Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 8 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ophelia is churning off the Florida Atlantic coast.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[SC Swamp Fox]

Heads Up! Savannah, GA to Cedar Island, NC. All 5 models at WeatherUnderground have this storm coming ashore in the Carolinas.

South Carolina Ping

Add me to the ping list. Remove me from the ping list.

[NautiNurse]

Model forecast graphic --->Here is self-updating.

I just added NC to the topics. Good idea to ping SC heads up.

[RightWinger]

Charleston, SC area here - Hugo survivor.
The National Hurricane Center has it hitting just below us.
I went out a few hours ago and bought more supplies.
I live 30 miles inland so I will ride this one out.

[Strategerist]

The storm is now seriously deviating from even the 5PM NHC forecast track; it's WELL east of the track. Will require some major revisions to the forecast, most likely.

[RightWinger]

Will require some major revisions to the forecast, most likely.

I hope it turns and goes out to sea.

I will be watching it closely.

[Babsig]

Thanks Swampy I was wondering if there was a thread for this hurricane. Need to keep an eye on this, If it starts to look bad, gonna have to call some friends in Charleston to tell them they are welcome to come up to greenville if they have to.

[oceanview]

[bitty]

This thing seems to be all over the place. It has me worried.

[Amelia]

Well, I've been SHOOing all day. What is Yomama saying this evening?

[Carpe Cerevisi]

I'm 30 miles inland too. I haven't decided whether to evacuate or not - we'll see sometime tomorrow. Just to make sure things are complicated enough, my wife is due to give birth any day now.

[bwteim]

See this forecast:


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages_dev/ATL/16L.OPHELIA/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 15
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 09, 2005

...Hurricane hunter finds Ophelia moving northeastward with little
change in strength...

 
interests from northern Florida through the Carolinas should closely
monitor the progress of Ophelia during the next few days.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 30.4 north...longitude  77.0 west or about  255
miles... 410 km...east-northeast of Daytona Beach Florida and about 
240 miles... 390 km...southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

 
Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near  9 mph...15 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed on Saturday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to  75 miles...120 km.

 
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is  985 mb...29.09 inches.

 
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...30.4 N... 77.0 W.  Movement
toward...northeast near  9 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 985 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

[nwctwx]

NHC has her coming in as a cat2 now.

[RightWinger]

my wife is due to give birth any day now.

You may want to play it safe and travel up state.
Good luck to you!

[NautiNurse]

NHC has her coming in as a cat2 now.

Thanks for the update...our local news says it could be sometime late Monday.

[nwctwx]

From the 11pm Discussion:

The intensity forecast remains problematic. The SHIPS...GFDL...and
FSU superensemble all forecast Ophelia to reach 85 kt before
landfall...and the intensity forecast will follow suit. That being
said...the current shear...abundant dry air seen in water vapor
imagery...and broad storm structure will likely slow development.
How long the shear will last is uncertain...as the large-scale
models have differing solutions on how the upper-level winds will
evolve near Ophelia. An extra complication is that Ophelia is
forecast to move over sea surface temperatures of 27-28c...except
when it passes over the Gulf Stream. The slow motion over
relatively shallow warm water may allow the storm to upwell cooler
water and inhibit intensification. It is possible that Ophelia
could become a category three hurricane...but it would not be a
surprise if it strengthened less than currently forecast.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Yep. Our local at WFTV Orlando is now saying what you said earlier. That it will most likely come inland. He said they have it at about 100mph and some models show NC.

[sheikdetailfeather]

To clarify: The 100mph will be at landfall.

[nwctwx]

The storm is further east than most models showed, and movement hasn't been modeled too well either. SC/NC are the main threat areas now. NHC track looks good, but NC is more at risk than before.

[Amelia]

Heads up! The forecast linked at #291 has this one coming to visit you instead of me.