Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 8 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ophelia is churning off the Florida Atlantic coast.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

The models are converging on SC, with the official track bringing her ashore in the wee hours Tues. morning.

[Iowa Granny]

Good Morning. Do you EVER sleep? Do Laundry? Shop for Grocerie? It seems you're always here.

And we all are most appreciative of your effort. You spend an incredible amount of time assuring the rest of us can bop in for a minute and get the latest hurricane info.

Thank You for all the time and effort you put into these weather event threads.

[NautiNurse]

LOL! Had a good night's sleep, shop once per week...laundry is another story.

[Jet Jaguar]

NOOOO! Go East, please.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Well it better hurry up then because it's getting where it would have to head South to hit us.

[NautiNurse]

This has been a difficult storm for the forecasters and their computers. Two days ago, the models were compared to Medusa's hair, and a squished spider. They are starting to line up now, and their sights are on SC. There is less agreement for landfall timing than general location.

[Jet Jaguar]

Thank you for the info. Could you ping me with updates on this storm?

[NautiNurse]

Done

[Jet Jaguar]

TY much.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

It's almost up to it's projected westward turning point. Let hope for all it doesn't.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Note: check and uncheck boxes at the top of the window for interesting features. Don't forget to occasionally hit refresh at the botom to get the latest report.

[Amelia]

I'm sure she's prepared to weather any storm that comes her way. :)

It's not the point....I live in a mandatory evacuation zone...but in the past 5 years, she has gotten far more hurricanes than I have. ;-)

I'm sure my day will eventually come, but currently it appears that Howlin's day is Wednesday.

[Sammie42]

Once again a thank you for keeping these threads going! Would you please add me to your ping list? thanks!

[janetjanet998]

pressure 976 MB...looks like its a hurricane..again...

[palmer]

RECON REPORTS THROUGH 06Z LOCATED THE CENTER WITHIN A LONE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING SOMEWHAT WITHIN A LARGER MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASUREMENTS BY DROPSONDE WERE 983-985 MB... BUT MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 70 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 56 KT AT THE SURFACE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN TO 3.5. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT. WHILE THIS MAKES OPHELIA A TROPICAL STORM RATHER THAN A HURRICANE... THE WEAKENING IS ONLY SLIGHT AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/9... BUT THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS DECEPTIVE SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ONLY ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS... OR LESS. AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. PROCEEDS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD IN ITS PLACE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STOP OPHELIA FROM MOVING OUT TO SEA AND INSTEAD PERHAPS FORCE IT WESTWARD AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO EVOLVE IS NOT AGREED UPON BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT MOTION...AND IT ALONG WITH THE GFDL BRING OPHELIA TO THE COAST THE FASTEST. CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET STALL THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE LONGER BUT EVENTUALLY BRING IT TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT NORTHWARD.

OPHELIA IS STRUGGLING AGAINST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME VERY DRY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE IMPACTING THE CYCLONE MOSTLY BENEATH ITS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER SINCE CIRRUS IS STILL FANNING OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS NORTH OF OPHELIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW ONLY PEAKS AT 68 KT...WHILE GFDL FORECASTS NEAR 85 KT...WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 85 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL GIVEN THE LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.

WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST LATER TODAY.

An 85 knot storm is managable and this would bring some rain to the mid-Atlantic where some parts are dry:

[Dog Gone]

This looks like a Carolina storm, and she might be a strong Cat 2 at landfall. This would be a good weekend to make sure you have hurricane supplies and are ready for this unwelcome visitor.

[nwctwx]

Back to Hurricane - 80mph sustained.

[nwctwx]

Statement as of 15:00Z on September 10, 2005

at 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the
southeast coast of the United States from north of the Savannah
River South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina.

Hurricane center located near 31.6n 76.5w at 10/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm

[NautiNurse]

Ophelia back to strong Category 1 status...

Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southeast coast of the United States from north of the Savannah River South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina.

[NautiNurse]

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[Alia]

Thank YOU, NautiNurse! Pray it doesn't hit soon, I think I'm on my way to a birthin'. Will be checking into this thread.