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Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 09/22/2005 3:25:57 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Rita continues to threaten the Greater Houston Metropolitan area. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the northeast, increasing the risk to Southwest Louisiana, and a significant portion of the oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Perry is urging all coastal residents between Beaumont and Corpus Christi to evacuate as soon as possible.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: beaumont; galveston; houston; hurricane; lakecharles; matagorda; portarthur; rita; texascity; tropical
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To: NautiNurse
I never cease to be amazed how it's always folks who don't live anywhere near hurricanes who get into technical minutiae contests, then get snarky. Why is that? I can predict with 98% certainty the comments that come from Michigan, Wisconsin, Kansas, NJ, and Maryland...

My peeve is when these folks actually are rooting for the hurricane to hit a particular city, as when some yahoo today said he hoped it would hit New Orleans. It's bad enough that it might happen without them wishing it were so.

2,561 posted on 09/22/2005 2:55:20 PM PDT by Blennos (Baton Rouge)
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To: MamaB
From Bastardi's "outlook":

THURSDAY: THE SUM OF ALL FEARS...THE BEAST AIMS FARTHER EAST.

1.) The Rita path will be adjusted east. Slow post-landfall movement in east Texas implies ultimate Texas catastrophic weather event between worst possible landfall site of strongest storm ever to hit the state and then the rainout of the slow mover. This storm will outdo all others combined in post-landfall rain amounts as the front stalls near the storm and supplies extra reason for increasing rain amounts.

2.) Heavy rain could impact New Orleans, if not by direct amounts, then by amounts farther northwest coming down the river.

3.) Severe weather will plague Rita areas for several days.

4.) A much more transient pattern in westerlies over the next 7-10 days allows for cooler air to spread southward. The Japanese ridge is alive and kicking, meaning the ridge lurks off the south Atlantic coast.

5.) Development of cross-polar flow and chillier than normal in Canada ups the temperature sweepstakes for any fronts.

6.) Analogs to middle and late September 1985 are being glanced at, but until I have some time, I can't hone in yet. The point is that new in-close tropical activity is likely to develop next week, be it the wave coming across or just the pattern allowing for southwest Atlantic development.

7.) The strong pulse of convection continues working into the Atlantic basin.

8.) For Texas, the lack of hurricanes over the past 20 years means the rent has come due.

Ciao for now.

2,562 posted on 09/22/2005 2:55:47 PM PDT by cgk (When the BIG ONE wipes out Hollywood can we call it Bush's Fault instead of the San Andreas Fault?)
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To: Howlin

Then why do we have gas ranges to cook on in our kitchens that are run by propane? If it was a significant danger they(gubmint) would not allow it.


2,563 posted on 09/22/2005 2:55:55 PM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: HonestConservative

Despite all our recent imports from Louisiana, we have plenty of room here. Why not move?


2,564 posted on 09/22/2005 2:56:03 PM PDT by Spktyr (Dallas TX (Overwhelminglysuperiorfirepowerandthewillingnesstouseitistheonlyprovenpeacesolution))
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To: kenth
It's those geographic relativists again.

Those darn postmodernists!
2,565 posted on 09/22/2005 2:56:47 PM PDT by hummingbird (21st Century Newsreporting - "Don't get me started!")
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To: kjam22

Propane and gas stoves designed for indoor use may be used indoors. Those that are designed for outdoor use (like grilles, camping stoves, etc.) should not be used indoors.


2,566 posted on 09/22/2005 2:56:58 PM PDT by meyer (The DNC prefers advancing the party at the expense of human lives.)
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To: DallasMike
The Maersk Gabarus is towing the first of 1000 -
5 million tonne icebergs to the gulf of Mexico
to cool sea waters before the next hurricane forms.
Senator Kennedy & environmentalist object to the
terrible treatment to icebergs.


2,567 posted on 09/22/2005 2:57:33 PM PDT by Major_Risktaker
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To: Howlin
Sure gasoline engines are known for not burning completely, because of their design. Everyone has seen tail pipes dripping gasoline at one time or another.

But in reality.... it's pretty difficult to feed a coleman stove with propane and not burn all of the propane. In fact... I'm not sure how you would accomplish that if you really tried to.

2,568 posted on 09/22/2005 2:57:48 PM PDT by kjam22
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To: eastforker

Hello?

Natural gas prodcues it, too.

That's why people use carbon monoxide detectors ANY TIME they burn ANY KIND OF GAS. Inside OR outside.


