To: Our Readers Because of tomorrow's elections, this week's Evans-Novak Political Report will be delivered Wednesday -- a day later than usual. However, we send you this special update on tomorrow's major elections. Governor 2005 New Jersey: Late rumors of a staffer sleeping with him and then secretly obtaining an abortion will not be enough to sink the campaign of Sen. Jon Corzine (D), especially when his Republican opponent, Doug Forrester, is defending against his own late scandal, an alleged affair. Corzine should win by 3 to 5 points tomorrow. This is Jersey politics at its best (or worst). Recent election cycles have demonstrated that no amount of corruption can tip this state to a Republican. Leaning Democratic Retention. Virginia: Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D) should defeat former Atty. Gen. Jerry Kilgore (R) for governor. The wonder is that Kaine has not opened up a bigger lead in the polls by now. If Kaine does not win, then it is a sign of doom for Democrats here in the future. The reason is that Kilgore has run such a poor race, incumbent Gov. Mark Warner (D) is so wildly popular, and the climate for Republicans is so terrible right now. Meanwhile, Republicans should win the two down-ticket races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. They will also maintain control of the state House of Delegates, although they may lose two or three conservatives in Northern Virginia. Leaning Democratic Retention. Mayor 2005 Detroit: Allegations of voter fraud are already flying as Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D), beset by multiple scandals, hangs on for dear life. Kilpatrick has portrayed himself as a martyr being "lynched" by the media, but his liberal use of public money on manicures, expensive travel, and an SUV for himself makes it difficult for voters to feel sympathetic. We anticipate that he will be denied a second term by former Deputy Mayor Freman Hendrix (D). Leaning Hendrix. New York: Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) will trounce former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer (D) and have four more years in Gracie Mansion. By 2009, some new voters will be too young to remember the last time New York had a Democratic Mayor. Likely Republican Retention. St. Paul: Mayor Randy Kelly (DFL) will lose big to former City Councilman Chris Coleman (DFL). Kelly's cross-party endorsement of President Bush in last year's election appears to be his biggest problem, especially since everything is going wrong for Republicans at the moment. It hasn't helped him that St. Paul is enjoying relatively low taxes and low crime. Kelly won his first victory here by just 403 votes four years ago. Likely Coleman. Referenda 2005 California: The special recall election that brought Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) to power in 2003 was the clearest demonstration to date that all public polling in California is basically worthless. Polls on Schwarzenegger's slate of ballot propositions yield such wildly different results -- one proposition approaches two-thirds support in one poll and fails miserably in others -- that we will ignore them completely. We anticipate, first of all, that non-partisan redistricting (Prop 77) and state spending caps (Prop 76) will fail, having taken a terrible beating from campaigning members of Congress and unions. Likely Fail. Schwarzenegger's other two propositions -- on delayed teacher tenure (Prop 74) and paycheck protection for union members (Prop 75) -- are much harder to call. They really could go either way, particularly if pro-lifers show up in large enough numbers to vote for Prop 73 (see below). The correlation between supporters of 73 and the other propositions is very high. Still, ballot propositions must always be presumed to fail unless they show strong support. Leaning Fail. Despite fierce last-minute efforts and millions spent by Planned Parenthood, a separate referendum requiring parental notification for minors seeking abortions (Prop 73) will probably pass thanks to a strong effort to court Hispanics. Leaning Pass. Maine: After being struck down by the so-called "people's veto" in two previous elections, Maine's homosexual rights law will remain on the books this time. The people's veto, Question One, appears poised to fail as demographics have changed considerably in coastal Maine over the last seven years. The leading proponent of the ballot measure also made a fool of himself during a recent debate when he tried to shout down several hecklers. Leaning Fail. Ohio: State Issue 4, which, like California's Proposition 77, would adopt non-partisan redistricting, may be the most important item on any ballot tomorrow. It would be a major blow to the House Republican majority, as it would require that districts be drawn primarily so that they are competitive. But the measure's opponents have made a strong case that the formula is flawed. Other factors, such as compactness and the preservation of communities of interest, would be sacrificed for competitiveness. Leaning Fail. Texas: Voters will easily approve a referendum that adds a prohibition on same-sex marriage to their state constitution. Likely Pass. |
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