Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Rita continues to threaten the Greater Houston Metropolitan area. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the northeast, increasing the risk to Southwest Louisiana, and a significant portion of the oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Perry is urging all coastal residents between Beaumont and Corpus Christi to evacuate as soon as possible.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[TChris]

If you're in an auto transmission, when you turn the ignition back one step while you're still moving in gear, it just turns off the engine. The engine is still turning, but no power is being made.

Sorry, but that's just not true. It does turn off the engine, but turning off the engine means it is not turning any more.

I don't recall how that effects the steering and brakes, but the steering would not lock up (maybe harder to turn though). I don't think the steering wheel will lock unless you are in Park.

Power steering and power brakes both depend on the engine. When the engine stops, you will have no power assist for either. Without power assist, steering is somewhat more difficult while moving, becoming more difficult as speed decreases. Braking is extremely difficult. You could stand with all your weight on the bake pedal with both feet and still not slow down very quickly.

When you're done fooling around, just turn the ignition back to ON, and it continues running like normal.

Any time my engine has stopped with an automatic trans, whether intentionally or not, I have had to re-start (as in, turn the ignition key all the way to "start" and release, just like starting it up in the morning) the vehicle, not just turn the ignition back to "run".

[Flyer]

Flyer I was looking for your doggie cam to ck in at times

There's Mason!

(or at least a piece of my floor)

[Tuxedo]

Any more Vortex reports forthcoming?

[Paradox]

FWIW, while channel surfing the guy from hurricanelive.com on CNN is saying that it looks like Rita may be heading for the TX/LA border

Historically speaking, storms like Rita have ended up tracking more east than the predictions. Some of the folks on Weatherunderground.com have predicted a TX/LA border landfall now for several days.

[OrangeDaisy]

A co-worker was saying how it is unbelievable to him why they didn't make texas roads all northbound earlier.

You can't make them all northbound so early in the game. People have to be able to get to their homes and board them up, gather their family, buy supplies, get to the airport, whatever. We are still 36 - 48 hours from landfall. That's about the ETA that Alabama starts the contraflow when they are in the projected path. Houston is changing them over today one at a time. I-45 has already been reversed. I know there are U.S. and state routes in Texas that would have been better to take. The freeways there are bumper to bumper at midnight on a good day! You could not have dragged me onto the freeway yesterday!

[SE Mom]

PLEASE- ALL OF YOU IN TX OR LA WHO ARE LEAVING GO TO THE SIGN-IN THREAD.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1488737/posts

[NC28203]

...Rita expected to weaken slightly but forecast to make landfall as a dangerous hurricane...

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 25.4 north...longitude 88.7 west or about 460 miles...740 km...southeast of Galveston Texas and about 445 miles...715 km... southeast of Port Arthur Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 165 mph...270
km/hr... with higher gusts. Rita is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours but Rita is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 907 mb...26.78 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.

[ContemptofCourt]

ERCs take about a day

[CedarDave]

Good grief! Why don't people take side roads? Good Question !! Perhaps too many nowdays always in such a hurry traveling interstates, they have never bothered *finding* the MANY backroads of Texas.

They need this:

The Roads of Texas

Excellent reference for those who might want to follow and track the storm.

[.cnI redruM]

If you check the Atlantic Satellite on Weather.com, it looks like Hurricane S___ is queuing up right behind Rita. This year has to be one of our worst ones.

[Eva]

Other oil companies have already shut down refineries along the TX coast and have evacuated personell, except for crisis management teams.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Given how bad the advice apparently is, that is a good thing.....

[Dog Gone]

Right now basically all the useful models have landfalls from Galveston to the LA/TX border.

If it hit halfway between Galveston and Beaumont, that would be the best of a bad situation. If it hits Galveston it definitely shoves the bay west into Houston and does untold damage to the petrochemical plants.

With the new forecast this morning, I'm no longer the bullseye and would only get the western side of the storm, so someone else's misery would be good news for me, in relative terms.

I'm not ready to celebrate yet, but last night it looked like my house would be destroyed. Today it looks survivable.

At a local level, I can't find a gas station with gas. The supermarket was empty this morning except for frozen food. They had a little bottled water left when I was there, but they were rationing it two to a customer, and unless more is on the way, it's long gone by now.

I went to the hardware store to see if I could get a tank of propane. The answer was no, of course, but people were grabbing gasoline jugs like crazy. I wanted to ask them where they expected to fill them, but I bit my tongue.

The town is in gridlock. People are running out of gas on the freeways. Many have been there for over 12 hours and have moved just a few miles. The operation to open both lanes of freeways leaving town is underway, but not operational yet.

That will help enormously, but it also means no more food, gasoline or other supplies will be coming to the residents who have decided to stay.

The decision to go or stay has passed for most people, and if you don't have supplies to last until help comes, whenever that might be, you're in trouble.

[Rutles4Ever]

Still extremely dangerous at 907 mb. Weakening at this point is like taking a head-on car accident at 60 mph instead of 70.

[NautiNurse]

My question was rhetorical, in response to another post.

[jeffers]

Dirty side of the storm, definitely, but if I was in NO and had to take one, landfall to the west is their only chance of surviving it now.

Gotta laugh when I see the reporters talking about how three inches of rain could breach the levees again. With the possible exception of downtown New Orleans, those levees won't be significantly breached for years, because large sections of them no longer exist.

Back to the grind...I'll try to check in this evening.

[Strategerist]

So, now I might ask, isn't it somewhat disconcerting that the storm is undergoing eyewall replacement yet is still a Category 5?

No, it's normal and what you'd expect; A Cat 5 is more likely to replace an eyewall than any other storm, really.

I went through this last night but there's an infinite amount of just flat out wrong stuff about eyewall replacements I see posted here and on weather boards, the source of which I've never been able to determine.

Here's the actual scoop:

1) An eyewall replacement means that a new eyewall develops surrounding the old eyewall (the storm thus looking like a bullseye); when this happens the old eye weakens. Once the old eye is gone, the new outer eyewall is then the storm's main eye, and that eyewall typically contracts in size till it's effectively replaced the original eye. A replacement DOESN'T mean the center of the storm relocates or anything like that.

2) The reason why replacements happen is, well, described in page after page after page of complex fluid dynamics equations in some papers I've found online, none of which I understand. The inner eyewall becomes unstable somehow.

3) Eyewall replacements typically take somewhere in the vicinity of 12 to 18 hours, from the time the new outer eyewall begins forming till the time that eyewall is the sole eyewall of the storm. For various strange reasons people have gotten the weird idea it takes half an hour or a couple of hours, and I've seen assorted clueless types proclaim half a dozen different non-existent "Eyewall Replacements" for one storm in a given day.

4) Eyewall Replacements ALWAYS WEAKEN STORMS. Lot of mythology about that too. While the eyewall replacement takes place, the pressure always rises some and the max wind speed ALWAYS drops. However, the RADIUS of high winds usually gets a lot wider because of the second outer eyewall.

Also, and this is key, a storm doesn't necessarily become stronger after the eyewall replacement than it was before beginning the eyewall replacement. If the storm is more sheared and over cooler water when the replacement is over, it may never restrengthen from the replacement at all. All other things being equal (same shear and water temps) after the replacement is over it will restrengthen to the same strength it was before beginning the eyewall replacement.

[Dog Gone]

I hope you're fully prepared. It's shifting your way. I hope it doesn't get there.

[NautiNurse]

I'm more concerned about BR and Lafayette areas.

[AliVeritas]

Ummm... what's that?