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The Impending Collapse of Arab Civilization
U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings ^ | September, 2005 | Lieutenant Colonel James G. Lacey, U.S. Army Reserve

Posted on 09/04/2005 8:22:52 PM PDT by Natty Bumppo@frontier.net

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To: Cicero

In terms of economics alone, it seems to me that if a true alternative to Arab oil is introduced, they are 100% screwed. Warfare is another matter, of course.


61 posted on 10/24/2005 5:41:57 PM PDT by ovrtaxt (You nonconformists are all the same.)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Yehuda; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; ...
If you'd like to be on this middle east/political ping list, please FR mail me.

..........................................

An interesting article.

It is a long and impressive list, which unfortunately marks 1406 as the last year a significant contribution was made.

I'm open to correction, but I believe 1406 was also the year of the first Jewish doctor, Elia di Sabato, physician to Pope Boniface IX, soon followed by several others.

62 posted on 10/24/2005 5:49:35 PM PDT by SJackson (I went to the intifada, and all I got was a UN T-Shirt, Hugh Hewitt)
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To: SJackson

Bump for later.


63 posted on 10/24/2005 5:56:06 PM PDT by Valin (Vescere bracis meis.)
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To: kalee

self ping


64 posted on 10/24/2005 6:00:06 PM PDT by kalee
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To: SJackson
This is a fantastic article!

And it also goes to the mindset of the Jihadists. When a civilizations "glory days" were 600 years ago, and they have been unable to make any other significant advances in world civilization, and their "religion" is one of violence, their reflexive inclination will be to attempt to barbarically bludgeon the rest of civilization back in time. I've read many places about the fact that the Arab/Muslim world is suffering from a collective "inferiority complex" and articles like this go a long way in validating that.

65 posted on 10/24/2005 6:01:29 PM PDT by wagglebee ("We are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom." -- President Bush, 1/20/05)
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To: Natty Bumppo@frontier.net
"Make sure China is on our side. Oh, and make a democratic Iran a 'bulwark' against Arab collapse". This is grand strategy as make believe. Why not fight WW II by getting German democrats to form a bulwark against Italy? And the cold war by first, in 1948, making sure Russia is on your side?

If you ignore the problem and pretend it doesn't exist, you can spin all the tales you like. China is not friendly, they like the distraction all this causes us and are furthering it. Iran is the center of Islamic radicalism, which is Islamic and radicalism, not Arabs being pathetic. Wishes aren't horses, beggars do not ride, and engagement is not optional.

66 posted on 10/24/2005 6:30:31 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: Cicero
"This article gives food for thought, but it's not persuasive."

This article is BS.

Only in a society slightly availed of knowledge would a 'youth bulge' create a movement against the established order (Cuba, in the late fifties, Iran under the Shah). In Arab culture the excess young are readily programmed to hate a convenient outsider and to act precisely as their managers direct (China in the late sixties). In today's world money talks and money means any damn weapon you want to add to the inventory (Iran today).

"Arab culture" does not exist, "culture" applies to civilized society, once it applied to Iran, once to Iraq, once to Egypt, and it is a fond memory in france.

"Arab" means ignorant nomad, fanatic xenophobe, and happy fascist. "Arab" means the tribes set in power by bad treaties and by western diplomats themselves ignorant of the fact that the 20th century would be somewhat different than the 18th and 19th.

"Islam" is a gutter belief system geared to such neer-do-well culture and historically foisted on others by the sword.

What in hell makes anyone think that these basic truths might have changed because of ...........what?

67 posted on 10/24/2005 6:32:36 PM PDT by norton (This is not about the DIA or the CIA. This is about CYA...)
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To: norton
PS: The USN Procedings are among the best sources of Military & Naval thought. Agree or disagree, it is a source of understanding of what the very literate within the services are up to...or want to be up to.

Please pay attention.

68 posted on 10/24/2005 6:35:27 PM PDT by norton (This is not about the DIA or the CIA. This is about CYA...)
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To: Mike Darancette

Downhill? That is the end of Eastern Roman/Greek civilization and the beginning of darkness for Christian civilization in Eastern and southern Europe.

Muslims were in their ascendancy in the East.

The West was another story.


69 posted on 10/24/2005 6:53:36 PM PDT by eleni121 ('Thou hast conquered, O Galilean!' (Julian the Apostate))
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To: JasonC
If you ignore the problem and pretend it doesn't exist, you can spin all the tales you like. China is not friendly, they like the distraction all this causes us and are furthering it. Iran is the center of Islamic radicalism, which is Islamic and radicalism, not Arabs being pathetic. Wishes aren't horses, beggars do not ride, and engagement is not optional.

Nailed it. 100%. Funny how this author ignores the fact that Iran is NOT Arab or the fact that everywhere Islam rubs up against a Non Muslim population there is war. Everywhere except Turkey which is, as yet, secular. Start at Bosnia and go around the perimeter of Dar al Islam. Everywhere there is at least limited war between Muslims and non Muslims. Chechnya, the Muslim areas of China, Kashmir, Sudan, Sub Saharan Africa, Bosnia. In a world with suitcase nukes and plague in a bottle, the World simply cannot tolerate this kind of aggressive religious based fanaticism. Either Islam must have their Reformation and crush these traits or they must be exterminated. Like any other rabid animal, you cannot reason with nor contain it.

