LIVE THREAD - German polls closed: AP: SCHROEDER DEFEATED!

SABC NEWS ^ | September 18, 2005, 08:15

[alessandrofiaschi]

Voting began in Germany's closely fought election today with millions of undecided voters holding the key to a result that will have major implications for economic reform in Europe.

Angela Merkel, a Christian Democrat (CDU) chancellor, is expected to emerge as Germany's first woman chancellor, displacing Gerhard Schroeder who has led Germany for the past seven years at the head of a centre-left government of Social Democrats and Greens.

A provisional result is expected to be announced in the early hours of Monday morning. The final opinion polls published on Friday gave Merkel's centre-right coalition with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) a slim lead in a race it once dominated.

High stakes For Germany and the rest of Europe, the stakes in the election are high. Some five million Germans are out of work, the country's pensions system is in crisis, its public finances are overstretched and the economy that once drove growth in Europe is now acting as a drag on the rest of the continent.

Analysts say that if Germany succeeds in pushing through reforms, they could be a model for change in the rest of Europe. Surveys show that most Germans believe the system needs changing but they are deeply uncertain about how far the changes should go and how the burden should be shared.

Schroeder's own "Agenda 2010" reforms to welfare and labour market rules have been the most ambitious attempt to overhaul the social security system in decades. They have been attacked by the conservatives and by some commentators as not going far enough. The reforms were bitterly resented by voters. - Reuters

[theophilusscribe]

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
—Benjamin Franklin

[frankiep]

Schroeder said that he won't approach the PDS commies to form a coalition. I'm betting that he will change his mind.

[Skylab]

Question though, papers are saying there's no way Merkel would ally with the FDP to get the majority she needs in parliament. Why not?

The don't have the numbers.

CDU 35%
FDP 10%

gives them 45%-48% of all seats in parliament.

[conservative_2001]

"Left Party leader Oskar Lafontaine ruled out forming an alliance with Schroeder's party, shutting out the chance of an all-left coalition."

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/09/18/D8CMQKRG8.html

[Dane]

Thank you for the correct source for the quote.

[30 something american]

"It's ridiculously biased towards Schroeder whom CNN proudly refers to as the "Comeback Kid of German politics."

Didn't they same the same thing about Kerry as he had "come from behind in closing hours" on more than one occasion in senatorial races....?

Last hour comeback = just enough time to "get the fix in".

I hope Merkel backers aren't naive enough to think the same can't happen in Germany...

TS

[ukman]

Everybody here is very surprised that the CDU did so badly and that the SPD did so well.

The consensus seems to be that Kirchhof and his proposals for a flat tax was what crippled Merkel's campaign (as I said it would). The two parties are only about 1.5% apart.

I would think that a Grand Coalition between CDU and SPD is the only real option. Of the other three parties, the Greens are preparing to go into opposition and the Left party has been ruled out as a partner by both the SPD and the CDU (obviously).

Schröder seems to think he can continue as Chancellor, but that's only possible in a traffic-light coalition (Greens, Liberals and SPD). But FDP man Westerwelle has already said he wouldn't ally with the SPD (or will he? His party made massive gains, and then they go into the opposition?). That would be a massive act of betrayal of the CDU by the FDP, of course, but they've done it before.

This would mean the CDU, and the SPD as its junior partner, in a Grand Coalition. Both of them are interested in reforming the system, so they will doubtless arrive at some kind of compromise. However, if Schröder can't form a government as Chancellor on his terms, he won't be subordinate to Merkel in hers.

All very interesting. However, since the CDU is slightly ahead, Merkel has the first shot at forming a government.

[theophilusscribe]

Glad to serve!

[MadIvan]

Just to give some context...at the moment, I have on Wadja's film "Man of Iron", a 1981 Polish film which is a masterpiece of the anti-communist movement in Eastern Europe. It gives an insight how hard it was in Poland, shows actual footage of the Communist government beating Solidarity strikers, etc.

Now these FOOLS, go and vote for the damn Linkspartei, which are the heirs of those bastards who blighted and strangled Eastern Europe for 50 years.

I am disgusted.

Regards, Ivan

[MadIvan]

You're assuming Lafontaine was telling the truth. My understanding of the man is that he would sell his grandmother to a glue factory for a whiff of power.

Regards, Ivan

[Lessismore]

The division of seats in the Bundestag: 

CDU: 220 
SPD: 212 
FDP: 63 
Greens: 50 
Left: 53

which is what really counts, not vote percentage.

[GiveEmDubya]

But FDP man Westerwelle has already said he wouldn't ally with the SPD (or will he? His party made massive gains, and then they go into the opposition?). That would be a massive act of betrayal of the CDU by the FDP, of course, but they've done it before.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=specialreport_index2&sid=azd_fIDDTcOQ&refer=news

Quoth Westerwelle: ``We hope, that in the end it will still be enough for a CDU/FDP government. Otherwise I say now as I have said before the close of the exit polls, we want a true change in policies. We're not available for a coalition with the SPD and Greens or any other variety. We'll continue our policies of economic reason. If it's not enough for a government of CDU and FDP, then we'll stay in opposition.''

[frankiep]

i agree. over 8% of the vote for COMMUNISTS is horrifying.

[goldstategop]

You would think after half a century of socialism and 30 years of real existing socialism in the former DDR, the Germans would learn. Apparently nothing works quite so well as failure.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[MadIvan]

You would think after half a century of socialism and 30 years of real existing socialism in the former DDR, the Germans would learn. Apparently nothing works quite so well as failure.

It's not like the Communists in Germany have even apologised or changed all that much either. They had to elsewhere to prevent being lynched in the streets (not doing so was a mistake in my opinion - we hanged Nazis after World War II). But not in Germany.

Regards, Ivan

[Lessismore]

The percentages have narrowed as follows:

CDU: 35.3 
SPD: 34.1 
FDP: 10.1 
Greens: 8.1 
Left Party: 8.5 

As reported by a major German media outlet.

[Gumdrop]

8% for the Communists seems idiotic and horrifying to us westerners, but considering that the folks in east Germany wre indoctrinated to hate Americans and to expect a welfare state, it's not really too surprising. What is more surprising is the high number who still support the greens and the SPD after all the unemployment. It was not that long ago that the Federal Republic (i.e. West Germany) was the wunderkind of Europe with high employment and a standard of living rivalling the USA. Now, since Schroeder has had to kow tow to the Greens, the entire country is going to hell economically. Perhaps the only exception is Bavaria which is still pretty prosperous. It's not surprising since they are the most conservative and religious of the lot.

[Skylab]

Now, since Schroeder has had to kow tow to the Greens, the entire country is going to hell economically.

And they are running a trade-surplus! How is that possible?!

[goldstategop]

CDU/FDP 45.4%

SPD/Greens 42.2%

So there's a hung parliament. Either that or a minority government. The CDU gets a first shot at forming a government and after that the SPD gets a turn. If no one can form one, new elections are in the offing.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[frankiep]

I don't see Poland, which was just as indoctrinated to hate Americans and expect a welfare state, having the same kind of national dementia. If Poland can overcome it, what the hell is the problem with Germany?