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Posted on 08/28/2005 2:38:16 PM PDT by NautiNurse
No, queenkathy, they are not.
That is the problem.
Everyone thought this was media hype and there was no action.
Long story short, anything that could have slowed it, weakened it, turned it, never came to fruition.
Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 25
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2005
there are conflicting signals regarding the intensity of Katrina.
The NOAA aircraft near 00z reported a peak flight level wind of 155
kt...which would normally correspond to 140 kt at the surface. The
pressure remains extremely low...904 mb at last report. On the
other hand...the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer...or
SFMR...suggested winds were in the 120-130 kt range...and limited
dropsonde data also suggested something a little below 140 kt.
There are enough questions about the performance of the SFMR at
these speeds for ME to stick with the Standard 90 percent
adjustment for now.
There have been some modest changes in the structure of Katrina over
the last several hours. Recent microwave passes show that an outer
eyewall is in the formative stages...and the latest IR images show
a less well-defined eyewall with more evidence of outer banding.
The NOAA hurricane hunters also reported an erosion of the eyewall
in the southwest quadrant. These observations suggest that there
could be some weakening of Katrina prior to landfall. All this is
relative...however...and Katrina is still expected to be of at
least category four intensity when it reaches the coast. An eyewall
replacement at this point is not all good news...as they are
generally accompanied by a broadening of the wind field...so that
even as Katrina weakens there could be an increase in the area that
experiences major hurricane force winds.
There has been no significant change to the track forecast. The
initial motion is 335/9. Katrina is expected to gradually turn
northward into a break in the subtropical ridge associated with a
large mid-latitude cyclone near the Great Lakes. Model guidance
remains tightly clustered...with the NOGAPS shifting just a bit
east of its previous track. While there is great significance for
the city of New Orleans in the details of the track...track
anomolies of 30-50 miles are still possible even 12-18 hours out.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 29/0300z 27.6n 89.4w 140 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 29.2n 89.7w 135 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 31.8n 89.5w 85 kt...inland
36hr VT 30/1200z 34.8n 88.1w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/0000z 37.7n 85.9w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 01/0000z 43.5n 78.5w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 02/0000z 50.0n 70.0w 25 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 03/0000z...absorbed
If you find a thread that is more fact and less yak will you ping me to it, please.
145 knots at 5000 feet per aerial recon. said he feels really sorry for the people. vicious storm . 165 mph winds
tornadic looking winds
very dangerous storm
right now cat 5 storm
incredibly intense
heed evacuation
personal feelings - incredible disaster..another camille -but worse..devastation along the coast
I am worried about Shep, and all those people waiting to get into the stadium, too. I am struck, also, as I watch the weather channel coverage, on the number of cars on the I-10, 2 lanes, bumper to bumper crawling and still trying to flee the area. They are sitting ducks. I wonder if they just can't use one of the inbound lanes as an outbound.
What does that mean - '907'?
pan fried? How do you do that?
Listening to that - he doesn't sound very positive.
It's chilling to hear ... Heaven help everyone.
Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 25
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on August 28, 2005
...Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina continues to approach
the northern Gulf Coast...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from
west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Destin Florida
eastward to Indian Pass Florida...and from Intracoastal City
Louisiana westward to Cameron Louisiana.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 27.6 north...longitude 89.4 west or about 105 miles
south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 170 miles
south-southeast of New Orleans Louisiana.
Katrina is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph...and a
turn to the north is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the
forecast track the center of the hurricane will be very near the
northern Gulf Coast Monday morning. However...conditions are
already deteriorating along portions of the central and
northeastern Gulf Coast...and will continue to worsen through the
night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph with higher gusts. Katrina
is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some
fluctuations in strength are likely prior to landfall...and Katrina
is expected to make landfall at either category four or five
intensity. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings
will be significantly stronger than those near ground level.
Katrina remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles. A wind gust to 90 mph was
recently reported from Southwest Pass Louisiana.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 904 mb...26.70 inches. An
Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will be reaching the
center of Katrina very shortly.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide
levels...locally as high as 28 feet...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Some levees in the greater New Orleans area
could be overtopped. Significant storm surge flooding will occur
elsewhere along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches...are possible along the path of Katrina across the Gulf
Coast and the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches
are possible across the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes
region Tuesday and Wednesday.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible this evening over southeastern
Louisiana...southern Mississippi...southern Alabama...and over the
Florida Panhandle tonight.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...27.6 N... 89.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 904 mb.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Franklin
I don't think they evacuated the patients.
THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA.
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT NEAR 00Z REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 155
KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO 140 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
PRESSURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW...904 MB AT LAST REPORT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...OR
SFMR...SUGGESTED WINDS WERE IN THE 120-130 KT RANGE...AND LIMITED
DROPSONDE DATA ALSO SUGGESTED SOMETHING A LITTLE BELOW 140 KT.
THERE ARE ENOUGH QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SFMR AT
THESE SPEEDS FOR ME TO STICK WITH THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT
ADJUSTMENT FOR NOW.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEST CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF KATRINA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER
EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...AND THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW
A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED AN EROSION OF THE EYEWALL
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAKENING OF KATRINA PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL THIS IS
RELATIVE...HOWEVER...AND KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT
LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS...AS THEY ARE
GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD...SO THAT
EVEN AS KATRINA WEAKENS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE AREA THAT
EXPERIENCES MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 335/9. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE NOGAPS SHIFTING JUST A BIT
EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. WHILE THERE IS GREAT SIGNIFICANCE FOR
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...TRACK
ANOMOLIES OF 30-50 MILES ARE STILL POSSIBLE EVEN 12-18 HOURS OUT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
"Another Camille but in a larger sense and the best we can hope for is an eyewall replacement before landfall."
HOW could they cut off that guy????He IS the story.
geesh, fox...that was lame.
I was referring to the Sisters of Boom Boom. But I really did not want to mention that group. Some could refer to just a few people. But I am sinner as well, so God could just as easily have a problem with me...
I thought he said 135 kts flight level, 145 5k'. Either way, this thing is still a monster.
BB King is 80 and he still has it. And a great opening,,a guy from Shreveport Kenny Wayne Sheppard,,an incredible young bluesman. Unbelievably good.
I can't believe they cut to a commercial on Fox. They have a phone tap to the Air Force plane flying in it right now...
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