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Posted on 09/08/2005 1:46:25 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia is churning off the Florida Atlantic coast.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I just added NC to the topics. Good idea to ping SC heads up.
Charleston, SC area here - Hugo survivor.
The National Hurricane Center has it hitting just below us.
I went out a few hours ago and bought more supplies.
I live 30 miles inland so I will ride this one out.
The storm is now seriously deviating from even the 5PM NHC forecast track; it's WELL east of the track. Will require some major revisions to the forecast, most likely.
I hope it turns and goes out to sea.
I will be watching it closely.
Thanks Swampy I was wondering if there was a thread for this hurricane. Need to keep an eye on this, If it starts to look bad, gonna have to call some friends in Charleston to tell them they are welcome to come up to greenville if they have to.
This thing seems to be all over the place. It has me worried.
Well, I've been SHOOing all day. What is Yomama saying this evening?
I'm 30 miles inland too. I haven't decided whether to evacuate or not - we'll see sometime tomorrow. Just to make sure things are complicated enough, my wife is due to give birth any day now.
See this forecast:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages_dev/ATL/16L.OPHELIA/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html
...Hurricane hunter finds Ophelia moving northeastward with little change in strength...
interests from northern Florida through the Carolinas should closely monitor the progress of Ophelia during the next few days.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 30.4 north...longitude 77.0 west or about 255 miles... 410 km...east-northeast of Daytona Beach Florida and about 240 miles... 390 km...southeast of Charleston South Carolina.
Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 miles...120 km.
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is 985 mb...29.09 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...30.4 N... 77.0 W. Movement toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 985 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
NHC has her coming in as a cat2 now.
You may want to play it safe and travel up state.
Good luck to you!
Thanks for the update...our local news says it could be sometime late Monday.
From the 11pm Discussion:
The intensity forecast remains problematic. The SHIPS...GFDL...and
FSU superensemble all forecast Ophelia to reach 85 kt before
landfall...and the intensity forecast will follow suit. That being
said...the current shear...abundant dry air seen in water vapor
imagery...and broad storm structure will likely slow development.
How long the shear will last is uncertain...as the large-scale
models have differing solutions on how the upper-level winds will
evolve near Ophelia. An extra complication is that Ophelia is
forecast to move over sea surface temperatures of 27-28c...except
when it passes over the Gulf Stream. The slow motion over
relatively shallow warm water may allow the storm to upwell cooler
water and inhibit intensification. It is possible that Ophelia
could become a category three hurricane...but it would not be a
surprise if it strengthened less than currently forecast.
Yep. Our local at WFTV Orlando is now saying what you said earlier. That it will most likely come inland. He said they have it at about 100mph and some models show NC.
To clarify: The 100mph will be at landfall.
The storm is further east than most models showed, and movement hasn't been modeled too well either. SC/NC are the main threat areas now. NHC track looks good, but NC is more at risk than before.
Heads up! The forecast linked at #291 has this one coming to visit you instead of me.
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