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Posted on 09/22/2005 3:25:57 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Rita continues to threaten the Greater Houston Metropolitan area. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the northeast, increasing the risk to Southwest Louisiana, and a significant portion of the oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Perry is urging all coastal residents between Beaumont and Corpus Christi to evacuate as soon as possible.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA
Additional Resources:
FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
LOL
I'm with you, Laz. It is going to head more north than expected. Isn't a new track due out pretty soon?
A_R
the 5AM NHC discussion noted it beginning, so it likely won't complete till 6PM-midnight today.
New track came out an hour ago...next one in 2 hrs.
FNC...
A glimpse of the website link at end of clip, thought it said "women against war".
It's being reported on the news.
Lazamataz, I respectfully SURE hope you're wrong!!!
nbc. googling for phone number now
Thanks. I'll go over to check it out.
I did it in a 94 Nissan Altima with an automatic while on the highway. Your mileage may vary.
I turned the key back to OFF or whatever it says, all the instrumentation went dead (including the tach), and after a few seconds I turned the key back to ON. The tachometer instantly jumped back to my previous RPM, and the transition was very smooth which tells me the engine was still spinning, but without spark or fuel. I didn't try turning the wheel or braking, but I agree that it probably would have been difficult, or the braking anyway.
I don't want to get in an argument over it, though. I was just relating a stupid thing I did when I was younger. As I say, your mileage may vary.
I must steal your tagline.
I'm betting on the mouth of the Sabine, myself...
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/2005/rita.html
11:30 Am September 22
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com
Satellite intensity estimates show Rita on a weakening trend as it has moved out of the warm water current in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. RECON has reported lower flight level winds, and the pressure has risen to 907mb. Based on this and surface estimates, I set initial intensity at 140kts, still a Category Five hurricane. Rita should weaken to Category Four status over the next few hours, but will remain a very powerful and dangerous hurricane nonetheless. As stated, Rita is moving over waters with lower energy content. Sea surface temperatures ahead of Rita are about 28C; however, they rise again toward the coast. Additionally, inner dynamics seem to also be weakening the storm a bit, and concentric eyewalls are probably currently in the process of developing. For this reason, short-term weakening is expected. After 24 hours as Rita nears the coast, it will very likely interact with dry air over land and further weakening would occur as at least one quadrant of the storm deteriorates. Some slightly increased shear may occur as Rita interacts with ridging to the north as it approaches land. I will maintain a Category Four hurricane through landfall, bring Rita ashore at about 115 to 120kts. This agrees with SHIPS which weakens the storm rather steadily after 36 hours. It is possible that Rita could weaken to Category Three status prior to making landfall; however, the hurricane would nonetheless be very powerful and still capable of widespread damage.
The track forecast is problematic somewhat. Three days ago, forecasts had Rita heading toward the upper Texas coast, and since they have zoned in between Freeport and the Louisiana/Texas border. Rita has moved west-northwestward overnight as ridging has weakened more than forecasted, probably due in part to the overwhelming intensity of the hurricane itself. As such, the track forecast is pushed to the right, and model guidance has slid to the right accordingly. The forecast moreorless maintains the current forward direction and forward speed; however, as Rita approaches the coast, it will move on the western side of the ridge, and a more northerly path is possible. Therefore, the forecast once again brings Rita inland very near the Texas/Louisiana border, and it is almost certain now that the hurricane will landfall east of the Galveston/Houston area; however, hurricane force winds could occur up to roughly 100 miles from the center. The worst storm surge and winds will occur to the east of the center, and if any portion of the storm were to weaken due to dry air, it would be the west side. Model guidance is very clustered together through 72 hours, with the exception of NOGAPS to the right. Thus, all residents along the upper Texas coast and Louisiana coast should prepare for hurricane force conditions and heed evacuation orders. After 72 hours, the track becomes even more difficult. Steering currents are expected to weaken for a few days over the central US in the wake of the over the southern US weakening and drifting eastward. About half of the guidance shows some sort of turn to the south after 72 hours; however, whether Rita will turn east or west remains uncertain. Likely, the storm will not move much at all toward the end of the forecast period, and particularly if the storm remains close enough to the coast, heavy flooding rains could occur well inland.
INIT 25.4N 88.7W 140KTS
12HR 26.4N 90.3W 135KTS
24HR 27.5N 91.8W 130KTS
36HR 28.6N 93.1W 125KTS
48HR 30.0N 94.2W 110KTS...INLAND SHORTLY POST-LANDFALL
72HR 32.5N 95.0W 45KTS...INLAND
96HR 33.9N 94.0W 25KTS...INLAND
120HR 33.4N 93.4W 20KTS...INLAND
Powell
I do too.
But you know I'm right.
New NOGAPS shifted a hair W from TX/LA border to just N of Galveston Bay, new GFS shifted a bit east to Port Arthur TX.
I think the really big model jumps for this storm are likely finished. I could be wrong, of course.
I don't know Sabine. Is she cute?
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