Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Rita continues to threaten the Greater Houston Metropolitan area. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the northeast, increasing the risk to Southwest Louisiana, and a significant portion of the oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Perry is urging all coastal residents between Beaumont and Corpus Christi to evacuate as soon as possible.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[RDTF]

If you missed this link I posted earlier, here it is again. This should tell you plenty.

http://images.spaceref.com/news/2005/JSC.Hurr.Sim.pitch.ppt

[Knitting A Conundrum]

If I lived in Cameron or Vermillion Parishes, I think I'd start thinking about going to Shreveport...

[Diddle E. Squat]

Thanks for posting that storm surge graphic, it is especially useful for Beaumont and western LA. Unfortunately it is somewhat incomplete in the Houston area. Here are links to more detailed storm surge risk maps for each county in the Houston area.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/tropical/evac_map/gifs/

I'm afraid from some posts last night that there still are freepers living deep within the storm surge areas who either don't realize that or understand the actual dangers.

Nautinurse, will you please add the above links and one to the map in post #934 to the storm surge maps at the start of the next thread? Very important info. Houston's Office of Emergency Mgmt estimates that there are more than 100,000 homes in these storm surge areas that would be destroyed (not just damaged) by a Cat. 5 hit somewhere between Freeport and 20 miles east of Galveston.

[Proud 2BeTexan]

I heard that it was people from hospitals and nursing homes.

[Romish_Papist]

Better how? Better as in building back up or weakening?

[jeffers]

Download a program called Global Mapper and you can do just that. Problem is, to get high res imagery you have to download one elevation model for each USGS quad, which only cover 7.5 miles by 7.5 miles. Then you have to get the roadmaps to overlay them too.

I have medium res elevation models for the whole earth on a server here and can do quick and dirty surge projections, but the fastest method of all is to use a mapping program like Topo USA from DeLorme and just plot the forecast track, then move the cursor around to the right of landfall while watching the elevation figures for the cursor's current position.

[abb]

I called 'em for all the good it did. Hell with 'em...i'm calling the fcc.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

---I'm betting on the mouth of the Sabine, myself...

I don't know Sabine. Is she cute?--

Classic Laz!

[conservative in nyc]

There are 3,853 people in the Bolivar Peninsula CDP, which would include High Island and the rest of the 27-mile long peninsula down Texas 87 to Port Bolivar.

I can't get any more specific census data because the site's down.

Google Earth shows the elevation as 3 feet, by the way. We sometimes have to take Google Earth readings with a grain of salt. Literally.

[meyer]

I don't know Sabine. Is she cute?

Pretty mouth....

Sorry....

[rwfromkansas]

looking stronger, not weaker

Just an hour ago it looked like she was struggling through an ERC.

[ladyjane]

My thoughts exactly. Sick feeling. Two days. A little dizzy too? hmmm...

www.morningsickness.net

[TChris]

I turned the key back to OFF or whatever it says, all the instrumentation went dead (including the tach), and after a few seconds I turned the key back to ON. The tachometer instantly jumped back to my previous RPM, and the transition was very smooth which tells me the engine was still spinning, but without spark or fuel. I didn't try turning the wheel or braking, but I agree that it probably would have been difficult, or the braking anyway.

Like you, I'm not trying to start an argument. I suppose that current transmissions in some cars might keep the engine spinning with the lock-up clutch. I hadn't really given it a lot of thought, but it makes more sense now that I think about it. :-)

[expatguy]

I used to live in Spring as well - many years ago.

I still have family there - is it zeroed on on Houston now? I guess I need to be calling family back home tonite.

Our prayers are with you.

An American Expat in Southeast Asia

[truthandlife]

I actually do think most Houston/Galveston residents realize the storm surge in these areas. Unless they have never turned on the radio or TV, they have seen this graphic. These areas are on the mandatory evacuation areas. Houston is prepared. I just don't think they were prepared for the amount of traffic that would be coming out of Houston.

[RDTF]

this graphic shows how it is weakening just to her north and the extremely dry surge to the west and NW (hence easterly move):

[DallasMike]

Here's the latest computer models for Rita. Notice the eastward shift since yesterday. Click on the picture for a full-sized image.

 

 

 

 

 

[LikeLight]

And yet again, storm seems to be already working its way east/north of the revised NHC track. They've had to readjust the track east/north virtually every update during the last 18 hours. And this storm continues to want to go north, toward Louisiana, not Texas.

[Types_with_Fist]

If I lived in Cameron or Vermillion Parishes, I think I'd start thinking about going to Shreveport...

Amen. Something isn't right here. I'm not an expert so I'm hesitant to critisize anyone who knows about forecasting. But, dangit, the cone, the graphs, whatever, keep getting moved to the east and the storm is moving along north enough for southwestern Louisiana not to get whacked with the northeast portion of the storm. I still keep hearing "Texas" but I'd get out (were I them) anywhere from Houma to the west. The models move one more time and time will be short to get people out.

[md2576]

This is an eerie news story posted Sept. 4th 2005

What if it happened here?

The following is not a snip just my opinion:

Now that the storm has slowed down Baton Rouge, Beaumont and Port Arthur will be the most devastated by this storm. I hope All those places have taken the evacuation seriously and will leave. They will not survive a 15' - 30' surge. If they stay, they will probably die or need our rescuers to risk their own lives to save them because they did not evacuate. Mandatory should be mandatory. Police do not let people commit suicide if they can help it. I believe anyone who does not leave should not expect to be rescued like the people in New Orleans. We do not owe them anything. Many during the rising waters of NO were looting and doing everything else except trying to get to safety. They are lucky they got help when they did.

Get Out means Get Out!

If the news had spent more time covering the devastation in Mississippi and how miles and miles of homes and towns are wiped off the face of the earth then these people who think they can stay and hunker down in their home would think twice. There will be no home or town left, why won't they leave? Delusional?

I also think its funny how the media always picks the west side of the storm to do live feeds. I would like to see one live from Baton Rouge or Lafayette on the strongest east side of the storm. Go where it gets good if you want the ratings. Heck go back to NO. They had it easy with Katrina. The levees are what caused the damage there. Now they will get it good and probably for the better since most of those buildings and homes need to be demolished now anyways.