Posted on 10/13/2005 5:57:21 PM PDT by joesbucks
Blackwell woos the Statehouse types
Can good polls (and John McCain) bring old-school Republicans aboard?
By Dan Williamson / October 13, 2005
"We're inviting people to make new friends": Blackwell's spokesman says lobbyists should have the "opportunity" to back him
It was another ho-hum week for Ken Blackwell. Yet another statewide poll showed the Ohio secretary of state with a commanding lead for the 2006 Republican gubernatorial nomination. Yet another national Republican celebrity, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, endorsed Blackwell's candidacy.
And in Columbus, Republicans establishment types continued to silently wring their hands.
Blackwell's biggest weakness—and so far his only weakness—is that the Republicans who have worked alongside him on Capitol Square for the past dozen years have yet to embrace his campaign. Blackwell fever might be sweeping the state, and even the nation, but it hasn't made its way into the corridors of power Downtown.
Traditionally, Republican power brokers—lobbyists, consultants and businesspeople—have coalesced around their favorite candidate for governor, and that candidate has tended to go on to win the nomination. For '06, there are two Republicans—Ohio Auditor Betty Montgomery and Attorney General Jim Petro—with whom they feel comfortable.
But Blackwell scares the hell out of them.
As the May 2 primary date draws nearer, Blackwell is seeing what he can do to change that. After years of positioning himself as an outsider, Blackwell is gauging his support from the inside.
Even from old enemies.
Jeff Ledbetter, Blackwell's fundraiser, dialed up lobbyist Tom Green last month to see if Green would be interested in attending a Blackwell event.
Green and Blackwell are both Republicans, but the similarities end there. Green is a moderate, and Blackwell hails from the far right. The two have sparred publicly in the past, and Green is vocally supporting anybody but Blackwell in the Ohio governor's race.
"Mr. Blackwell and I have not spoken to each other," Green said.
He declined to pick a favorite between Blackwell's two rivals. Green said he's supporting "Betty Petro or Jim Montgomery."
Ledbetter said he wanted to give Green the opportunity to rethink his choices.
"Everybody is realizing that it's inevitable that Ken is gonna be the nominee," Ledbetter said, "and they want to support the winner."
It isn't inevitable, but a Blackwell nomination certainly looks more probable with each passing day.
According to a Dispatch poll published Sunday, 32 percent of registered Republican voters favor Blackwell, compared to 18 percent for Petro and 16 percent for Montgomery.
That survey came on the heels of last Thursday's surprise endorsement from McCain.
Blackwell's candidacy had already received enthusiastic support around the country from Christian conservatives and anti-tax crusaders. But McCain is a hero to Republican moderates—and even to some Democrats—and is often vilified by conservatives who share Blackwell's hard-right ideology.
By touting his new alliance with McCain, whom Blackwell described as "a national hero and a man of integrity," the secretary of state demonstrated that he's no longer singularly focusing his campaign on galvanizing the right.
""He's trying to move more to the middle, feeling that he's got pretty much the conservative base locked up," said Green. "And that's smart on his part."
The question is whether Blackwell can convince Capitol Square Republicans he's someone with whom they can work.
Republican legislative leaders view Blackwell as a lazy opportunist who occasionally swoops in to criticize their hard work. GOP lobbyists fear Blackwell is a Christian crusader who would like to turn Ohio into a theocracy. Both groups have had their integrity questioned by Blackwell, and neither appreciated it.
"I think that there are people who are concerned because he says straight out that he doesn't want to talk to special interests and lobbyists," said veteran Republican lobbyist Neil Clark.
Bill Antonoplos, another Republican lobbyist, said he has no gripe with Blackwell, but he acknowledged most Statehouse types—himself included—are more comfortable with Petro and Montgomery.
"The consultants or lobbyists or whatever," Antonoplos said, "the ones that I was around broke down originally for Jim and for Betty, just because they were the leaders, and I don't think any of them originally had given Ken the opportunity to win this race."
Blackwell spokesman Gene Pierce acknowledged many in the Republican establishment initially looked more favorably upon Petro and Montgomery, but Blackwell is now reaching out to those people.
"We're inviting people to make new friends," Pierce said. "We are trying to explain the facts of this race and explain to people that they need to consider the guy that's gonna win this. Do we expect every lobbyist to help us? No. But we're gonna give them all the opportunity."
Clark said Democrats are perpetuating a myth that moderate establishment types like himself are considering running into Blackwell's open arms.
