Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

901 posted on 09/22/2005 8:57:38 AM PDT by AliVeritas (Ignorance is a condition. Stupidity is a strategy.)

Look how much the track has bent north. My prediction, made yesterday, was that NOLA was on the bullseye again. I stand by my prediction. This storm will bend it's track north again until NOLA is the target.

I'm with you, Laz. It is going to head more north than expected. Isn't a new track due out pretty soon?

A_R

902 posted on 09/22/2005 8:57:42 AM PDT by arkady_renko

the 5AM NHC discussion noted it beginning, so it likely won't complete till 6PM-midnight today.

903 posted on 09/22/2005 8:57:57 AM PDT by Strategerist

To: arkady_renko

New track came out an hour ago...next one in 2 hrs.

904 posted on 09/22/2005 8:58:54 AM PDT by ContemptofCourt

905 posted on 09/22/2005 8:58:54 AM PDT by JFC (West Texas flatlander)

To: sweet_diane; CedarDave

A glimpse of the website link at end of clip, thought it said "women against war".

906 posted on 09/22/2005 8:59:01 AM PDT by bwteim (Begin With The End In Mind)

It's being reported on the news.

907 posted on 09/22/2005 8:59:03 AM PDT by RummyChick

CNN,
Gov Blanco on now, doing all she can to prepare folks for Rita...

.....write your social security number on your wrist if you decide to stay so we will know who you are when we pick you up.....

908 posted on 09/22/2005 8:59:07 AM PDT by LA Woman3 (On election day, they were driven to the polls...On evacuation day, they had to fend for themselves)

Lazamataz, I respectfully SURE hope you're wrong!!!

909 posted on 09/22/2005 8:59:37 AM PDT by trillabodilla (just north of Baton Rouge, Louisiana)

nbc. googling for phone number now

910 posted on 09/22/2005 8:59:45 AM PDT by abb (Because News Reporting is too important to be left to the Journalists.)

To: ContemptofCourt

Thanks. I'll go over to check it out.

911 posted on 09/22/2005 8:59:52 AM PDT by arkady_renko

I did it in a 94 Nissan Altima with an automatic while on the highway. Your mileage may vary.

I turned the key back to OFF or whatever it says, all the instrumentation went dead (including the tach), and after a few seconds I turned the key back to ON. The tachometer instantly jumped back to my previous RPM, and the transition was very smooth which tells me the engine was still spinning, but without spark or fuel. I didn't try turning the wheel or braking, but I agree that it probably would have been difficult, or the braking anyway.

I don't want to get in an argument over it, though. I was just relating a stupid thing I did when I was younger. As I say, your mileage may vary.

912 posted on 09/22/2005 9:00:15 AM PDT by Rob_DSM

Oops, sorry. It's a monster, though!

Godzilla is a monster; this thing is a moving doomsday scenario.

913 posted on 09/22/2005 9:00:18 AM PDT by ARCADIA (Abuse of power comes as no surprise)

I must steal your tagline.

914 posted on 09/22/2005 9:00:19 AM PDT by AliVeritas (Ignorance is a condition. Stupidity is a strategy.)

I'm betting on the mouth of the Sabine, myself...

915 posted on 09/22/2005 9:00:46 AM PDT by Knitting A Conundrum (Act Justly, Love Mercy, and Walk Humbly With God Micah 6:8)

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/2005/rita.html

11:30 Am September 22

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com

Satellite intensity estimates show Rita on a weakening trend as it has moved out of the warm water current in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. RECON has reported lower flight level winds, and the pressure has risen to 907mb. Based on this and surface estimates, I set initial intensity at 140kts, still a Category Five hurricane. Rita should weaken to Category Four status over the next few hours, but will remain a very powerful and dangerous hurricane nonetheless. As stated, Rita is moving over waters with lower energy content. Sea surface temperatures ahead of Rita are about 28C; however, they rise again toward the coast. Additionally, inner dynamics seem to also be weakening the storm a bit, and concentric eyewalls are probably currently in the process of developing. For this reason, short-term weakening is expected. After 24 hours as Rita nears the coast, it will very likely interact with dry air over land and further weakening would occur as at least one quadrant of the storm deteriorates. Some slightly increased shear may occur as Rita interacts with ridging to the north as it approaches land. I will maintain a Category Four hurricane through landfall, bring Rita ashore at about 115 to 120kts. This agrees with SHIPS which weakens the storm rather steadily after 36 hours. It is possible that Rita could weaken to Category Three status prior to making landfall; however, the hurricane would nonetheless be very powerful and still capable of widespread damage.

The track forecast is problematic somewhat. Three days ago, forecasts had Rita heading toward the upper Texas coast, and since they have zoned in between Freeport and the Louisiana/Texas border. Rita has moved west-northwestward overnight as ridging has weakened more than forecasted, probably due in part to the overwhelming intensity of the hurricane itself. As such, the track forecast is pushed to the right, and model guidance has slid to the right accordingly. The forecast moreorless maintains the current forward direction and forward speed; however, as Rita approaches the coast, it will move on the western side of the ridge, and a more northerly path is possible. Therefore, the forecast once again brings Rita inland very near the Texas/Louisiana border, and it is almost certain now that the hurricane will landfall east of the Galveston/Houston area; however, hurricane force winds could occur up to roughly 100 miles from the center. The worst storm surge and winds will occur to the east of the center, and if any portion of the storm were to weaken due to dry air, it would be the west side. Model guidance is very clustered together through 72 hours, with the exception of NOGAPS to the right. Thus, all residents along the upper Texas coast and Louisiana coast should prepare for hurricane force conditions and heed evacuation orders. After 72 hours, the track becomes even more difficult. Steering currents are expected to weaken for a few days over the central US in the wake of the over the southern US weakening and drifting eastward. About half of the guidance shows some sort of turn to the south after 72 hours; however, whether Rita will turn east or west remains uncertain. Likely, the storm will not move much at all toward the end of the forecast period, and particularly if the storm remains close enough to the coast, heavy flooding rains could occur well inland.

INIT 25.4N 88.7W 140KTS
12HR 26.4N 90.3W 135KTS
24HR 27.5N 91.8W 130KTS
36HR 28.6N 93.1W 125KTS
48HR 30.0N 94.2W 110KTS...INLAND SHORTLY POST-LANDFALL
72HR 32.5N 95.0W 45KTS...INLAND
96HR 33.9N 94.0W 25KTS...INLAND
120HR 33.4N 93.4W 20KTS...INLAND

Powell

916 posted on 09/22/2005 9:00:52 AM PDT by RDTF

To: trillabodilla

Lazamataz, I respectfully SURE hope you're wrong!!!

I do too.

But you know I'm right.

917 posted on 09/22/2005 9:00:54 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Islam is merely Nazism without the snappy fashion sense.)

New NOGAPS shifted a hair W from TX/LA border to just N of Galveston Bay, new GFS shifted a bit east to Port Arthur TX.

I think the really big model jumps for this storm are likely finished. I could be wrong, of course.

918 posted on 09/22/2005 9:01:08 AM PDT by Strategerist

Wow. It's looking more and more by the NHC reports & computer models that Lake Charles (LA)area will be ground zero for Rita.

919 posted on 09/22/2005 9:02:07 AM PDT by Orlando

To: Knitting A Conundrum

I'm betting on the mouth of the Sabine, myself...

I don't know Sabine. Is she cute?

920 posted on 09/22/2005 9:02:26 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Islam is merely Nazism without the snappy fashion sense.)

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