Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 8 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ophelia is churning off the Florida Atlantic coast.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Termite_Commander]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 092025
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

...OPHELIA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[nwctwx]

Looks like she is possibly entering a rapid intensification cycle this evening.

[Termite_Commander]

You just may be right. Most of that dry air that hit it yesterday and this morning is diminished, and there seems to be some effort to put an eye wall together. The water's quite warm down there too.

[NautiNurse]

Ophelia back to hurricane strength again...

NE Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas should be following the path of this storm.

[dakine]

Hurricane again? Just like a woman, can't make up her mind...

[Dog Gone]

She may just decide to visit everyone.

[Pyro7480]

Three-day forecast track has it pointed towards SC... not good.

[Bahbah]

Ophelia back to hurricane strength again...

I just heard that. Very fickle. One to watch.

[Guenevere]

I'm east, central Florida....so am I off the hook now :^)

[Pyro7480]

As it is often said in classic Warner Bros. cartoons, "Now, I wouldn't say that."

[Bahbah]

am I off the hook now

Let's hope so. I obviously wouldn't wish a hurricane on any area over another, but gee, if you've already taken your hits, a break seems ok to hope for.

[varina davis]

The NHC is sure befuddled on Ophelia. First, for about a week the forecast was a loop back toward Florida and now a totally different loop NW! Maybe she will split the difference LOL.

[Amelia]

I'm just south of Savannah. I can do without hurricanes as well, but if Ophelia comes in like David did (and as a Cat 1) Pooler & other inland areas ought to do okay, except for the threat of spin-off tornadoes.

After seeing what Hugo did to inland SC, I have no desire to be anywhere near the path of any kind of Cat3 or above.

[nwctwx]

Ophelia is in a typically difficult forecast area for this time of year. Remember the problems NHC had with Floyd?

[Praxeus]

vero did not do okay with david. we got the eye and the thing stalled over the top of us for 7 hours.

tore the town up real good.

nothing like jeanne & frances, though.

[SquirrelKing]

The NOAA map just showed the track rightover Beaufort county. Might get hairy here before Tuesday PM. Yikes.

[lexington minuteman 1775]

Keeping my eyes peeled in Jacksonville.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Hugo was wild, at least going out in the eye was. After six weeks of no power, it isn't so interesting as if it came back on after a few days. Luckily for me I was a bachelor at the time so I didn't lose any food in the freezer.

[Conservative4Ever]

bump

[varina davis]

Yes, I do. They also had some problems with Jean last year. I'm not knocking the NHC, just observing its frustration with Ophelia.