Posted on 10/10/2005 10:17:52 AM PDT by Jeff Head
The PLAN is readying the former Russian carrier Varyag for something. These pictures show the exterior painting now being completed in the standard PLAN surface combatant colors, with the superstructure preparing to be painted.
They have been working on the project in their naval shipyards for over two year now.
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Are you thinking of the Joint Strike Fighter?
Their ultimate agression will exact a cost to put down...just like they all do. And that cost will once again be paid in American blood and treasure. Better to put them down now with a Reagan-like approach, IMHO, when the cost in both will be much less.
Thanks so much for those kind words about the series. Been trying to warn and talk about this growing threat for the last 6 years.
Dalian is right. I pop up there for a biz trip maybe twice a year, it's right there in the port, can't miss it, it's quite the tourist attraction :)
BINGO! I think you're right on target. This would give China a carrier task force as the centerpiece of an invasion of Taiwan, used to screen their amphibious transports. Though it would be a full generation behind the Nimitz and Improved Nimitz (Roosevelt) class carrier task forces defended by Ticonderoga CGs and Arleigh Burke DDGs, screened by one or two Seawolf or Improved LA SSNs, it would still be a major threat. Though I wouldn't give a "Varyag" or whatever the red Chinese call it and it's escorts a snowballs chance in hell of withstanding a concerted primary attack with TASMs (Tomahawks) launched from a Nimitz Carrier task force, with a syncronized or secondary launching of Harpoons from a full squadron of F/A-18 Hornets or Super Hornet D's. And I don't believe the "Varyag" force could successfully take on one of our Nimitz groups. Between the air to air interceptor capability of our F-14s and F-18s, the Sea Sparrow and more advanced SAMs that the CG and DDG screens have, and the SAMs the carriers themselves have, and the CIWS 20mm radar guided gun armament every U.S. warship has, and chaff and flare decoys after those, I don't think any Chinese cruise missiles could get through all that unless is was a massive strike of over 150 or more missiles at the same time, and that would be very difficult for them to pull off. And to do that, they'd have to get their planes close enough, and oue AEWACs would spot and direct fighters to shoot them down LONG before they'd be in range to launch. The Chinese naval and submarine force doesn't have the capability to launch a syncronized attack of that magnitude. That's my take on it anyway. This ship would be a threat in a Taiwan invasion though, nothing to be taken likely, but not an equal to a Nimitz by any stretch.
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The Russians were flying MiG-29s and SU-27s off of them, ones that were slightly modified to be able to launch off that sloped ramp. If the Chinese didn't purchase or build some of those to use with the "Varyag", I'm sure they could put something on them that would be better than the Yak-38U Forgers. I seem to recall there was a much improved Russian V/STOL aircraft that was more comperable to an F-16, though slower and less maneuverable, but better than any Yak-38. When it was Russian anyway, it was able to carry at least a full squadron, maybe two, of SU-27s or MiG-29s. And some Yak-38 and a large helicopter compliment, which in an invasion would be a big threat too in supporting amphibious operations. So there is that too.
hehehe...I undertsand. I can barely keep my own around. Thank your Dad for me, and again, many thanks to you.
IF there is a military conflict between us and the Chinese someday, that carrier will be a prime target of course, and if I was the military leader in that theater, I would send the Seawolf, Connecticut and Carter out with orders to seek and destroy all Chinese carriers. They're so quite the Chinese have no sonar that could detect them, and frankly, we could sink them before a war, and in deep water, the Chinese could never prove it was us that did it, because there would be no evidence, especailly if it was done in deep enough water. Just a thought.
But the Chinese carrier would definitely complicate things if they got it operational.
I agree with analysis you gave, but cannot underestimate any adversary with the wealth, growing technical and manufacturing expertise, and the enormous number of potential fighters the Chinese have.
I believe the same will occur with air assets...hoping to draw our strike packages in after the carrier where they can use their new area air defense ddg's and huge numbers of land based aircraft to try and waylay our own aircraft.
Either way...having a rich target like that to go in after in any conflict over Taiwan will complicate things and make them mopre dangerous. We are more than up to it...it will just increase the cost of our total victory. The PRC is, of course, hoping that a new administration will weigh that cost and choose not to intervene and thereby achieve a political victory where they could not achieve a military one.
GREAT info! Thank you. :)
Jeff,
Using an aircraft carrier in confined littoral waters is useless. You might as well use land based aircraft. An aircraft carrier is an open ocean power projection weapon which has utility in the littoral battlespace as an attacking platform. There are many ways to kill a carrier you can use Tomahawk, Harpoon, Harpoon SLAM, SRAM and evem ALCM's among other things. All of these can be lauched from a number of different platforms. Equippped with the right warhead you can even take out a task force.
I bet we could put more missiles in the air than their AD DDG's can handle (attack from many platforms [air,surface,undersea] with different weapons,no defense shield is impervious)and many of the missiles we would shoot would be targeting the escorts first. Once you take them out it gets interesting.
Excellent analysis Squantos...I believe you are spot on, in the timing too if the PLAN chooses to go that way, and it sure looks like they are going that way.
Hillary is already bought and paid for.
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