Posted on 10/16/2005 12:36:02 PM PDT by flixxx
Hagel lags in Iowa '08 parade
BY JAKE THOMPSON
WASHINGTON - In two weeks, when Sen. Chuck Hagel takes his first step on the Iowa section of the 2008 presidential campaign trail, he will find a hard, well-trod path.
Among fellow Republicans, New York Gov. George Pataki is preparing for his third Iowa visit. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas has popped in at least five times. So has Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee is headlining a big GOP dinner soon in Iowa.
Democrats weighing White House bids have been tramping across the Hawkeye State, too.
John Edwards, former North Carolina senator and 2004 vice presidential nominee, has headlined three campaign-style events in Iowa. Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana has visited twice. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the 2004 presidential nominee, dropped in recently.
"Hagel's slow on the track," said Roger Hughes, chairman of Iowa Presidential Watch, a conservative group. "He needs to wade into the crowd."
Hagel, a Nebraska Republican, has said he will seriously consider running for president. But he seems to be in no hurry.
He has done little since he raced through a busy three-day tour of New Hampshire in May that looked like a pre-presidential scouting trip.
On Oct. 30, he will deliver a foreign policy speech at Iowa State University in Ames. But with Iowa's first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses 27 months away, other White House wannabes are doing more than giving speeches in the state.
Some are trying to build early organizations, sign up volunteers and buttonhole party officials, Hughes said. "The presidential campaign's already begun."
Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford echoed that: "There certainly has been a parade of people. They're using any opportunity to come in and talk to people here."
Political analysts say that because neither major party will have an incumbent president or vice president running in 2008 - for the first time since 1952 - the contest is starting early.
For someone like Hagel, who won't make a presidential decision until a year from now, the pressure is already on, they say.
"He doesn't seem to be doing the full Kabuki dance the others are doing," said Charlie Cook, editor of a political newsletter in Washington.
For example, Sen. George Allen, R-Va., past chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is using those connections to hold fundraisers for his 2006 re-election bid in states outside his own, including early primary states such as New Hampshire and South Carolina. He has been to Iowa as well.
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican, has hired Mike Murphy, a veteran political consultant who worked on Sen. John McCain's 2000 presidential bid.
Romney's political action committee has donated thousands of dollars to Michigan GOP candidates, and he recently visited there. He also has spoken in New Hampshire and is headed to Iowa.
Brownback has been perhaps the most visible. Besides appearing at Iowa events, he has been to New Hampshire and Michigan, and he isn't shy about expressing his interest in possibly seeking the GOP nomination by touting his social conservative credentials.
Then there's McCain.
The Arizona Republican, who won the 2000 New Hampshire primary and remains popular across the country, said last week that he is interested in the 2008 race. That vaulted him to the head of the pack, said Cook and others.
Still, while Hagel lags by comparison, he has a chance - better than some - of winning the nomination if he gets into the race, Cook said.
Cook divides the possible GOP candidates into three groupings: sacred, secular and "bridge."
Brownback and Huckabee are in the sacred group as religious conservatives. McCain, Hagel, Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani are the secularists. Frist and Allen are bridge candidates, those viewed as capable of appealing to both religious conservatives and secularists.
If Hagel is known outside Nebraska, it is probably for his criticism of the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq war.
But it's unclear whether that will help or hurt him because Iraq's status in 2008 cannot be known. Voters might not want to be reminded how poorly planned the war was, Cook said, or they might embrace Hagel's internationalist outlook and early warnings.
Hagel's biggest challenge would be overcoming McCain. Both are viewed as straight-talking mavericks, Cook said.
Yet many conservatives loathe McCain because of his moderate stance on many issues. The only way Cook sees McCain winning would be if New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, a popular figure among many Democrats, looked to be her party's pick.
In that case, Cook said, some conservatives might back McCain as the only Republican with broad enough appeal to attract independents and Democrats.
Short of that scenario, Cook said, "The question is, can Hagel hang in there long enough for McCain to fade?"
Mike Buttry, Hagel's spokesman, parried a question about whether the trip to Ames might be related to 2008. Hagel planned to return to Nebraska that weekend anyway, in part to attend the Nebraska-Oklahoma football game, thus making a trip to Iowa easy, Buttry said.
"It worked into his schedule, and he was honored to be invited," Buttry said.
No matter what Hagel says, he can't help but set off presidential radar sensors, said Dianne Bystrom, a political scientist and the director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State.
"You step foot in the state, suddenly you are signaling you're interested in running for president," she said. "We're always in kind of election mode."
"Hagel, a Nebraska Republican..."
That's a matter of opinion.
He's got as much chance of getting the GOP nomination as Liebermann had in getting the Dem nod in 2004.
Hagel lags? Well I must say that brings a smile to my face.
He sells his soul for TV time, presumably with an eye to '08, and in doing so throws away his chances.
Sure, Nelson is technically a Democrat. But then, Hagel is TECHNICALLY a Republican.
The RINOs will loose this time around.
Hmm, for some reason I thought Hagel was a democrat. Wonder why?
All the political clowns are getting together.
This is serious. This means that the Old Media will have their Republican sources cut by 50% - only McCain will be left.
Maybe CBS will hire him.
I'm not sure who would vote for Hagel for anything, in light of his recent performance.
This Iowan can't stand the guy.
I would consider supporting him, if (big if) there's no one better. He takes a more restrained position on foreign policy, and he's a solid fiscal conservative (well more conservative than Bush).
Hagel is a backstabbing, grandstanding pr!ck just like Mcain. Neither of them gets my support, primaries OR general. Even though I like Rudy on security issues, he is way too far left on social issues.
What is a conservative to do?
Hagel is McCain lite.
Who?
Oh good lord! it's 3 1/2 years away.
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