Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Rita continues to threaten the Greater Houston Metropolitan area. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the northeast, increasing the risk to Southwest Louisiana, and a significant portion of the oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Perry is urging all coastal residents between Beaumont and Corpus Christi to evacuate as soon as possible.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[abb]

high island is midway between galveston and port arthur

[r9etb]

That's yesterday's track....

[cgk]

placemark

[.cnI redruM]

>>>>The inner eyewall becomes unstable somehow.


It dissipates into smaller vortexes. Vortexes are how fluids dissipate access KE. They're analogous to frictional heating in solids. The vortex inside the eye wall blows off KE until it can no longer remain intact. At this point, it gets broken into a bunch of smaller vortexes, which in turn get smashed into smaller ones.

[Dallas59]

Looks like Rita is weakening

Is Rita weakening?

NOAA SAT Views

[AliVeritas]

Wow, thanks so much... you are a treasure trove of knowledge.

[omegatoo]

Dear truth,
I felt compelled to come out of lurkdom to offer a little advice.

Please don't make that final decision yet. This is a huge storm, and at this point you are still very much in danger. The traffic will be bad, but will improve once contraflow is started.

I was on the "good" side of Katrina, and also considered not evacuating because my daughter had already gone to Baton Rouge with my parents (I had to work). My home was not damaged, but was without power for at least 10 days.

If you think the heat on the road will cause problems, imagine 10 days without air conditioning, TV, Cable, Phone. You will be at the end of a long list of people without power, so it could even be longer. Do you have a firearm? Can you stand "Mom, I'm bored" for that long (that's the one that gets me every time).

Making a choice to stay for yourself is one thing, but do you really want to subject your children to that? You are responsible for their safety, and I hope you will remember those people plucked off of roofs in New Orleans who had small children with them. Didn't you think to yourself..."Why didn't they leave?" Be careful what your prayers tell you, because they are filtered through your human self who is overwhelmed by the thought of getting on that road.

Plan to leave, prepare to leave, and if you decide not to, then don't. Just don't back yourself into the corner of saying "now its too late and I'm not ready".

Praying for your safety whatever you decide.

(and back to lurkdom)

Omegatoo

[bwteim]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W_sm2+gif/145647W_sm.gif

This is current

[AntiGuv]

Thank you for the info! You've answered some questions I've been wondering about. It can be confusing at times to separate legit info from the myths. Speaking of which, I recently found out that it's a myth that toilet water spins opposite in the Southern Hemisphere due to the Coriolis effect. That was interesting, and tangentially related to hurricanes. =)

[bwteim]

[.cnI redruM]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

So the vortex forming a few hundred miles North of Brazil and a few hundred East of the Caymens hasn't gathered substantial strength yet?

[LikeLight]

That's yesterday's map - ask the Mod to pull it.

[NautiNurse]

At the top of the thread is a link for Rita Forecast Track Archives. It's a loop of all the previous tracks.

[RDTF]

On some other boards I've been browsing they are predicting this is a Lake Charles, LA storm.

[Strategerist]

There are actually guys in places like Kenya and whatnot on the equator that scam tourists by claiming to demonstrate the opposite spin of water draining on opposite sides of the equator.

Actually you CAN demonstrate Coriolis with water draining, but only under laboratory conditions, with a very wide pan of shallow water, after allowing days and days for the water to become completely still, IIRC.

[Dog Gone]

Is there a possibility that you could ride out the storm at your wife's hospital?

Yes, that is my current plan. Only if the storm track continues to shift east will I consider staying. I don't have to make that decision until probably noon tomorrow.

[conservative in nyc]

That's from 10AM yesterday, not today.

[bwteim]

CNN,
Gov Blanco on now, doing all she can to prepare folks for Rita...

[hummingbird]

Thanks, kimmie7.

[.cnI redruM]

If it's replacing an eye wall, it's dissipating in spirals. The next spiral, if it entrains energy from outside the system, could pump it right back up again. In other words, hold on to that sigh of relief.