Posted on 10/12/2005 3:30:30 PM PDT by RWR8189
October 12, 2005--The televised debate is over and the race to replace Mark Warner as Virginia Governor remains too close to call. Republican Jerry Kilgore attracts 46% of the statewide vote while Democrat Tim Kaine earns 44%.
Two weeks ago, the two leading candidates were tied at 45%.
Jerry Kilgore has been at 45% or 46% in four of the six Rasmussen Reports Virginia election polls this year. Once, he was above that at 47% and once below that at 43%.
Kaine's support was at 39% to 41% in the first four Rasmussen Reports Virginia election polls. His numbers have improved a bit for the two most recent election polls.
Independent candidate Russell Potts attracts just one percent (1%) of the statewide vote.
Just 53% of Virginia's Likely Voters have read, seen, or heard any news stories about Sunday night's televised debate. A plurality of those had watched little or none of the debate as it was televised.
Among those who had heard about the debate, 40% thought Kaine won while 34% thought Kilgore did a better job. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Kaine supporters thought their man won. Seventy-three (73%) of Kilgore supporters thought the same about their candidate.
Just 11% of all voters consider the debate very important in terms of impacting their vote.
Since the election is drawing closer, Rasmussen Reports made a slight change in the methodology for this survey compared to earlier Virginia election polls.
The methodological change had little impact on the relative support for Kilgore and Kaine, but it sharply diminished support for Russell Potts. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of those who initially said they would vote for Potts answered a follow-up question indicating they would vote for either Kilgore or Kaine.
Seventy-one percent (71%) of Virginia voters Approve of the way that Warner is performing his duties as Governor. Although the state typically leans Republican in national elections, just 50% of Virginia voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job.
Fifty-three percent (53%) of Virginia voters have a favorable opinion of Kilgore. Fifty-six percent (56%) say the same about Kaine. Potts is viewed favorably by 28%.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
Republicans wins then...because Republican vote is always under represented. Just ask Roy Barnes (D) who lost to Sonny Perdue (R) (Georgia).
Clinton's visit will be worth at least five points----for Kilgore.
Sounds like Kaine is piggybacking off the immense popularity of Mark Warner...
Which I have yet to figure out...
Same here. Kaine is nothing like Warner, except for their party affiliation. Gotta love Northern VA I guess......
"Kaine is nothing like Warner, except for their party affiliation. Gotta love Northern VA I guess......"
Here's a possible explanation: the northern Virginia suburbs, which are increasingly populated by Yankee transplants (I know, I used to live there), some of whom bring their liberal viewpoints with them. That's as good an explanation I can think of to explain why President Bush didn't slam Kerry in that state last year.
Not as many as you think. W got 72% of the vote in my NOVA county. Fairtax and Arlington are always oversampled. Kilgore has lots of Dem support in SW VA.
For much of Virginia's history, serving as governor was viewed as the culmination of a distinguished career. However, In the last couple decades, almost every governor has been angling for their next office, like senator or Vice President. The result is governors who don't always spend their time in office looking after the business of the Commonwealth. I think Virginia would be much better off if they allowed governors to stand for reelection once.
If he's nothing like Warner I guess the Commonwealth's teenage girls would be safe at least.
I can't believe it's that close. Kaine is somewhere to the left of Hillary, he should be a non-starter.
Actually for polling, it's probably pretty accurate. But let's look at some things:
1) At this point in 2001, Warner was leading by about 15% in the polls. He won with less than 5%. (my numbers may be off, but they're in the ballpark).
2) This shows Kilgore regaining the lead. Meaning the momentum is on our side. Couple that with the FOP endorsement, the Fairfax Chamber endorsement and the NRA endorsement. That's good news.
3) And don't forget what the RATS and the media tried to pull on us last year on Election Day. All day long they were releasing only exit polls that showed Kerry ahead. In the end, Bush blew him out of the water in Virginia.
Bottom line?
Believe the numbers, but work like we're 10 pts. down. We're in the home stretch and every day counts.
That really all depends on the Governor. It was certainly true of Wilder and Gilmore. But George Allen was completely focused on the business of the state. And really, even though Warner's looking ahead, you can't say he's neglected his duty. (and it takes a lot for me to say nice things about him).
As for allowing a Governor to stand a second term, that comes up about every other year in the General Assembly. It just never makes it very far. But I agree, this one term at a time thing is not helpful.
Just hope my VCDL buds get the chip off their shoulder before November.
Kane was the better debater, and considerably more articulate, but Kilgore was rather good at exposing Kane as too left to be in the Virginia mainstream.
I agree with you that Northern Virginia is trending Dem. Fairfax County, the most populous county in the state, went Dem (Kerry) for the first time in 40 years. However, Bush won Virginia handily in 2004 with 53.7% to 45.5%. He increased his percentage from 2000 when he received 52.5% of the vote. Turnout will be key in this off year election.
Kaine is originally from the Midwest, growing up in Kansas, graduating from the University of Missouri and Harvard Law Scool, but his wife is the daughter of a former Rep VA Governor, Linwood Holton. Kilgore is a native Virginian who attended school in Virginia, including law scholl at William and Mary.
The old school Dems will vote for Kilgore.
I'd even argue that Allen made some poor choices because he was only working on a four year time horizon. The total revenues lost from the car tax was more like $1 billion than the $500 million he initially estimated, but he didn't have to worry about that because he was gone by the time the car tax cut was fully phased in. Moreover, choice of the car tax transferred most of the money to pay for the cut to local governments in Northern Virginia. Cutting income or sales tax by $1 billion would have spread the tax cuts more evenly around the state and wouldn't have rewarded Northern Virginia counties for having insanely high personal property tax rates, but northern Virginia is where the swing votes are in a Senate race.
Now that I've spewed what sounds like democratic talking points, I'll admit that I lived in Southwest Virginia so that colors my opinions on the car tax. And despite my rant, I voted for Allen for both Governor and Senator and wish we could have just let Allen cast both of the Virginia votes in the Senate.
Kaine was certainly more butch. I kept having to turn the debate off because Kilgore made me nervous.
Part of it was the accent. I admit it. I struggle against letting that affect me as a Yankee, but it is tough. But correcting for that, it was I think the way I called it.
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