Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Rita continues to threaten the Greater Houston Metropolitan area. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the northeast, increasing the risk to Southwest Louisiana, and a significant portion of the oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Perry is urging all coastal residents between Beaumont and Corpus Christi to evacuate as soon as possible.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[texianyankee]

yeah, I think you are correct. I'm seeing other models that do indeed show the track slightly east of Galveston.

Still way too soon to be sure, however.


On a side note:
The ABC affiliate said the Houston Intercontinental is experiencing some flight delays.
One of the problems being that there have been many TSA employees calling in sick.

[MamaB]

Sorry about that double post. My computer is acting up.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Is there a possibility that you could ride out the storm at your wife's hospital? If some of the staff evacuated, could they use volunteer help for some of the simple tasks? Keeping busy helps the time past faster. If IIUC, you aren't in the storm surge area and aren't along a bayou or in a flood zone area, yes?

Maps to doublecheck:

http://www.houstontx.gov/oem/c5ss.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/tropical/evac_map/gifs/


While I certainly don't want to encourage anyone who can evacuate to stay behind, for the essential personnel and their families who must stay keep in mind that even during the 1900 storm in Galveston, where we see the images of miles of debris wiped out by storm surge, more than 80% of the city's population SURVIVED even all that.

Also, the trend is still eastward. 6Z models were spread from a center of Galveston west to Matagorda and east to the LA border. 12Z models continue this eastward movement, spread from Galveston to Lake Charles, with an increasing cluster east of High Island.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Can still move either way, but the odds of the worst case are still low. Not sugarcoating, but keeping perspective. Don't get too discouraged, still a long way to go with this.

[janetjanet998]

huge NW jog now almost moving due NW the past hour

[Broker]

NOLA assumption from weather channel track line showing norhterly trend.

[Dane]

FWIW, while channel surfing the guy from hurricanelive.com on CNN is saying that it looks like Rita may be heading for the TX/LA border. He is a hurricane chaser so take his opinion for what it's worth.

He did put in the caveat, that it may, and wasn't sure.

Either way everybody on the Texas gulf coast stay safe.

[VirginiaMom]

I will be praying for you and your children.

[NautiNurse]

Oh the eyewall replacement started hours ago.

So are you saying it is almost complete, or still in the beginning stages. I am trying to understand why you are correcting me.

[abb]

not good for lake charles area.

[AntiGuv]

Oh the eyewall replacement started hours ago.

Thank you for confirming what I suspected! (your word is good enough for me) So, now I might ask, isn't it somewhat disconcerting that the storm is undergoing eyewall replacement yet is still a Category 5?

[Diddle E. Squat]

Greg Abbott addressing the price gouging. Ought to state that any case of price gouging will be tried before a Houston jury.

[cgk]

Sending prayers for you and your family. I hope you have been able to get a lot of supplies! Hang in there and be sure to check in when you can and let us know how you all are.

[CajunConservative]

Randy Roach is light years ahead of Nagin.

[handy]

Are you talking about the 'homeless' guys living on the beach? I caught that early this morning. If that is same idiot, did you have that feeling the Reporterette was trying to push the 'Oh, my G*d, you mean you haven't heard, what does Big Daddy need to do' envelope, a little, ala NOLA?

No, I heard it on my XM radio (it was the Fox News feed). It was a woman who said she had never been off the island. She did not sound elderly, maybe 20 to 50 age... hard to tell on the radio. She was rambling about her feet "having concrete in them" and therefore she was unable to cross the bridge, even though she "wanted" to. Sadly, her apparent unwillingness to break her streak of never leaving the island may come to an end this weekend.

[GummyIII]

Oh, mercy...

[RDTF]

Do you have a ping list for Galveston Houston? That is a do not miss slideshow. WOW

[texianyankee]

It's just been reported by the ABC affiliate from Houston that EXXON has decided to shut down their refinery at Port Arthur. (It was operating at a reduced capacity earlier)

There goes the gasoline.....

[NautiNurse]

Don't have a Galveston ping list, and most everyone in that area has already bugged out.

[ContemptofCourt]

I am not getting out. I prayed about it last night and really have a peace about staying. I have 4 small kids and 1 on the way. My main concern is for them and was going to leave for San Antonio at 4 a.m. this morning. The only concern I had last night was the traffic. People are running out of gas and cannot find it anywhere. It will be over 100 degrees today and there are going to be a lot of cars overheat. I think this would be worse for my family.

Traffic has been a nightmare to say the least. My brother turned around after going 10 miles in 2 1/2 hours. After seeing the model go to the east more, NW Harris County will be out of the worst of it. The scariest thing was being in the dirty side of the hurricane and that was the forecast last night. Now it looks like it will go to the east. The weather forecaster said we could expect 70 mph sustained winds and a lot of rain. My house will be able to handle this. I went through Alicia and we had 55-65 mph winds in my part of town.

I am praying protection over my children.

It pains me to read posts like this....quite honestly, noone knows where this storm is going to hit...and this storm is the 3rd most powerful storm ever seen in the Atlantic basin....and houston is darn near ground zero.

You have over 24 hours before the first effects of this storm are felt. IMO, staying put is not the wisest decision. I feel for your children....

[RDTF]

Ah of course.