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Posted on 09/08/2005 1:46:25 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia is churning off the Florida Atlantic coast.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Ivan's eye went over my house. Katrina's outer reaches reached my house as well with more bang then we expected (Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay). After experiencing each storm I can say they are all different. Some have more rain (Georges, Danny) others are more windy (Katrina) others in between (Ivan, Elena).
I'm a bit gun shy but just wanted to say keep in mind they all have different 'personalities' and to watch that. Good luck and stay safe!
Thank you!
Nogaps shows quite a storm up the I-95 corridor.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2005091012&prod=prp&tau=120
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2005091012&prod=prp&tau=132
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2005091012&prod=prp&tau=144
:o)
Thanks for your feedback. Glad to assist.
Prior to this year it wasn't that great, but this year NOGAPS has been much better in general.
The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS have all been quite good on this storm overall.
Models look to be diverging again and getting wacky at 12Z; still some more to come out.
Thank you for the very sound advice. I am definitely keeping an eye on the news, and have no intention of taking foolish risks.
The NOGAPS wasn't designed to track tropical lows, but it is often mentioned as a tropical model. This might be because it tends to do better with tropical system placement/pressure than it does with winter storms on the east coast.
The general idea is rather similar to some of the others, it just doesn't move the system far enough west for landfall in SC/NC. Overall, the westerly movement in the short term is very limited. It initialized fairly well, a bit weak... It seems it wants to keep the system in the same general region until the next trough comes along. Considering the NWS forecasts out of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic for the coming days (warm/hot), it seems it might be underplaying the strength of the ridge building in to the north.
Basically at 12Z (ECMWF isn't out yet) every global moved landfall out of South Carolina.
UKMET now doesn't have a landfall at all.
The GUNA consensus now has Ophelia barely clipping Hatteras and then moving out to sea.
Forgot that the Candian basically has it sitting off SC and sort of moving onshore, but I generally ignore the Canadian model at all times anyway.
If that happens, Bastardi will be all over the place proclaiming victory on his pre-season threat areas.
You mean the one where he forsaw hurricane hits from Brownsville to Maine?
Isn't that the truth...he's pathetic...what an ego this guys got. Original he said Emily would go into NC...it ended up in Mexico.
...Ophelia still drifting toward the northeast...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southeast coast of the United States from the Savannah River South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.7 north...longitude 76.2 west or about 225 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 255 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is drifting toward the northeast near 3 mph. No significant motion is expected today but a gradual turn to the west-northwest or northwest is expected on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 977 mb...28.85 inches.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...31.7 N... 76.2 W. Movement toward...northeast near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph. Minimum central pressure...977 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Avila
That's downright comical!
Yup, that narrows 'er right down !
The next hurricane should be named "NautiNurse". :)
Make our checks payable to 'The Nauti Fund' or 'Nurse's Aid' ?
"NautiNurse Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration"
There. I like that better
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