Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[tiredoflaundry]

No one knows. All the wind gauges were destroyed.

Quite a telling statement!

[Strategerist]

All the other models are a NO hit.

However it's obviously not 100% guaranteed it happens.

If there is a miss, it appears at this point it will be to the east, not the west.

[NautiNurse]

Last night, the mayor was telling people to take the train out of town.

[Kozak]

I know, the mayor should call a meeting of all the trial lawyers in NO and hold it in the French Quarter, so they can be in the right spot to access the legal implications as the storm hits.....

[Peach]

Hi, spectre. Good to "see" you. You're right...time is getting short and with the traffic problems, I don't think everyone who might want to get out can get out.

So one hour from now the mayor will have a press conference. I can't wait to watch this clueless sob.

[LA Woman3]

Speaking of exercise....
A reporter said he saw people out walking/jogging in the New Orleans area this morning!

[Sprite518]

Yes anyone who stays in town is crazy. I hope the Super Dome can handle the Cat 5 winds.

[spectre]

Oh wow...Superdome a shelter of last resort? Imagine..running out of food...no electricity.. blocked up toilet facilities, no running water and surrounded outside by a cess pool.

No thanks..

[mware]

I know it spawned tornado's. Some NG documentary I watched said the tornadoes where F5's.

Just heard the levies were set to withstand Cat 3 storms not Cat 5.

[jsh3180]

"What does a mandatory evacuation look like? Round folks up at gunpoint and load them on cattle cars?"

Here in the Florida Keys, where I have lived for 30 years, I have seen umpteen "mandatory" evacuations. Fact is, nobody goes door to door and drags you out of your house. Use of the word "mandatory" is a CYA announcement by emegency officials.

[Petronski]

Then the mayor ought to make a public declaration something like:

I can't declare a mandatory evacuation, but it is just that bad. GET OUT. Do what you can to LEAVE NOW. If I had the power to do it, I would force you to leave. GET OUT.

[rollo tomasi]

"Even if we round up the buses, where do we send people?"

Should have been planning this the first day you took office. You would think the City Officials in NO have an idea of what a hurricane is.

[NautiNurse]

If there is a miss, it appears at this point it will be to the east, not the west.

the same direction every other N GOM storm has drifted from projections since last year.

[Strategerist]

There was recon of Andrew right up until Landfall, so land-based anemometers weren't the sole source of data.

The reanalysis of Andrew in 2002 put the winds of Andrew at Landfall at 145 kts.

[TomGuy]

Trying to listen to 3 different stream feeds---

the weather lady commentator on WDSU TV said something about 'if the wall goes, so does New Orleans.'

I saw graphic in one of the threads that showed N.O. between MS River and Lake Pontchartrain and how below-sea-level much of it is.

[I would feel uncomfortable visiting such an area, much less living there. lol]


From another thread:

They are caught between Lake Pontchartrain and the mighty Mississippi. This could be really bad.

94 posted on 08/28/2005 5:14:40 AM CDT by Sender

[Sender]

They are caught between Lake Pontchartrain and the mighty Mississippi. This could be really bad.

[cyborg]

Wow that's hardcore...probably something I'd do just to say I did it :o)

[Peach]

This just cannot be right. I'm not doubting your reporting, Tom, which I know is topnotch. But because of a legal technicality, they can't order an evacuation?

I find it difficult to believe that other cities that have been through this and have ordered mandatory evacuations had places to put people.

Darned lawyers -- they are ruining the country.

[spectre]

"Clueless SOB"!!! LOL, you always call it like is..Peach!

Thanks, I'll watch :)

[Peach]

I'm going to do some stuff around here so I can be with you all at 10:00 EST. I'll see you then :-)

[4everontheRight]

I lived through Camille and it broke the wind gages as well.

I never thought I would ever see another one like it in my lifetime. It has been 36 years and I still remember it like it was yesterday