[fireforeffect]

Old wells/fields ARE regenerating. You are correct that they are nowhere near their original level of production. And you will note that I did not say "rapidly refilling".

We will never run out of oil. We WILL reach a point where demand exceeds the ability to produce.

As to geologist believing in fossil fuels, Of course they do, that is what they were taught in school. Theory changes, the state of the art changes, NO reputable geologist believes in Dyson Unifromitarianism any more but is was taught in schools at one time. No sane person believes in socialism any more, but governments still practice it. There is no scientific evidence to support the theory of man made global warming, but it is still given wide credence. The list goes on.

The problem with most of these arguments about energy production is that they are usually Zero Sum arguments.
In the 60's we were going to run out of food in 50 years ( the Population Bomb), in the 70's it was the coming ice age (I still have the Nasty Geographics to prove it), in the 80's it was the Ozone Hole, in the 90's it was Global Warming, and now its Oil. Pick your crisis, it will be a non issue in a few years.

[Brilliant]

I do a lot of investing. One thing that they tell you is that it's very difficult to predict what's going to happen in the future from what happened in the past. Just when things look blackest, that's when the market goes up. Just when everyone is investing like crazy, that's when the market crashes.

Same thing here. If everyone is confident that there is no problem, and we don't need to worry, then that's when you need to worry.

It's sort of like a self-fulfilling prophecy, except in reverse. If everyone is worried, then they are careful, and nothing bad happens because they are careful. If they are convinced that the goodtimes will roll forever, then they are wasteful, and reckless, and that causes their own downfall.