Local Fox 35 in Orlando said that if the cold front is not strong enough and does not come down far enough it will be a whole different ball game like Charley. We all need to stay tuned. They have one model bringing it in around metro Orlando. The rest bring it in around Naples. But since there will be very little time to change plans it is best to go to a safe place before it is too hard to do so. This station is saying 25mph sustained winds north of Orlando as it is, but they cannot know for sure that the track will not shift north.
But if the front catches her, I don't think she'll come in anywhere north of Naples.
That being said, I'm watching the floater right now, and at 7:15, the current last frame, it looks like she shifts to the right of the NNE trajectory she's been following. I'm gonna have to stay up a while longer and see more frames to make sure, but I think the front just started pushing her.