Latest pictures out of China of PLANs work on the Carrier Varyag

CHINA.COM Military Pics ^ | 10 Octoner 2005 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

The PLAN is readying the former Russian carrier Varyag for something. These pictures show the exterior painting now being completed in the standard PLAN surface combatant colors, with the superstructure preparing to be painted.

They have been working on the project in their naval shipyards for over two year now.

[JamesP81]

Enormous air force implies enormous consumption of fuel. Enormous consumption of fuel implies enormous tanker traffic to Chinese ports. Enormous tanker traffic implies dominance at sea.

Not a chance.

Exactly my point. We would likely use fast attack submarines in their traditional role to blockade their ports. Until recently, China was continental power; they had everything they needed at home. Now their industries are more dependent on trade than they are on home developed resources. We could blockade their ports and have them on their knees in a hurry. All the planes and ships in the world are useless if they have no fuel. Just ask Imperial Japan; they'll tell you.

[Jeff Head]

The defending of the carrier would fall principally to the super-Hornets since the F-22 is not navalized. The F-18 will do the job very nicely though.

It will also fall to the escorts who will most likely have to fight off swarms of ASMs and Chinese subs...their newer Song and Yuan classes are capable diesle/electrics, as well as the 12 new Russian Kilos they have and are purchasing. I believe our escorts would be up to the task, particularly when we go in there with at least two carrier battle groups, maybe 3 or 4.

[Jeff Head]

They are clearly preparing...and we dare not underestimate them. Nonetheless, we have the resources and technology, well in advance of theirs, to handle it if we take and prosecute them seriously. I have no doubts we will, but feel we need to remain ever vigilant just the same.

They know the same things we do and are clearly going to be planning and preparing to try and overcome our advantages.

[sam_paine]

Like I said in the past, Our Wal-Mart money at work.

Question for you. When China buys US Treasury notes, they get a slip of paper from the US Govt, and the Chinese cash goes where?

[Petey139]

My regrets, I have disremembered to add [SARC] And for your inquiry, The money goes back to our coffers to pay for our debts.

[Brofholdonow]

Looks like the "Love Boat" from hell. That ski jump in the front looks inviting. Maybe our fly boys could slide a few iron 2,000 pounders down the slide taking a tour of the deck while dusting all those strange-looking Chinese naval aircraft off the deck.

[sam_paine]

"Here's the list of submarines destroyed by the the Chinese Navy in their entire history:"

Thanks for adding some perspective to the knee-jerking.

From what I've read on other threads, the Chinese are moments away from being invincible because of Sunburn missiles, and their first attempt to operate a carrier (or perhaps a floating rusting casino, not sure) etc.

And simulataneously the mightiest fleet in the world is in imminent danger of being annhilated, even though they have operated dozens of carrier battle groups for decades.

Experience in dominance on the high seas, it seems to some, is less relevant to the equation of naval strategy than rednecks buying lawn chairs at WalMart.

[ChinaThreat]

What will be interesting is when they sail this thing off the coast of California about 100 miles out.

[HHKrepublican_2]

If they touch Taiwan, we'll rip apart that carrier, we should take that opportunity to take out their entire navy...we'll take out a threat that could present itself for atleast my Generation.

[VRWCTexan]

Agreed - the US Navy remains up to the task. However IMO there is a much larger question.

Assuming China makes a move on Taiwan after GWB is out of office would a future US president risk a bloody show-down where the US could (on the one hand) "win" - but at a very high price in terms of dead US sailors, airmen, ships and aircraft...?

Would a President Hillary etc just order the US Navy to "stand-down" without firing a shop...?

[HHKrepublican_2]

How do we have these pictures if we dont know where it is...and dont you think the US Gov't knows its location...hell, you could find that thing with google earth

[VRWCTexan]

shop = shot

[Jeff Head]

Here's a pic of her last year I believe in another dock facility.

[sam_paine]

They will not venture out into blue water conflict with us for quite some time.

Agreed. So game out for me what happens after these "initial hostilities" that you seem to foresee the Chinese having some success at under cover of their local air cover.

How, for example, do you see them responding to a full-on blockade of their shipping by the USN, Royal Navy and Japanese DF? What does such a blockade do to the Chinese economy vs. the Rest of World?

Given world petrol distribution, and assuming best case partnering of India+Russia+China vs. the West, exactly how long does that last?

In other words, how can they attempt "close in" hostilities before the "quite some time" in the future when they can support a blue-water confrontation?

[ClearCase_guy]

Would a President Hillary etc just order the US Navy to "stand-down" without firing a shop...?

President Geena Davis, I believe, ordered the US military into action because a woman in Africa was going to be stoned.

Whether Hillary would follow her lead depends on the polling.

[HHKrepublican_2]

Yes, our next presidential choice may be based on coming wars, and not so much on social issues. I can see Giuliani standing up to the Chinese, Condi Rice would too (shes good on social issues too this is easier..
Rudy-yes
Condi-yes
Hillary-No
Kerry-if hell froze over
McCain-Yes (wouldnt want to sacrifice domestically for that)
...I know i missed a few candidates...

[JamesP81]

Interesting. I had heard talk of a naval version of the Raptor. Perhaps I was mistaken?

I have little doubt that the Ticos and Arleigh Burkes can handle whatever subs and anti ship missiles the Chinese can throw at them.

[Riley]

How do we have these pictures if we dont know where it is...and dont you think the US Gov't knows its location...hell, you could find that thing with google earth

Through the Varyagworld link above, I found a Google Earth placemark for the Varyag. The resolution for the area is awful- you can just barely make out the profile of the flight deck even when you know where to look for it.

[DarthVader]

Nice target for a spread of Mk 48 torpedoes. It will get blasted out of the water faster than you can imagine.

[pabianice]

The oars sticking out the sides make me doubt the ship's combat capabilities...