Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VII

NOAA - NHC ^ | 28 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin conceded that as many as 100,000 inner-city residents didn't have the means to leave and an untold number of tourists were stranded by the closing of the airport. At this hour, people are still filing into the Superdome after security screening for weapons and contraband. National Guard have brought in 360,000 MRE (meals ready to eat) to feed the estimated 30,000 storm refugees in the Superdome.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

Fully-linked version of the live feeds (just in case a few people don't want to first open up WMP to cut-and-paste) -

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/

1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT

Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast

.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518 WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans via WESH-TV/DT Orlando - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38843.asx

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks. The end of the week figures could be quite interesting.

[nopardons]

That we do...but I fear that we won't get one. The eye is only 100 miles away from NO now and roaring toward it.

[RobbyS]

Not many big city mayors are first-rate men. Look at the fool in NYC.

[Mo1]

I heard that President Bush strongly suggested it.

I'll bet that Jeb got on the phone and asked him to do something

That Gov of Louisiana screwed up BIG TIME

[NautiNurse]

LOL! Did he mention the nutria?

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

regarding that Superdome, earlier there was discussion of the variance of the winds destructiveness with windspeed. I noted that the power was cubed with speed. I may have been confused, but I rechecked a wind power seb source and found this:
"An important equation used to find the wind power density, how much power is available per square meter is the equation
P = .5 pu³

, where P is the wind power density in W/m2, p is the density of the air, and u³ is the cube of the wind velocity.

An equation for the power available is :
(kinetic energy flux) = .5 p V(3) A---(that is V cubed).

, where p is the kinetic energy density J/m³, V is the velocity of the wind, A is the cross sectional area of the wind on the turbine."

It seems to me, the energy of the wind is related to the cube of the velocity. I would naturally assume that the destructiveness will be related directly to that kinetic energy.

[RobbyS]

Pray harder.

[CindyDawg]

I think my husband and I saw that once. We were driving home one night and there was green light that kind of expanded out and up, and then it was gone. We thought an explosion or a plane crash but nothing happened.

[newzjunkey]

When tens or hundreds of thousands of lives are at stake, SLACK should *not* be granted. Sorry. I saw the press conference. He was fumbling and bumbling. If loss of life is serious, blood will be on his hands.

[Chena]

I'll try to see if I can find a replay of the "mandatory evacuation" press conference. I had the t.v. turned up as loud as possible today while we worked on our porch roof, but I don't think I heard it, or didn't hear it all.

[jeffers]

Three, maybe four areas of strong localized shear offshore in this image (green and red close together, potential tornadoes):

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=klix&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadialVelocity&prodnav=none

[PhiKapMom]

When someone brings Pres Bush's speaking ability and compares it to the Mayor, it is apples and oranges IMHO and smacks of what the RATs always bring up -- thus my comments.

Prayers go out to all of the people in the way of this hurricane but I am not changing my mind on the Democrat Governor or the Mayor who didn't take action rapidly enough IMHO.

[Miss Marple]

Yes, he should have had a plan in place. The possibility of this disaster has been discussed for years.

I am not holding him responsible for stupid people. But I simply cannot excuse the numbers of people who would have left if they could have had some transportation provided, but are instead sitting in the Superdome.

[Spktyr]

Perhaps we'll see more development of the rail system as an aftermath of this - rail is *still* the most efficient ground transport system for evacuation and linear transport.

[BurbankKarl]

You know, there were a lot of people headed east when they stopped the counterflow pattern.....wonder where they were going.

[Skywarner]

I hate to say it, but I would expect crude prices to be over $80 if the damage is "light" and _easily_ around $85-$90 if the damage is extensive. If it is cataclysmic as is expected, prices will be above $100 by week's end.

[newzjunkey]

To report price gouging in Louisiana, you can phone 1-800-488-2770. A lawyer with the state's AG office is waiting to take your call *right now*.

[JeffAtlanta]

There are people without money, without vehicles to travel. Instead of being able to get those people out on some form of public transportation, the failure to act has put them in a last ditch effort to stay alive by riding out the storm in the Superdome.

What sort of public transportation could New Orleans mustered to move 100,000 people in 18 hours? Others have suggested totally unrealistic ideas such as steam boats and C-130s.

The guys may not have made the best decision, but these decisions aren't as easy as many are making them out to be. We go through this all the time everytime something happens in this country and the democrats start yelling "Bush had not plan" or "Rumsfeld should have anticipated this".

[hoosiermama]

Night..... See you before dawn.

[pax_et_bonum]

I've never seen such pathetic negligence from a mayor .. this will come back to seriously haunt him ..

I agree.

Goodness knows I don't want to pin anything on anybody, but people who choose to accept positions of leadership have to be able to make important decisions and make them at the right time.

Sometimes we have to just do the right thing and worry about the consequences later.