Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[buickmackane]

Don't apologize -- I've had that "Pressure Drop" song going through my head for the past several days, too!

[sheikdetailfeather]

Local Fox 35 in Orlando said that if the cold front is not strong enough and does not come down far enough it will be a whole different ball game like Charley. We all need to stay tuned. They have one model bringing it in around metro Orlando. The rest bring it in around Naples. But since there will be very little time to change plans it is best to go to a safe place before it is too hard to do so. This station is saying 25mph sustained winds north of Orlando as it is, but they cannot know for sure that the track will not shift north.

[laz]

What strikes me from the floater is how large the eye expanded while she sat on land. Now that it's back over water, it's defining itself again. I'm sure it'll try to tighten and shrink and she regains some strength. According to NHC, she was going through EWRC the whole time she was over land.

[HoHoeHeaux]

Oh yes the book!

No I am in KY but for some reason my heart has been with the Cajuns all my life. They are a wonderful culture and I so want everyone to read this book. Just to be aware of what we are losing. And to help if we can. The people themselves ask for nothing...they are totally self sufficient. But if we lose them, we all lose. Thanks for noticing my tagline! No one else has. It's such an important book.

I am glad you have a good support base. And will pray that Mom will get it together. I admire you for what you must have given up for those kids. I bet they are worth it tho (o:

[laz]

If the front doesn't push her, and she continues along the NNE trajectory she's been drifting along ever since crossing the coastline, I can see her coming in around Punta Gorda... like someone we remember from last year.

But if the front catches her, I don't think she'll come in anywhere north of Naples.

That being said, I'm watching the floater right now, and at 7:15, the current last frame, it looks like she shifts to the right of the NNE trajectory she's been following. I'm gonna have to stay up a while longer and see more frames to make sure, but I think the front just started pushing her.

[buickmackane]

I noticed your tagline, but wasn't sure how to comment because when I went to your profile page, you chose a logo of the US Flag instead of a state flag.

I'm saying my own "Bayou Farewell." I gave Louisiana my very best shot for two years, but now we're going back to Massachusetts. It's a crying shame because we really do like it here -- we'll miss the mild winters the most -- but since Katrina and Rita, it's become impossible for me to make a living in a city where we've been "displaced by the Displaced."

Like I said, they'll have to add me to the snowstorm ping list, sigh...

[sheikdetailfeather]

I went in on weather.com and viewed the hour by hour wind speeds for my area on Monday. From 11 to 2pm I get 50mph winds. Strange since the storm is supposed to be off the coast by then. Anyway, if it does shift north, I am not staying in this mobile home.

[onyx]

That accuweather guy, Joe Bastardi, just said it's first the Keys then Naples.

Are y'all getting any "weather" (rain or wind) right now?

[laz]

No rain here in Cutler Ridge. It was bone dry here all of Saturday, and the sun even came out, but it rained a few times on Friday. A couple of hours ago, I could hear some light breezes, but it's quite still now.

[onyx]

Interesting. Since I can't sleep, I think I'll check the weather channel.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Would you believe no rain yet here north of Orlando? It is strangely quiet and gloomy here. Gray sky and no birds tweeting as they seem to know what is going to happen. Thanks for the update on Bastardi. It helps to know the latest. I am listening to the all night news13 Orlando channel and the regular locals don't come on until about 8am. They seem to conflict at times regarding the wind speeds and so forth.

[onyx]

Wilma has a mind of her own. Hanging over the Yucatan Peninsula all these hours. Cancun has been battered, but reportedly, the hotel structures held up nicely and NO DEATHS!

I'll have a look at the weather channel and see what their radar shows.

[onyx]

From what I see on the weather channel's radar, there are no rains bands on either of you right now.

They have issued a hurricane warning, for the Keys, which they said means hurricane weather is anticipated with 24 hours.

I guess what ya'll are having is the calm before the storm?

[sheikdetailfeather]

Calm is right! I just went outside and not even a cricket is chirping. All creatures are hiding..except for the frogs.

[Caipirabob]

Pretty cool. That's an interesting tradition. OTOH, I like it somewhere else, the beer smell would get to me the next day. ; )

[Caipirabob]

I'm so tired, I thought you typed "Latina Oktoberfest".

Hmmm...that could actually be pretty fun, and I've already got my Latina for the party!

[laz]

There have been 7 deaths reported in Cancun, I believe, and there are reports of severe damage to some of the hotels. The hotel zone seems to be in bad shape, and the beaches are gone.

http://www.cancuntravelonline.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1251

[onyx]

LOL! The frogs are out and busy?

They have just issued hurricane warnings to Long Boat Key and north to Jupiter on the east coast of Florida.

They said Wilma's outer bands which reach 200 miles are still 150 miles off Key West.

[onyx]

Oh dear. Joe Bastardi is behind in the news. I hate that.

[laz]

Not just the Keys. All of Southern Florida has been under a hurricane warning since 11 PM last night, including the east coast.