Merkel Win Could Kick Start EU Motor
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Should conservative Angela Merkel sweep to victory in Sunday's elections, it could mean a fresh start for strained US-German relations, according to analysts. After dipping to new lows under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his center-left coalition, with differences over Iraq and the partnership linking Germany, France and Russia undermining ties, the relationship seems to have stabilized of late. But a victory by Merkel, an Atlanticist like her mentor Helmut Kohl, could make ties to Washington a lot friendlier. "What is happening in Germany is a catalyst for change," said Rockwell Schnabel, former US ambassador to the European Union and author of a new book on the EU and its contentious relations with the United States. Merkel appears to be "a closer friend of the United States and therefore would lead a policy that would be more pro-American and pro-Atlanticist," he added. Merkel's priorities. After riding a wave of anti-Bush sentiment to victory in 2002, Germany's miserable economic state has forced Schröder to focus on domestic issues in his uphill battle to re-election. Opinion polls show that Merkel, candidate for the Christian Democrats, has a good chance at becoming the country's first female chancellor. But up to 30 percent of the electorate remains undecided. Merkel, 51, has said that one of her priorities if elected would be mending the poisoned relationship with the United States, while still not sending troops to Iraq. Washington is also interested in her aggressive pro-free market agenda. Although Bush officials refuse to publicly comment on the outcome of the Sunday vote, privately they say a Merkel victory would be a welcome change. "If the administration representatives are honest they'll tell you 'Well this is a fresh start and Merkel's victory would be a good thing'," said Jackson Janes, director of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies. "We got a lot of leftovers with the Schröder team and we'll probably never be able to change that, so if we get a new team in Berlin it's an opportunity." Others warned, however, that if Merkel wins on Sunday, the Bush administration shouldn't rush to pop the champagne corks. "I don't think that we here in Washington should escalate our expectations that her parameters would be significantly bigger than Schröder's," Janes said. Dieter Dettke, executive director of Germany's Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which is close to Schröder's SPD, in Washington, said that while Merkel would certainly work hard to establish smoother lines of communication with Washington, in substance there could be little change under her administration as far as foreign policy is concerne. One likely contentious issue, Janes and Dettke noted, was Merkel's opposition to Turkey becoming a full member of the European Union which put her at odds with Washington. Nonetheless, analysts say, relations under Merkel are unlikely to be any worse than they have been with Schröder. "I think that (if Merkel wins) there's going to be much more of an effort to say 'let's see where we agree...'," Janes said. "In the case of Schröder, there was a great deal of concern that they were thinking more about differences rather than commonalities."
Here's hoping Ms. Merkel takes the thing and straightens out that section of Europe. Odd that in order to find their testes, the Germans have to turn to a lady.
If people want on or off this list, please let me know.
Here's the latest article posted on cnn's site concerning the German elections:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/09/17/germany.election/index.html
It's ridiculously biased towards Schroeder whom CNN proudly refers to as the "Comeback Kid of German politics." Also, CNN does their utmost best to minimize Merkel's 6 point lead in the polls describing it as "marginal." I'm sure if Schroeder were leading by 6 points they would label that "solid."
Thanks for the ping to this topic.
"She is vehemently opposed to Turkey's bid to join the European Union, which could please Chirac. Initially an enthusiastic supporter of Ankara's bid, he has become more ambivalent on the subject after the French electorate made clear its resistance to the idea."
Chirac has been ambivalent all along, using the carrot of EU membership to reduce US influence with the Turks, and with (obviously) little intention of actually going through with it.
A regular Google search on "german election" brings up (as the third item) a CNN page titled "CNN.com In-Depth Specials -- Schroeder wins re-election."
It's from 2002.
#1, it's awfully odd that such a page would still be up three years on, on the CNN website, where stories don't have much of a shelf life, and;
#2, it's awfully odd that Google would have that so close to the top, unless it's someone's idea of trying to mislead voters into thinking the 2005 election is decided.
http://newsfromrussia.com/politics/2005/09/18/63112.html
German election: Turks follow tradition by voting for Schroeder
17:38 2005-09-18
Germany's Turks faced a stark choice Sunday: Angela Merkel, who says their homeland should not be part of the EU, or Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder who has long said it should.
As they voted, most interviewed said they favored Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats who, historically, have been thought of as more welcoming to Germany's immigrants than others, including Angela Merkel and the Christian Democrats.
The question of Turkey's possible membership in the European Union is a potent issue. Schroeder supports Turkey's eventual entry, but Merkel and the conservatives have said the country, which bridges Europe and Asia, should only have privileges, not full membership.
