Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Carolinamom]

Heard the NO mayor say that he "knew President Bush would send us everything we need."

[Clara Lou]

The anchor on WWL says that upper floors of hotels will not be safe because the winds will be higher up there. I hope that this thing misses NO to the east or the west. That's wishing it on some place else, but where ever that is, there will be fewer people.

[kenth]

Just a few short days ago, she was flattened out and not really expected to be much of a problem; not well organized, probably become cat 1 if at all and curve northeast before landfall.

[oceanview]

CNN pushing the same mantra about LA guardsmen being in iraqi. that must have gone out as a talking point from the DNC this morning, they will all be repeating it.

[bwteim]

Interesting links related to history of rivers in area and possible impact of flood events:

The Mississippi Levee System and the Old River Control Structure (ORCS)
http://www.tulane.edu/~bfleury/envirobio/enviroweb/FloodControl.htm

Ecology of the Mississippi River Delta Region
Controlling the Mississippi River
http://www.loyno.edu/lucec/mrdcontrol.html

Floods on the Lower Mississippi: An Historical Economic Overview
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd98-9.htm

[mware]

Telling people stuck in the hurricane to go to the third floor at least.

Let's see NO is 6 ft below sea level. Storm surge of 20-25 ft., with 10 foot waves and 175 miles an hour winds. That mades it 41 ft of water.

The third floor is not going to cut it.

[rickylc]

thanks, that's what i had thought was the case

looks like Fox is calling it right by saying the city will be flooded and the levies will break then?

[Howlin]

I don't see one thing to slow her down either.......no wind sheer and boiling water all the way to the shore.

It's just going to be horrible.

[cmsgop]

We will be praying for you,count on it!

[kenth]

He can't send backbone, unfortunately.

[advance_copy]

Once darkness falls tonight, if roads are still gridlocked with tropical force winds, it will be mass panic. OMG.

I just don't see how they are going to evacuate a city this size before dark. Tropical force winds will be there before then. OMG is right.

[Dog Gone]

New Orleans can't survive a Cat 4 storm, much less a Cat 5. The folks who spent a lot of time and money boarding up the windows on the first and second floors of buildings were engaged in a pointless effort.

[Prolifeconservative]

We live 10 miles NORTH of Covington.......about an hour ago our smalltown firetruck went up and down the streets warning citizens. Using a P/A system, all residents were warned by the firemen. It was an eerie, eerie feeling to see and hear. We are out of here!!!!!!

PRAY FOLKS LIKE THERE IS TRULY NO TOMORROW!!!

thanks to all here! God Bless!

[nwctwx]

This is deadly serious.

If things don't change, this will likely be the largest natural disaster ever in the U.S. I fear hundreds could die.

[rwfromkansas]

DT and others are starting to hype the turn and say this will hit east of NO toward Mobile.

I think this is nonsense, unfortunately.

It is turning when it should be turning according to the NHC schedule.

It will probably go slightly east of NO, but within 30 miles.

[Laurita]

Thanks for the explanation. I've been out of the loop since I moved out of Louisiana.

At what point do you suppose the flood gates will actually start doing more harm keeping the water in that good keeping the water out? Because of the levees and the flood gates, there won't be anywhere for the water to go. The pumps won't work when the electric and gas supply lines are cut . . .

[Gabz]

FNC just repeated that the Bush statment at 12:30 Eastern is about the Iraq constitution.

[oceanview]

I am not an expert, but I imagine that it will depend alot on the angle of approach the thing takes as it come ashore - that will have alot to do with the direction of the dome of water that will be pushed ashore.

[DouglasKC]

Would somebody please explain something to me?? They keep showing highways in NO with people evacuating. There's one really busy lane heading out and two or three less busy lanes. Coming into town there are 5 or 6 lanes that are virtually empty. Why don't they use those lanes so people can get out??

[Peach]

Sometimes when I hear that people are thinking they can outfit their homes for a Category 4 or 5 storm, I despair. Do they not watch the Weather Channel and see pictures of the destruction these storms do?