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Part VI: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1490045/posts |
Posted on 09/22/2005 5:44:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse
I'll take over the winter storm threads. Last time I made one, I got lots of flak from people who don't care about snow. :<
I think it ended up busting as well!
"My cousin lives just north of 290-Jones Rd. intersection in NW Houston. Would you happen to know if that area is flood prone?"
Not from hurricane storm surge. Now if Rita stalled with the over Hockley, and stayed for three-four days dumping 20" of rain each day, yeah, that area would flood. But if you want to bet *that* would happen I have some lottery tickets to sell you.
The danger area is for anyone south of the 610 loop and US-59 south. NASA area and south, Ship Channel, and those around Galveston Bay should be doin' the bugout boogie. Virtually EVERYONE north of I-10 are better off staying home, and forting up. Outherwise you are taking up space on the road that people that really need to get out need right now.
Thanks for the Cosgrove update.
Remember the morning before Katrina hit- the NWS issued that incredible statement "Devastating damage expected.." and some of us thought it was a hoax for a little while- because it was SO dramatic ???
They released it around 10 AM on Sunday...I'm wondering if something similar will come out tomorrow morning.
No, I'm not in Beaumont - I'm in Pennsylvania.
The tracking map I saw put it right over my folks' house sometime Sunday.
I know they need rain in E. Texas but I don't think they wanted it all at once!
One thing I haven't researched yet--what are the differences between the NW Gulf Coast and the NE Gulf Coast. We know the NE Gulf Coast is relatively shallow, and a reasonable storm crippler.
KPLC-TV/DT (Lake Charles/Lafayette) - mms://a560.l1058140497.c10581.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/560/10581/v0001/reflector:40497
KATC-TV/DT (Lafayette/Lake Charles) - mms://a1840.l974641016.c9746.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1840/9746/v0001/reflector:41016 (this one seems to be backed up on my test)
I thought I had earlier that people were returning to CC and that they were reving the refineries back up. Guess it's true.
Imagine, running from a hurricane and ending up on the beach!
Keep me posted on the Beaumont info. Have some friends who have evacuated to Houston from Beaumont and are staying with us. They are a little worried about possible lootings, etc.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=53733#
LarryCosgrove
post Today, 08:31 PM
Post #8
Professional Meteorologist
Group: Meteorologist
Posts: 215
Joined: August 10, 04
Member No.: 427
Some pointers I would like to mention about Rita:
1) Dry air intrusion is not an issue with this storm. Had the hurricane taken a southward track toward the Rio Grande Valley, it might have drawn in a downsloped Mexican cTw regime that would have weakened it. But the cyclone is enclosed in its own envelope of mT values, and entrainment of lower dewpoints is not likely until the center gets into TX on Saturday.
2) The satellite thunderstorm presentation is strengthening, but eyewall reformation is still going on. This deep monster should drop below 910MB and could get into 900MB territory before landfall.
3) I watch with concern how some exaggerate wobbles and NWP depictions. Viewed by rotation around the subtropical high moving into the Carolinas, the landfall option (IMO) is now down to a Freeport to Port Arthur corridor. A case can be made for a left shore of Galveston Bay, but such a call would not be wise until we see ERC finished and the pace of reformation of the heat ridge in NM (which ultimately will slow or stall Rita).
4) Calls for weakening, at least those marking degradation of the hurricane, are invalid if one considers the lack of a shearing mechanism and the very warm SSTs in the path of Rita. I am afraid that some do not want another dangerous, high impact storm affecting a highly populated area. Be it the Golden Triangle (Beaumont-Port Arthur-Lake Charles) or the Houston/Galveston metro, Rita is going to put somebody in a world of pain early Saturday morning. And I think she will be slowed by the ridge expansion to her west, implying more misery through flooding and tornadoes for E TX, SE OK, SW AR, and far W LA.
Just my two dollars...
Best Regards
Larry Cosgrove
Can someone explain to me how you build a building to withstand a Cat 5 to hold deadly virus' if another worry is flooding. Maybe the building survives but what about the flooding.
That pool contractor guy in the condo right on the beach is an idiot. Said you would have to have an explosion to destroy the building and he was staying.
Flyer are you getting rain yet in Texas? I had just scanned the last two pages(about 500 posts) of the last thread. I recall my time in Houston, it did not take much rain to begin the flooding.
Hi there AFP!
thanks, Rummy Chick. I'll check it out.
Given the traffic congestion, the buses can only make a one-way trip north from Beaumont. These folks need to start thinking for themselves instead of expecting the government to magically create buses. Start walking north and stick out your thumb, if nothing else.
What surprises me is they're not even further behind.
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