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As Democrats Lead Opposition, GOP Moderates May Control Vote
Washington Post ^ | 11/1/05 | Charles Babington

Posted on 10/31/2005 8:57:20 PM PST by nj26

Senate Democrats will lead the opposition to Samuel A. Alito Jr.'s Supreme Court nomination, but a handful of Republican moderates could ultimately decide its outcome, several analysts and lawmakers said yesterday.

The roughly half-dozen GOP senators who support abortion rights are scrutinizing Alito's dissent in a major 1991 abortion case. If they determine that his judicial record or his answers to questions signal a willingness to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling that legalized abortion, they will fall under heavy pressure to oppose him, said congressional scholars and analysts.

With Republicans holding 55 of the Senate's 100 seats -- and with Democrats raising the possibility of a filibuster, in which 41 senators could prevent a confirmation vote -- Alito can withstand few Republican defections if Democrats solidly oppose him. That is by no means certain, experts note, but it is possible.

"I think the moderate, or pro-choice, Republicans will likely determine the fate of this nomination," said University of North Carolina law professor Michael Gerhardt, a constitutional expert.

Julian E. Zelizer, a Boston University history professor who has written extensively on Congress, agreed. "This nomination is going to put pro-choice Republican senators in an extremely uncomfortable position," he said. "The reality is that most Republicans who are not strong pro-life advocates were much happier when the abortion issue was not on the front pages."

But Alito's nomination seems destined to put it there. In 1991, he was the lone dissenter in Planned Parenthood v. Casey , in which the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit struck down a Pennsylvania law that required a married woman to inform her husband before having an abortion.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: alito; rino; scotus; supremecourt
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RINO Tier 1: Snowe, Collins, Chafee, Specter, McCain (5) RINO Tier 2: Voinovich, Graham, DeWine, Warner, Hutchison (5)
1 posted on 10/31/2005 8:57:21 PM PST by nj26
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To: nj26
GOP Senators overwhelmingly confirm radical/activist/socialist Ginsburg without putting up any fight and the Dems are set to filibuster an originalist.

Sad state of affairs.

2 posted on 10/31/2005 9:03:58 PM PST by Mr. Mojo
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To: nj26

Unless the RINOs can find something scandulous in Alito's past, they may as well leave the party if the don't support him.

McCain is really screwed on this one. There is no way he can succesfully run for the Republican presidential nomination and vote against a highly qualified conservative supreme court nominee.


3 posted on 10/31/2005 9:04:49 PM PST by Maynerd
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To: Maynerd
Exactly. I expect Graham, DeWine and Warner to vote for Alito and McCain will eventually come home. We'll probably pick up Ben Nelson and Feingold and in the end Alito will get 64 or 65 votes in the Senate. All of this shouting is much ado about nothing. Every one knows that even if Roe were overturned, all that would do is allow each state to decide the issue. So the notion women are going to be forced into back alley illegal abortions is pure hogwash.

("Denny Crane: Gun Control? For Communists. She's a liberal. Can't hunt.")

4 posted on 10/31/2005 9:09:43 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
We'll probably pick up Ben Nelson and Feingold and in the end Alito will get 64 or 65 votes in the Senate.

While I'm guessing your numbers are right and that there will be quite a few Democrats that vote to confirm, why are you singling out Feingold? Nelson is a safe pick as he is probably the most "republican" of the Democrats, but I'm not understanding the Feingold pick. Has he said something I'm not aware of?

5 posted on 10/31/2005 9:14:44 PM PST by Bluegrass Conservative
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To: nj26

DeWine and Graham have already gone on the record - no filibuster deal.


6 posted on 10/31/2005 9:16:38 PM PST by CyberAnt (I BELIEVE CONGRESSMAN WELDON!)
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To: nj26

This is a perfect situation for us.

We win either way. We get Alito on the Court, or we out the RINO's forever in the Party. As well as put the Dems on the hot seats in red states under intense scrutiny. Then we use their choices to exact vengence in '06, '08 and '10 gaining enough seats to confirm Alito without them if he's denied now.

So, the question really should be, how many RINO's & DINO's feel lucky? ;-)


7 posted on 10/31/2005 9:17:53 PM PST by Soul Seeker
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To: nj26
The roughly half-dozen GOP senators who support abortion rights are scrutinizing Alito's dissent in a major 1991 abortion case. If they determine that his judicial record or his answers to questions signal a willingness to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling that legalized abortion, they will fall under heavy pressure to oppose him, said congressional scholars and analysts.

