Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Rita continues to threaten the Greater Houston Metropolitan area. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the northeast, increasing the risk to Southwest Louisiana, and a significant portion of the oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Perry is urging all coastal residents between Beaumont and Corpus Christi to evacuate as soon as possible.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[PhilipFreneau]

>>> On some other boards I've been browsing they are predicting this is a Lake Charles, LA storm. <<<

The following is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

"RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. "

from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/221455.shtml?

[LuLuLuLu]

I know that Rita is turning East, but it's been driving me crazy all morning that the local news has been talking ONLY about NO.

I find so many of these posts bittersweet. As the storm turns, it's "Yeah! My house and life might be spared!" And then the "Oh Sh!t" realization that it's going to hit someone else.

My very, very best to all on the coast.

[conservative in nyc]

High Island is where the star is on this map:

[Howlin]

People here in NC are buying gas cans like they are going out of style in anticipation of a gas crunch.

[johnb838]

It may be better to evacuate after the storm due to the traffic. It is truly brutal out there and if you don't have the gas, there's no point.

[RDTF]

URNT12 KNHC 221500Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1449Z
B. 25 DEG 18 MIN N
88 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2326 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 121 DEG 135 KT
G. 35 DEG 13 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 18 C/ 3058 M
J. 22 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C017-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z

[Prolifeconservative]

For all the grief the BAMM model has gotten from these threads, it has been the most consistent on Rita and does deserve some credibility afterall.

[hummingbird]

Oh, man...I want to set up a doggie cam! When Rita is over, can I check back with you on how to do this?

[tcrlaf]

*** Crap, now Governor Blank-oh is going to be in charge over the worst part of the storm. More crying on the way. ***

At least THIS time she knows what a BUS is...

[Moose4]

Wow, she's really weakened. Flight level winds down ~30 knots from peak, pressure up to 913 mb, and the eyewall's opened up. Eyewall replacement cycle, or is something starting to weaken her down finally?

}:-)4

[Howlin]

You can see that they rarely come into Texas.

Have you noticed that this isn't a "rarely" year?

[Petronski]

Yesterday:

Today:

Hmmmm. Remarkable.

[abb]

Let's hope the weakening sticks!!

[JFC]

They just said.. a low in Oklahoma waas shifting the Hurricane. I suppose it changes by the minute. The heat index is going to get HIGH today..... They need to get the Contralanes open ASAP.. over heating of stalled cars is not going to help anyone............ HUGE TRAFFIC JAMS.

Northwest jag... now, so headed back to Houston....per
http://www.950kprc.com/audio.html

[Howlin]

#801.

[jeffers]

It's still hooking right, another 15 to 20 miles since the 0800 updated forecast track. Right now linear interpolation puts landfall centered between Houston and Port Arthur, call it Stowell. The error between linear and Bezier (curved) interpolation isn't very great because the 1000 forecast track's +48 hour point is only 30 miles inland.

More concerned with speed now than hook though. If it stalls, landfall becomes anyone's guess. It obviously wants to go north, and may have enough heft to be pushing the HP ridge, or just squeezing it. 1/2mv^2 versus 1/2mv^2 (plus one or two other factors).

Like Katrina on Saturday before landfall, we've crossed a rubicon....somebody's going to get smacked. Just too much energy there to go away.

[AntiGuv]

People here in NC are buying gas cans like they are going out of style in anticipation of a gas crunch.

Not a bad move. 90% of NC gas comes by pipeline from Galveston (up the Colonial & Plantation lines). The aftermath of Rita could be worse than Katrina in terms of NC fuel prices & supply. Katrina merely knocked out the power to the lines through Louisiana & Mississippi.

[Flyer]

Oh, man...I want to set up a doggie cam! When Rita is over, can I check back with you on how to do this?

I may have to start a doggie cam class.

Yeah, remind me when the power is back on.

[Strategerist]

Wow, she's really weakened. Flight level winds down ~30 knots from peak, pressure up to 913 mb, and the eyewall's opened up. Eyewall replacement cycle, or is something starting to weaken her down finally?

This is a classic, normal, eyewall replacement.

And you know that for sure from this line of the VORTEX:

M. C017-55

The "CO" means "concentric"...I.E. the bullseye of the old inner eyewall inside the new outer eyewall. 17-55 means the old eyewall is 17 nautical miles wide and the new eyewall is 55 nautical miles wide.

[RummyChick]

At this point, I would take a flight out for a mini vacation. Or take a train. Pack up the pictures, jewelry, documents, medicine and get out

The traffic is a nightmare and you run the chance of running out of gas. Someone from refinery said this is becoming a huge problem. Someone is giving out 1 gallon of gas to these people ( I suppose the police) but as this guy said, 1 gallon of gas isn't going to get you very far.