BINGO! I think you're right on target. This would give China a carrier task force as the centerpiece of an invasion of Taiwan, used to screen their amphibious transports. Though it would be a full generation behind the Nimitz and Improved Nimitz (Roosevelt) class carrier task forces defended by Ticonderoga CGs and Arleigh Burke DDGs, screened by one or two Seawolf or Improved LA SSNs, it would still be a major threat. Though I wouldn't give a "Varyag" or whatever the red Chinese call it and it's escorts a snowballs chance in hell of withstanding a concerted primary attack with TASMs (Tomahawks) launched from a Nimitz Carrier task force, with a syncronized or secondary launching of Harpoons from a full squadron of F/A-18 Hornets or Super Hornet D's. And I don't believe the "Varyag" force could successfully take on one of our Nimitz groups. Between the air to air interceptor capability of our F-14s and F-18s, the Sea Sparrow and more advanced SAMs that the CG and DDG screens have, and the SAMs the carriers themselves have, and the CIWS 20mm radar guided gun armament every U.S. warship has, and chaff and flare decoys after those, I don't think any Chinese cruise missiles could get through all that unless is was a massive strike of over 150 or more missiles at the same time, and that would be very difficult for them to pull off. And to do that, they'd have to get their planes close enough, and oue AEWACs would spot and direct fighters to shoot them down LONG before they'd be in range to launch. The Chinese naval and submarine force doesn't have the capability to launch a syncronized attack of that magnitude. That's my take on it anyway. This ship would be a threat in a Taiwan invasion though, nothing to be taken likely, but not an equal to a Nimitz by any stretch.
But the Chinese carrier would definitely complicate things if they got it operational.
I agree with analysis you gave, but cannot underestimate any adversary with the wealth, growing technical and manufacturing expertise, and the enormous number of potential fighters the Chinese have.
"Between the air to air interceptor capability of our F-14s and F-18s"
F-14 was just retired a few weeks ago.