There are loads of useful links in the first post of this thread.
South Carolina Ping
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Posted on 09/08/2005 1:46:25 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia is churning off the Florida Atlantic coast.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Myrtle Beach? That is what it looks like.
There are loads of useful links in the first post of this thread.
...An Air Force plane measured 80 mph winds in Ophelia...now a hurricane again...
At 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southeast coast of the United States from north of the Savannah River South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.6 north...longitude 76.5 west or about 220 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 255 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast near 3 mph. Little motion is expected today with a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 976 mb...28.82 inches.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...31.6 N... 76.5 W. Movement toward...northeast near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 976 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Avila
I'm changing the sheets in the guest room now...:)
sw
an Air Force plane just reported 976 mb and measured 78 knots at 700 mb. Therefore...the initial intensity has been increased to 70 knots. The environment ahead of Ophelia is only marginally favorable for strengthening. Therefore...only slight increase in intensity is indicated in the forecast.
Ophelia has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 3 knots. The track forecast has not changed...with high pressure expected to develop north of the hurricane. This pattern would force Ophelia to move on a west-northwest track in about 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter...the hurricane should continue toward the southeast U.S. Coast as indicated in previous forecasts. Track models have not changed either so there is not much to add.
Ophelia has a large area of tropical storm force winds...and these winds may be approaching the coast earlier than the center of the hurricane.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 10/1500z 31.6n 76.5w 70 kt 12hr VT 11/0000z 32.0n 76.3w 75 kt 24hr VT 11/1200z 32.2n 76.9w 75 kt 36hr VT 12/0000z 32.3n 77.4w 75 kt 48hr VT 12/1200z 32.5n 78.0w 75 kt 72hr VT 13/1200z 33.5n 79.5w 70 kt...inland 96hr VT 14/1200z 35.0n 79.5w 30 kt...inland 120hr VT 15/1200z 37.6n 77.5w 30 kt...inland
The Navy graphic shows a pretty radical turn to the left and soon, even after the 11 AM has it pick up an easterly motion. Is this a RAT hurricane?
I don't think it will strengthen that much. looks like it will come in monday night/early tuesday morning into the northeast quadrant of SC as a cat 1.
Ophelia can't make up her mind.
Alert. I don't know if it's wrong or not, but the link at reply 330 has changed the projected path. All morning it had the hurricane hitting south of Georgetown. Now they show it hitting on the GA/Fla border.
Disregard last. Bad overlay. Looks like Myrtle Beach now.
Anyone know what hurricane Charlie's strength was when it hit Myrtle Beach, please? My house got through Charlie without a scratch, and this'll give me an idea of what to do.
Thanks loads....time to start packing up a "to go" kit and getting the dog and the guns ready to hit the road..... :^)
15 GMT 08/14/04 33.2N 79.0W 75 mph 990 mb Category 1 Hurricane
Keep in mind, though, that Charley passed just to the east of Myrtle Beach and the northeast quadrant is where the worse wind & surge would be. Myrtle Beach would've been in the western quadrants of Charley.
Could you ping me with updates on this storm?
Thanks, You do good work!
Done
Noted. Many thanks.
PING!
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