"They're putting that out there because they're trying to create this situation where they want it to be Ken Blackwell," Clark said. "If my party gets some common sense and the moderates come back into play, it ain't gonna happen."
But if it does?
"I don't know that a lot of us have decided what we're gonna do in a situation like this," said Green, "whether we shop around for another candidate or whether we stick with Mr. Blackwell."
Green declined to say what he would do, but Antonoplos said a number of Republican lobbyists will switch teams and support whichever Democrat wins the nomination, Congressman Ted Strickland or Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman.
"Hell, these people are hedging their bets and going over to the Democrats," Antonoplos said. "People are hedging their bets like it's going out of style. I know of many Republican lobbyists who are meeting with Strickland—and some of whom are meeting with the mayor."
Antonoplos said he's a "loyal, loyal Republican" and will support his party's nominee, but Clark would make no such promise.
"You're asking the wrong puppy that question," Clark said.
"See, the only reason you're asking is you know the answer. What you want me to do is put it in black and white. And you know, I'm just not in the mood today to do that."
So, if a man of God starts calls RINO's men of integrity and moving toward the middle, is he really being truthful?
Ken Blackwell, who are you?
He's a politician that I like.....but he's still a politician
Calling McCain a man of integrity?
He's wooing the rino vote.
Ken Blackwell knows when not to burn bridges. You burn them once you have crossed them and not before. Ken Blackwell is impressive and is solidly conservative.
He would be a fool to turn down a McCain endorsement. You couldn't dislike McCain any more than I do, but it's not as if he's going to let McCain tell him what to do after he gets elected.
Some voters who don't know McCain or have only read what the MSM have to say think he's a war hero. So, if it gets a few more votes, why not, as long as he doesn't sell his soul to him.
When he calls McCain a man of integrity, he's sold his soul.
No, never a dem. Would like to see Kasich get in. Rumors are he would if Deters or Montgomery bow out.
you seem to be giving up on Blackwell really quickly. What if Kasich throws a bone towards McCain too?
Like it or not, McCain is a rather powerful Senator, he is on TV all the time, he does get his share of headlines, why NOT have him praising you?
If anyone is going to get the RINO infiltrated Ohio GOP around to Blackwell's side, it's going to have to be someone like McCain to do it. Just the way it is.
kasich is waiting wayyyy too late into the game to even worry about this.
Blackwell is a fool. He is playing to the media types and they are playing up Blackwell just as they did Howard Dean for President in the fall of 2003.
It is a typical media response. They create self fulfilling polls.. Just like the polls that showed Howard Dean was a shoe in for the Democratic Presidential nomination in the fall of 2003. Remember the media stories in October, November and into December of 2003? Howard Dean had organized the biggest web support team in history and was rolling in money. It was Deans nomination to lose. When the media found out they were totally wrong in Iowa they used their cameras to paint Dean as a buffoon.
But Kerry in the fall of 2003 like Montgomery in the fall of 2005 knows that winning primaries is about organization. It is about precinct workers who get out the faithful voters. With Taft in the toilet, the turn out in the Republican primary of 2006 will be small. The election will be decided by the candidate with the grass roots organization that knows how to get out the Republican voters. That takes door to door work. Spots on the air and free media coverage is of little value in this set of circumstances.
The media likes to tell politicians how powerful the Media is, and many like Blackwell believe them. Blackwell even believes the media when they tell Blackwell that a McCain endorsement would greatly increase Blackwell's chances of wining the primary. That is why Blackwell sought and acquired the McCain endorsement.
Those of us who understand what a negative a McCain endorsement is for a Republican primary in Ohio, know how ignorant it was for Blackwell to go after the McCain endorsement.
Blackwell is playing in a the big leagues with T ball skills learned playing against T ball opposition. Seeking a McCain endorsement has to rank up their with some of the dumbest moves in political history.
Montgomery has signed up nearly all of the party workers who were part of the Bush Team in 2004. Blackwell has no organized team at the local level. he is depending on the media. It shows his political ignorance and naivety.
The media is feeding Blackwell bull Crap. They say Blackwell is the one with a hammer lock on the nomination. They said Howard Dean had a hammerlock on the Democratic nomination in the fall 2003. They are wrong.
Typical media... They imagine they are powerful. They convince ignorant candidates that they are powerful. Candidates who fall for the media pitch are very surprised when they learn the truth.
One final point. When the media finally gets the word that they are wrong they always blame the candidate. By next summer Blackwell will be a media joke. They will do to Blackwell what they did to Dean..... make him into a joke for moderates and Democrats.
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