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http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/2005/rita.html

11:30 Am September 22

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com

Satellite intensity estimates show Rita on a weakening trend as it has moved out of the warm water current in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. RECON has reported lower flight level winds, and the pressure has risen to 907mb. Based on this and surface estimates, I set initial intensity at 140kts, still a Category Five hurricane. Rita should weaken to Category Four status over the next few hours, but will remain a very powerful and dangerous hurricane nonetheless. As stated, Rita is moving over waters with lower energy content. Sea surface temperatures ahead of Rita are about 28C; however, they rise again toward the coast. Additionally, inner dynamics seem to also be weakening the storm a bit, and concentric eyewalls are probably currently in the process of developing. For this reason, short-term weakening is expected. After 24 hours as Rita nears the coast, it will very likely interact with dry air over land and further weakening would occur as at least one quadrant of the storm deteriorates. Some slightly increased shear may occur as Rita interacts with ridging to the north as it approaches land. I will maintain a Category Four hurricane through landfall, bring Rita ashore at about 115 to 120kts. This agrees with SHIPS which weakens the storm rather steadily after 36 hours. It is possible that Rita could weaken to Category Three status prior to making landfall; however, the hurricane would nonetheless be very powerful and still capable of widespread damage.

The track forecast is problematic somewhat. Three days ago, forecasts had Rita heading toward the upper Texas coast, and since they have zoned in between Freeport and the Louisiana/Texas border. Rita has moved west-northwestward overnight as ridging has weakened more than forecasted, probably due in part to the overwhelming intensity of the hurricane itself. As such, the track forecast is pushed to the right, and model guidance has slid to the right accordingly. The forecast moreorless maintains the current forward direction and forward speed; however, as Rita approaches the coast, it will move on the western side of the ridge, and a more northerly path is possible. Therefore, the forecast once again brings Rita inland very near the Texas/Louisiana border, and it is almost certain now that the hurricane will landfall east of the Galveston/Houston area; however, hurricane force winds could occur up to roughly 100 miles from the center. The worst storm surge and winds will occur to the east of the center, and if any portion of the storm were to weaken due to dry air, it would be the west side. Model guidance is very clustered together through 72 hours, with the exception of NOGAPS to the right. Thus, all residents along the upper Texas coast and Louisiana coast should prepare for hurricane force conditions and heed evacuation orders. After 72 hours, the track becomes even more difficult. Steering currents are expected to weaken for a few days over the central US in the wake of the over the southern US weakening and drifting eastward. About half of the guidance shows some sort of turn to the south after 72 hours; however, whether Rita will turn east or west remains uncertain. Likely, the storm will not move much at all toward the end of the forecast period, and particularly if the storm remains close enough to the coast, heavy flooding rains could occur well inland.

INIT 25.4N 88.7W 140KTS
12HR 26.4N 90.3W 135KTS
24HR 27.5N 91.8W 130KTS
36HR 28.6N 93.1W 125KTS
48HR 30.0N 94.2W 110KTS...INLAND SHORTLY POST-LANDFALL
72HR 32.5N 95.0W 45KTS...INLAND
96HR 33.9N 94.0W 25KTS...INLAND
120HR 33.4N 93.4W 20KTS...INLAND

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