How do you draw that conclusion, though? Technological changes do not necessarily come in a regular, predictable manner, or at the rate we'd all like. We've got 6 billion people in the world, though, and the world population is growing very quickly. Not only that, but capitalism is making countries which previously lived in poverty much richer, and as they get richer, they demand more oil. The demand is escalating very quickly.
If you read most of these posts, they basically say, "don't worry, there is no problem." When people start saying that kind of thing, you can bet that there WILL be a problem.
What you should ask is what market/political conditions would make it so that technological advances that society needs are developed.
A high enough price for a commodity will spur development on a cheaper alternative, but only if the rewards for the discovery of this alternative is large enough to make it worthwhile for the discoverer.
The reason I come to that conclusion is basically that the problems have ALREADY been solved. Let me state it one more time - Bio-diesel and other methods have already proven to be a FUNCTIONAL alternative.
Forget windmills and solar cells. We can already run the engines we have on other fuels, with some existing technology. NO - it's not cheap right now. But - when gas gets more expensive, it WILL BE MORE ECONOMICAL. You WILL NOT have to ride a bike.
The law of supply and demand (human nature) dictates that when people are willing to get an industry such as that started, they are willing to pay for it, and the prices eventually come down, as more companies want in on the business.
THAT is how I draw the conclusion. If we had as many bio-fuel staions as gas stations, the competition would keep BOTH prices low. We just have to be forced to choose something besides gas, and that will trigger what I'm telling you.
It's not just oil supply. It's that PLUS economics, PLUS human nature.