It is possible to be pro-choice and also originalist and anti-Roe. Reversal of Roe will just kick the issue back to the states where it should have been all along.

8 posted on 10/31/2005 9:18:46 PM PST by Unam Sanctam
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To: Bluegrass Conservative
He voted for Roberts. And he may end up voting for Alito. Of all the Democrats, he's so far reserved judgment on how he will vote which is a good sign. The extreme liberals are busily denouncing the President's new nominee and they would have come out against any conservative. So its Democrats in the Red and Purple states that would be comfortable with Bush's pick.

("Denny Crane: Gun Control? For Communists. She's a liberal. Can't hunt.")

9 posted on 10/31/2005 9:19:52 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: Bluegrass Conservative

Wisconsin is becoming a competitive state for Republicans. Feingold is aware of this, which is why he voted for Roberts. He does have the buffer of being the only Dem to vote against the war, it gives him a little leeway with the Dem base in his quest for their Presidential nomination.

Still, Roberts was one vote not likely to change balance. The question now is the calculation he'll make. Senatorial long term viability vs edging a competitive lead to be president. Two different constituencies to balance in this decision.


10 posted on 10/31/2005 9:22:04 PM PST by Soul Seeker
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To: goldstategop

Feingold is interested in running for president though. How does he vote for Roberts AND Alito (assuming Alito is a relatively close vote) and still try to appeal to Democrat primary voters?


11 posted on 10/31/2005 9:22:32 PM PST by Bluegrass Conservative
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To: goldstategop
Judge Alito would be only ONE of the Justices. I really don't know why the Pro folks would be so offended. Besides, I think there is a HUGE difference between notifing HUSBANDS and being totally against abortion!
12 posted on 10/31/2005 9:42:19 PM PST by singfreedom ("Victory at all costs,.......for without victory there is no survival."--Churchill--that's "Winston")
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To: goldstategop
Every one knows that even if Roe were overturned, all that would do is allow each state to decide the issue. So the notion women are going to be forced into back alley illegal abortions is pure hogwash.

I think you are correct, so what is really going on here? Could it be that the real fear is ending up with a Supreme Court that adheres to the Constitution as a principle across the board and an end to the ability to keep conservatives off of the courts simply because they are conservative? What a nightmare for "progressives".

13 posted on 11/01/2005 12:27:43 AM PST by Bahbah (Tony Schaffer is a hero)
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To: nj26

I would not count on Snowe or Collins. They may not be able to survive in their home states if they vote for Alito. I also think Specter will join the other side; he's been quite unambiguous about where he comes down on pro-life judges.


14 posted on 11/01/2005 12:40:11 AM PST by SpringheelJack
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To: nj26

I don't think Kay will dare vote against Alito. If she does, she is gone.


15 posted on 11/01/2005 12:43:28 AM PST by mathluv
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To: Bahbah
I think you are correct, so what is really going on here?

If Roe is overturned abortion will become illegal in many parts of the country, and heavily restricted in others. For one who believes in a woman's right to abortion, an objection to anti-Roe judges is then quite rational.

16 posted on 11/01/2005 12:48:57 AM PST by SpringheelJack
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To: mathluv
I don't think Kay will dare vote against Alito. If she does, she is gone.

Word. I can a handle a RINO from Maine or Rhode Island, but there's no excuse for one from Texas.

17 posted on 11/01/2005 12:50:39 AM PST by SpringheelJack
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To: SpringheelJack
'I can a handle a RINO from Maine or Rhode Island, but there's no excuse for one from Texas.'

Kay has ambitions. She wanted to run for gov, but that has been quashed (I think). I agree with you about the NE RINOs. McCain was wishy-washy on H&C last night. We will see about the others.

18 posted on 11/01/2005 1:00:34 AM PST by mathluv
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To: nj26
RINO Tier 1: Snowe, Collins, Chafee, Specter, McCain (5) RINO Tier 2: Voinovich, Graham, DeWine, Warner, Hutchison (5)

How can you leave Harkins off this list?

19 posted on 11/01/2005 2:55:50 AM PST by InterceptPoint
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To: nj26

How many democrat (DINO) Senators are there that are really in cahoots with the republicans????


20 posted on 11/01/2005 2:59:47 AM PST by cynicom
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