Other Turks, however, saw the vote as between the lesser of two evils, noting that Merkel's plans to revive the floundering economy appealed to them, but not the perceived notion that it was hostile to them because of where they were born.
Others said they didn't favor Schroeder or his party, but cast their ballots for the incumbents out of necessity.
This is Germany's first election in which candidates have considered Turks, who began arriving 45 years ago as guest workers, to be a large enough voting bloc to sway the results.
Of the 2.6 million Turks living in Germany, some half a million were eligible to cast votes. In the tight race between Schroeder and Merkel, they could play a key role in deciding the winner.
It was too soon to say exactly how Turkish Germans voted. Past studies have shown that the group the nation's largest Muslim group has tended to support Social Democrats or the Greens. But recently those two parties, which govern together in a coalition, have irritated many Turks by putting through social welfare and unemployment reforms, which have seen cuts to benefits.
Ahmet Iyidirli, a candidate for the Social Democrats of Turkish origin, said that given the vulnerability of Turks and other immigrant groups it was especially important to preserve many welfare benefits against market reforms proposed by the conservatives.
"Giving in fully to the market would be the wrong way the socially weak groups will become the losers in our society, and we don't want this," he told The Associated Press after casting his ballot.
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/article_1048953.php/Polls_open_in_hotly_fought_German_election
Polls open in hotly fought German election
Sep 18, 2005, 13:05 GMT
BERLIN, Germany (UPI) -- National polls opened Sunday for 62 million German voters, as many as 25 percent of whom remained undecided at the last minute.
Campaigning between incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and his conservative challenger Angela Merkel continued until the last minute allowed by law Saturday night, the BBC said.
Schroeder has led Germany for seven years, during which unemployment reached record highs, now nearly 5 million, the highest since 1945.
Economic reform and repairing diplomatic relations have been Merkel`s key campaign themes.
While polls give Merkel`s CDU party a significant lead over Schroeder`s Social Democrats, her hopes of becoming Germany`s first woman chancellor may depend on whether she can form a coalition, the BBC said.
Polls show the CDU has between 41-43 percent of the vote, and its Free Democrat allies up to 8 percent. On Schroeder`s side, the SPD polls between 32-34 percent, while its Green Party allies score about 7 percent and the Left Party about 8 percent.
Copyright 2005 by United Press International
Checking in....Go Merkel!
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/article_1048884.php/Analysis__German_economy_expect_no_change
Analysis: German economy expect no change
By Stefan Burgdoerfer Sep 17, 2005, 23:29 GMT
WASHINGTON, DC, United States (UPI) -- Germany elects a new parliament Sunday. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's challenger Angela Merkel is leading in the polls. Traditionally, leaders of the economy favor Merkel's Christian Democratic Union because it propagates a less regulated labor market and lower taxes then Schroeder's Social Democratic Party.
Surprisingly, this election does not seem to affect the mood of the employers in the world's third largest economy, according to the Manpower Employment Outlook survey.
Merkel regards labor as the key for the urgently needed German economy boom. She steadily repeats her slogan 'Labor has right of way.' A current survey by Forsa, first published by RTL Friday, detects between 48 percent and 51 percent for the CDU and the Bavaria-only CSU. The Social Democrats reach between 32 percent and 34 percent. Forsa questioned 2,004 people; and carries a margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points.
The economy, however, does not seem to be very impressed by Merkel's expected victory. The Manpower survey shows that employers are keeping their wait-and-see mood.
When Schroeder ran for chancellor in 1998 he said his basic aim was to lower the jobless rate. Today it is the highest since the end of World War II. According to the German National Statistics Agency in August, 11.4 percent of the population was out of work. In eastern Germany, the rate rises to 18.2 percent. The German government is no longer able to pay for the much-loved welfare state that guaranteed unemployed people a secure life.
Schroeder's SPD already began reforms to rebuild the social security system in order to spend less money on unemployment, expecting positive effects on the labor market. Merkel's criticism is that his reforms did not go far enough. She believes that firms would offer more jobs if it would be easier to fire employees. Still, Manpower survey reports reserved hiring intentions.
'The return to a negative outlook is probably linked to the uncertainty of the election result and its consequences', said Thomas Reitz, managing director of Manpower Germany. 'Currently, I see widespread uncertainty amongst employers.'
The outlook varies from one sector of industry to another. Employers in the construction industry reported the least positive outlook, whereas the electricity, gas and water industry is expecting to hire the most laborers. The eastern, former communist part of the republic, again, has the least optimistic prospects.
