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Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)
NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 10/22/2005 1:25:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24


TOPICS: Front Page News; Mexico; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: alpha; hurricane; tropical; wilma
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To: dirtboy

Don't apologize -- I've had that "Pressure Drop" song going through my head for the past several days, too!


441 posted on 10/23/2005 12:37:04 AM PDT by buickmackane (Pineville, LA)
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To: buickmackane

Local Fox 35 in Orlando said that if the cold front is not strong enough and does not come down far enough it will be a whole different ball game like Charley. We all need to stay tuned. They have one model bringing it in around metro Orlando. The rest bring it in around Naples. But since there will be very little time to change plans it is best to go to a safe place before it is too hard to do so. This station is saying 25mph sustained winds north of Orlando as it is, but they cannot know for sure that the track will not shift north.


442 posted on 10/23/2005 12:40:39 AM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (Apopka, 20 miles north of Orlando)
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To: VeniVidiVici

What strikes me from the floater is how large the eye expanded while she sat on land. Now that it's back over water, it's defining itself again. I'm sure it'll try to tighten and shrink and she regains some strength. According to NHC, she was going through EWRC the whole time she was over land.


443 posted on 10/23/2005 12:44:01 AM PDT by laz (Miami, FL (Cutler Ridge))
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To: exhaustedmomma

Oh yes the book!

No I am in KY but for some reason my heart has been with the Cajuns all my life. They are a wonderful culture and I so want everyone to read this book. Just to be aware of what we are losing. And to help if we can. The people themselves ask for nothing...they are totally self sufficient. But if we lose them, we all lose. Thanks for noticing my tagline! No one else has. It's such an important book.

I am glad you have a good support base. And will pray that Mom will get it together. I admire you for what you must have given up for those kids. I bet they are worth it tho (o:


444 posted on 10/23/2005 12:49:50 AM PDT by HoHoeHeaux ("Bayou Farewell")
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To: sheikdetailfeather
If the front doesn't push her, and she continues along the NNE trajectory she's been drifting along ever since crossing the coastline, I can see her coming in around Punta Gorda... like someone we remember from last year.

But if the front catches her, I don't think she'll come in anywhere north of Naples.

That being said, I'm watching the floater right now, and at 7:15, the current last frame, it looks like she shifts to the right of the NNE trajectory she's been following. I'm gonna have to stay up a while longer and see more frames to make sure, but I think the front just started pushing her.

445 posted on 10/23/2005 1:04:45 AM PDT by laz (Miami, FL (Cutler Ridge))
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To: HoHoeHeaux

I noticed your tagline, but wasn't sure how to comment because when I went to your profile page, you chose a logo of the US Flag instead of a state flag.

I'm saying my own "Bayou Farewell." I gave Louisiana my very best shot for two years, but now we're going back to Massachusetts. It's a crying shame because we really do like it here -- we'll miss the mild winters the most -- but since Katrina and Rita, it's become impossible for me to make a living in a city where we've been "displaced by the Displaced."

Like I said, they'll have to add me to the snowstorm ping list, sigh...


446 posted on 10/23/2005 1:09:50 AM PDT by buickmackane (Pineville, LA)
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To: laz

I went in on weather.com and viewed the hour by hour wind speeds for my area on Monday. From 11 to 2pm I get 50mph winds. Strange since the storm is supposed to be off the coast by then. Anyway, if it does shift north, I am not staying in this mobile home.


447 posted on 10/23/2005 1:12:08 AM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (Apopka, 20 miles north of Orlando)
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To: sheikdetailfeather; laz

That accuweather guy, Joe Bastardi, just said it's first the Keys then Naples.

Are y'all getting any "weather" (rain or wind) right now?


448 posted on 10/23/2005 1:18:53 AM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx

No rain here in Cutler Ridge. It was bone dry here all of Saturday, and the sun even came out, but it rained a few times on Friday. A couple of hours ago, I could hear some light breezes, but it's quite still now.


449 posted on 10/23/2005 1:22:37 AM PDT by laz (Miami, FL (Cutler Ridge))
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To: laz


Interesting. Since I can't sleep, I think I'll check the weather channel.


450 posted on 10/23/2005 1:28:01 AM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx

Would you believe no rain yet here north of Orlando? It is strangely quiet and gloomy here. Gray sky and no birds tweeting as they seem to know what is going to happen. Thanks for the update on Bastardi. It helps to know the latest. I am listening to the all night news13 Orlando channel and the regular locals don't come on until about 8am. They seem to conflict at times regarding the wind speeds and so forth.


451 posted on 10/23/2005 1:28:58 AM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (Apopka, 20 miles north of Orlando)
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To: sheikdetailfeather
Wilma has a mind of her own. Hanging over the Yucatan Peninsula all these hours. Cancun has been battered, but reportedly, the hotel structures held up nicely and NO DEATHS!

I'll have a look at the weather channel and see what their radar shows.
452 posted on 10/23/2005 1:31:27 AM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: sheikdetailfeather; laz

From what I see on the weather channel's radar, there are no rains bands on either of you right now.

They have issued a hurricane warning, for the Keys, which they said means hurricane weather is anticipated with 24 hours.

I guess what ya'll are having is the calm before the storm?


453 posted on 10/23/2005 1:35:40 AM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx

Calm is right! I just went outside and not even a cricket is chirping. All creatures are hiding..except for the frogs.


454 posted on 10/23/2005 1:39:15 AM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (Apopka, 20 miles north of Orlando)
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To: NautiNurse
Pretty cool. That's an interesting tradition. OTOH, I like it somewhere else, the beer smell would get to me the next day. ; )
455 posted on 10/23/2005 1:40:01 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Democrats.. Socialists..Commies..Traitors...Who can tell the difference?)
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To: AniGrrl
I'm so tired, I thought you typed "Latina Oktoberfest".

Hmmm...that could actually be pretty fun, and I've already got my Latina for the party!

456 posted on 10/23/2005 1:41:24 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Democrats.. Socialists..Commies..Traitors...Who can tell the difference?)
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To: onyx
There have been 7 deaths reported in Cancun, I believe, and there are reports of severe damage to some of the hotels. The hotel zone seems to be in bad shape, and the beaches are gone.

http://www.cancuntravelonline.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1251

457 posted on 10/23/2005 1:42:19 AM PDT by laz (Miami, FL (Cutler Ridge))
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To: sheikdetailfeather

LOL! The frogs are out and busy?

They have just issued hurricane warnings to Long Boat Key and north to Jupiter on the east coast of Florida.

They said Wilma's outer bands which reach 200 miles are still 150 miles off Key West.


458 posted on 10/23/2005 1:43:36 AM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: laz


Oh dear. Joe Bastardi is behind in the news. I hate that.


459 posted on 10/23/2005 1:44:37 AM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx

Not just the Keys. All of Southern Florida has been under a hurricane warning since 11 PM last night, including the east coast.


460 posted on 10/23/2005 1:45:43 AM PDT by laz (Miami, FL (Cutler Ridge))
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