70 posted on 10/24/2005 7:09:35 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (I'll try to be NICER, if you will try to be SMARTER!.......Water Buckets UP!)
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To: MNJohnnie

Everywhere except Turkey which is, as yet, secular.

________________________________________________________
Not really although that is the myth. Muslim Turks annhilated millions of Christians dhimmis over the past 100 years or so. People who had live there for thousands of years before the Mongol Muslims Turks ever arrived.

The remaining Christians live in terror.


71 posted on 10/24/2005 7:28:44 PM PDT by eleni121 ('Thou hast conquered, O Galilean!' (Julian the Apostate))
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To: Natty Bumppo@frontier.net

Any scenario that marginally mentions Russia as an ally in this war on Islam belies a naive and narrow historical view.


72 posted on 10/24/2005 7:32:00 PM PDT by eleni121 ('Thou hast conquered, O Galilean!' (Julian the Apostate))
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To: hosepipe
Islam has a strong murderological base... ACT LIKE YOU BELIEVE IT OR DIE!...

This is why they can be beaten. Take away that fear of reprisal and hundreds of millions will fall away.

73 posted on 10/24/2005 7:46:32 PM PDT by ichabod1 (PC equals aPCzment)
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To: Natty Bumppo@frontier.net
Still, Islam is not the root cause of collapse. For instance, it has not stood in the way of economic advancement and societal adaptation in Asia

Here is the fundamental flaw of the article. The arabs are the way they are solely due to islam being the only religion there. It is both a religious and cultural system that cannot be separated from the arab failure. Islam so closely controls it's adherents behavior that all creativity is suffocated out of them. If something is not already in the koran then it is forbidden. That's why every islamic country devolves back to the 7th century.

Islam is the enemy and the war on terror ends with the death of the last islamic

74 posted on 10/25/2005 6:04:48 AM PDT by John O (God Save America (Please))
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To: GOPJ
Japan sits on a rock that contains not one drop of oil, not one speck of gold, or for that matter not one of any mineral or substance of value. Nothing, nada, zip. And yet, Japan is an economic powerhouse. And the ME isn't. And then, why? What's the difference?

Excellent example but a better one, and one that really rubs the mohammedans noses in it, is Israel.

Israel sits on the only spot in the ME without oil. They have few resources yet they are by far the economic powerhouse of that part of the world. The people are free, healthy, prosperous and militarily strong. Yet just across the security fence we find poverty that makes our ghettos look like paradise. What's the difference? The Israeli's are Jews and Christians and the arabs are mohammedans.

Even racial characteristics can be ignored in this case as the Jews and the Arabs are both Semitic peoples. The only difference is religion (and the government structure that religion imposes)

75 posted on 10/25/2005 6:13:05 AM PDT by John O (God Save America (Please))
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To: konaice
It will be impossible to "Fix" the Arab world as long as they cling to Islam, because Islam is the fundamental problem.

Worth saying twice!

76 posted on 10/25/2005 6:13:57 AM PDT by John O (God Save America (Please))
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To: MNJohnnie
Either Islam must have their Reformation and crush these traits or they must be exterminated. Like any other rabid animal, you cannot reason with nor contain it.

And the sad fact is that islam cannot be reformed. The koran clearly and explicitly commands the islamic to fight against the unbeliever where ever they are. Islamics will always be terrorists because islam commands them to be.

The war on terror ends with the death of the last islamic. (You can't trust them if they say they convert beacuse islam commands them to lie if they can gain advantage by it.)

Islam truly is the enemy

77 posted on 10/25/2005 6:16:57 AM PDT by John O (God Save America (Please))
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To: Natty Bumppo@frontier.net

I don't believe this, but I like the first option. Flatten 'em and collect the loot.


78 posted on 10/25/2005 6:22:09 AM PDT by Little Ray (I'm a reactionary, hirsute, gun-owning, knuckle dragging, Christian Neanderthal and proud of it!)
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To: Cicero

The Vikings were not a high civilization, either. OK, they got around in their longboats. But they were fierce and they wreaked havoc on Britain, which was a peaceful and ordered civilization. The veneer of civilization is thin and easily shattered; chaos merely destroys it -- that part is easy.


79 posted on 10/25/2005 6:34:53 AM PDT by bboop (Facts are your friend.)
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To: SJackson
Throughout the article, and the comments, (except for yours) there is not one commentary on the Jews or Israel and the fate of same, in relation to dealing with the Islam and Arab decline of civilisation..

I will hope this is an oversight on the author's part, although he manages to include Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, and all of Southern Europe in his "containment" strategy..
I still find the exclusion of even a mention of Israel somewhat disconcerting..

It is, after all, Israel that is the target of the majority of Arab hatred..
Even it's hatred of the West is via "support" of Israel..

Let us hope that the author's strategy holds a place for Israel, somewhere, and that it is not to be left to be a sacrificial lamb, staked out in the desert and surrounded by jackals..

80 posted on 10/25/2005 6:59:08 AM PDT by Drammach (Freedom; not just a job, it's an adventure..)
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