2,569 posted on 09/22/2005 2:58:06 PM PDT by Howlin (Yeah, I'm a BushBot.....so what?)
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To: steveegg
I'm trying to find more about this on his accuweather.com site, haven't found it yet, but found this (both pics are under 50Kb, I checked first...):


Where is Rita Headed?
Thursday, September 22, 2005 4:40 PM EDT
More News
Rita has been moving steadily the past few days and should continue to do so through landfall along the northeastern Texas coast. We are becoming increasingly concerned that after that, Rita will slow down or even stall somewhere over eastern Oklahoma, or the Arklatex. Shown are two different scenarios of what could happen with the future movement of Rita. In the first scenario, the ridge of high pressure north of the storm breaks into two separate centers and the storm runs the gauntlet in between. In this case, the storm would keep moving and very heavy rain will spread inland with some flooding problems.
In the second scenario, the high pressure to the north will not break down as much. This means there will be no window open to the north for the storm to keep moving through. In this case, Rita will slow down and may even stall. This would end up being worse in terms of rainfall and flooding, since tropical moisture accompanying the storm would be stuck over the same region for at least a couple of days. Rainfall of 20 to 25 inches could be the result and this would cause significant flooding problems.
Story by AccuWeather.com meteorologist Gerald Mohler.

2,570 posted on 09/22/2005 2:58:56 PM PDT by cgk (When the BIG ONE wipes out Hollywood can we call it Bush's Fault instead of the San Andreas Fault?)
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To: meyer

But you STILL need a CO detector inside.


2,571 posted on 09/22/2005 2:58:57 PM PDT by Howlin (Yeah, I'm a BushBot.....so what?)
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To: eastforker

Let's move from CO to Rita, if I can get in a last lick on propane camping stoves used **indoor arenas** ;)

** are mine:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4832a1.htm

"During 1979-1988 in the United States, from 878 to 1513 deaths per year were attributed to unintentional CO poisoning (1). CO poisoning has been reported in many different settings, including homes (5), automobiles (6), and **indoor arenas** (7).

**The findings in this report demonstrate the danger of CO from portable gas stoves and charcoal grills, specifically if placed inside a tent or other confined sleeping area.**

In the United States during 1990-1994, portable fuel-burning camp stoves and lanterns were involved in 10-17 CO poisoning deaths each year, and charcoal grills were involved in 15-27 deaths each year (2). During this same time, an annual average of 30 fatal CO poisonings occurred inside tents or campers (2).


2,572 posted on 09/22/2005 2:59:21 PM PDT by bwteim (Begin With The End In Mind)
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To: Blennos

I hear you. Sick.


2,573 posted on 09/22/2005 2:59:24 PM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: meyer
The risk in using them indoors is that the tank or connections might leak and cause unburned propane to gather and burn all at once. (explode)

That's the bottom line.

2,574 posted on 09/22/2005 2:59:37 PM PDT by kjam22
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To: kjam22
..Everyone has seen tail pipes dripping gasoline at one time or another.

I never have.

2,575 posted on 09/22/2005 2:59:43 PM PDT by SGCOS
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To: Spktyr
Laura Miller has thoroughly annoyed everyone on both sides of the fence. If the Republicans run an even halfway-credible candidate, she's out in the next election.

I wonder if I can run for that spot >:)

2,576 posted on 09/22/2005 3:00:00 PM PDT by Centurion2000
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To: fanfan

Yeah, couple years ago when we had an ice storm that knocked out our power we heated the house with our propane powered fish cooker, just crack the window a bit and no problem. And that fish cooker uses 10 times the amount that little coleman stove uses.


2,577 posted on 09/22/2005 3:00:15 PM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: Not A Democrat
Laura Miller is a limousine liberal Democrat posing as a country club Republican to get elected mayor of Dallas.

Yes, but at least she beat the country club republican posing as a friend of the south Oak Cliff crowd.

2,578 posted on 09/22/2005 3:00:17 PM PDT by PAR35
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To: onyx

Yep, NOLA is starting to get some storm surge(not huge) and rain from the outer bands of the hurricane. Don't know if landfall will move all the way east to Port A. and W. LA, it could still wobble and come in at Galveston or even further west. The models are splitting even farther apart, not converging.


Some models:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=18


More models:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

And a stall close to or after landfall could throw everything off.


2,579 posted on 09/22/2005 3:00:20 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Spktyr
The big difference between this and the SuperDome is that there is STILL more than 30 hours before this thing is going to hit.

It kinda depends on your definition of "hit". By late afternoon local time, conditions will be deteriorating rapidly even though the eye might not make landfall for another eight hours.

I'm going to finish up the last minute things this evening and tomorrow morning with a goal of being completely finished by noon. I have no idea how long power will be out, or even whether it will out for me at all. But a load of laundry, load of dishes, final inspections of tied down items outside, etc., all needs to be complete well before the hurricane officially makes landfall.

2,580 posted on 09/22/2005 3:00:42 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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