Economists meanwhile reject the results based on this survey. 'Even if the CDU implements all pronounced reforms, it would take years until they take effect,' said Holger Schaefer from the Institute of German Economy. Only CDU's plan to decrease the time in which people earn unemployment could have an earlier effect.
'Unfortunately, the public opinion in Germany is worse then the actual situation,' said Klaus Brandner, SPD's labor and economic politics speaker. Observers from abroad would see the 'great advancement of the government,' he added, referring to a recent cover story of 'The Economist.' He concludes an improvement on the labor market would come from the new number of jobs offered.
Ronald Pofalla rejects that there is any improvement. 'The government produced the biggest chaos on German labor market in 55 years', said CDU's expert of economic politics in the German parliament, the Bundestag. But he is convinced that his party has the solution: 'In our country, two million unemployed people did not finish school.' In order to rise their chances of finding a new job, Germany should 'activate the lower loan sector,' Pofalla said. He promotes a loan model supposed to attract taking an easy, low paid job.
According to Emnid's survey, neither SPD nor CDU could build a government on their own. Even with their coalition partners, they would not have the requested majority.
Meanwhile Germans talk excitedly about a so-called 'grand coalition' of SPD and CDU. German employers consider such a coalition as the worst of all options.
'SPD is fighting for a 'go ahead,' the Union wants a re-launch,' said Ludolf von Wartenberg to the newspaper 'Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung.' The chief executive director of Germany's most powerful industry association, Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie, added: 'This does not fit together.'
Copyright 2005 by United Press International
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/article_1048828.php/Some_world_leaders_want_new_German_leader
Some world leaders want new German leader
Sep 17, 2005, 16:45 GMT
BERLIN, Germany (UPI) -- A European official has jumped into Germany's election campaign and publicly supported the opposition candidate.
Neelie Kroes, the European Union's competition commissioner, said Friday that she wants Angela Merkel and the Christian Democrats to beat Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and the Social Democrats, The Australian reports.
Although they haven't been as publicly vocal as Kroes, both President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair are rooting for Merkel.
Bush and Schroeder have tangled on many issues, especially the war in Iraq.
Blair hopes a change in Germany's regime will speed up European Union reforms.
Kroes said she wanted to see more female leaders in Europe.
Germany's election is Sunday.
Polls show Merkel's party with a slight lead, slim enough to force a coalition government that would reduce Merkel's power to enact the economic reform she wants.
Copyright 2005 by United Press International
If Germans dump Schroeder my opinion of them will be more favorable. Good luck Germany!
ping
Merkel coalition holds narrow lead in German poll (Merkel Retakes The Lead!)
Reuters | Sept. 16 | Reuters
Posted on 09/16/2005 7:51:13 AM PDT by GOPGuide
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1485754/posts
Merkel looks to be leading German electionPolls for the parliamentary election suggested Merkel, leader of the conservative Christian Democrats, would become the nation's first female chancellor, although probably as head of a coalition government. Merkel's plan to patch up relations with Washington, which frayed after Schroeder's refusal to back the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, resonated with some voters as did her position that Turkey should not be allowed full membership in the 25-nation European Union... Stefan Deutscher, a 38-year-old business consultant voting in Berlin... blamed Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, for the high unemployment in Germany - currently at 11.4 percent... By midafternoon, nearly 42 percent of voters had cast ballots, government spokesman Johann Hahlen said. That was slightly less than at the same point during the 2002 election... Merkel's party already controls the upper house of parliament. If it gains control of the lower house, it will be able to move ahead with proposals to streamline the tax system, make it easier for small companies to fire people and loosen the rigid labor market in a bid to tackle unemployment and the troublingly low rates of economic growth... An estimated 500,000 of the 2.6 million people of Turkish origin in Germany are German citizens with the right to vote. Turks have traditionally supported the Social Democrats, though recently they have been angered by his social welfare and unemployment reforms, which have cut benefits.
by David Rising
contributions by Vanessa Gera
Sun, Sep. 18, 2005
10 minutes until showtime BUMP!
Exit Poll on DW:
CDU/CSU: 35.5%
SPD: 34%
Green: 8.5%
FDP: 10.5%
Links: 7.5%
Others: 4.0%
Just heard on FOX that exit polls show that Schroeder will be defeated! Serves him right.
If it does and a conservative candidate wins...this tells the real deal in Germany. Germans look differently than the loony media portrays these German citizen views.