Posted on 08/27/2005 12:43:32 PM PDT by DoctorZIn
Alan Peters: The name “Alan Peters” is a nom de plume for a writer who was for many years involved in intelligence and security matters in Iran. He had significant access inside Iran at high levels during the rule of the Shah, until early 1979.The news item below hidden among so many other stories, fails to call enough attention to perhaps the very worst that could happen seemingly to be about to happen.
Oil might soon no longer be linked to the US Dollar and move to the Euro.
As many of you know, a primary "oil" consideration for going to war in Iraq was to try to prevent this happening. Not - as the Cindy Sheehans or liberal Democrats with kitchen table knowledge of world politics and economy trumpeted - to put money into the pockets of Bush's cronies or Halliburton. To protect tens of millions of Americans from internal disaster within our own shores.
If the trend from the Dollar to the Euro happens too abruptly, we in the USA can look to having some 200 MILLION Americans starving in the streets within a short time frame. No exaggeration! Do the math! <
And unlike the Great Depression of the 1920's there will be nobody, nor any organization capable of setting up soup kitchensfor them. Even slow transition, as it appears to be evolving, will almost certainly turn us economically into an insular fifth world country with inflation somewhere along the lines of Argentina. Central Banks of our friendliest nations will be unable to absorb the dollars flooding the market without buyers, to maintain a value for our currency - which they no longer need anyway.
Simplistically put, without a need for dollars with which to buy oil, Central Banks that hold huge dollar reserves virtually for only this reason, will dump their American currency. An unavoidable consequence would be a 40% drop - at least - in the value of the Dollar.
The USA could then no longer afford, nor be able to service our national debt. Do the math with this parameter, too.
All investors and credit holders would pull out of the USA market - including from Wall Street and American industries. Americans could no longer afford to buy things, so have zero market value for investors.
The price of oil for the USA would be more expensive than ever since the "dollar tax" mentioned in the article below would be reversed and America would have to pay a "Euro conversion Tax" to import oil. The cost of everything in America would spiral upward similar to what happened in Germany after World War II, where you needed a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread!
Today, instead of Adolf Hitler, read Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejat, the new President of Iran and history repeating itself.
Note: the huge resistance of France and Germany to removing Saddam Hussein, apart from the oil for food corruption, was in the short sighted hope of encouraging this transition. Iraq was already planning to unlink oil prices from the Dollar to the Euro. Russia, with huge oil reserves of its own, was more than happy to be complicit in the extra revenue from this change and some oil producing countries had already begun selling some of their capacity in Euros.
All this began on the Clinton administration watch but the time frame was such that he would be out of office by the time it hit, so he refused to deal with it. When oil-savvy Bush and Cheney took over, they saw the disaster on the horizon and took steps - no matter how unpopular - to try to deal with it. The most critical challenge was to be able to dissuade all the other OPEC countries from dropping the Dollar and adopting the Euro.
Iraq has been a warning shot across their bows - but Iran has now tilted the playing field in the opposite direction, adding nuclear weaponry as a potential enforcement threat of their plans to destabilize the USA economy (a constant dream of Al-Qaeda, too) without caring, considering their iron fist control of their own population, that a domino effect would ensue and the rest of the world economy could easily collapse.
Holding huge oil and gas reserves with which to barter, (money could become almost worthless) Iran stands to come out smelling of roses as the world crashes. Plus nuclear energy established inside the country would reduce their own dependence on fossil fuels and make them even more powerful. Possibly along with China and India, reaching superpower status.
How sad, in the face of real challenges, that the Cindy Sheehans, the almost abjectly ignorant or self-satisfied politicians in both parties, can only think within their tiny mental boxes and attack the Bush administration for selfish, local, kitchen table level reasons, when we are facing an all obliterating, global, economical Tsunami which jeopardizes our very existence and survival.
I may be off in the urgency of time frames I posit but not in the inevitable overall direction in which we hurtle to disaster- unless we do something about it. That something requires lethal action toward Iran without thought of liberal or European hand-wringing.
The duty and responsibility of the President of the United States is to protect his nation, his people and ensure their survival and well-being. Inactivity against the Iranian Hitler situation will only result in more millions of Americans dying or in distress than there a Iranians in Iran. Pick a side in this equation based on logic, not "in a perfect world" scenario that Ahmadi-Nejat openly scoffs at and denigrates as Western weakness. For now he is right, we are.
Alan Peters
Orange County, CaliforniaDoctorZin:
Would any of our readers who are economists or commodity experts want to respond to this? I would love to hear from you.
- General Paul Vallely, Executive Intelligence Review reported that he knew that Osama bin Laden was in Iran, and that Iran already has nuclear weapons. A Must Read!
- Toni Straka, Speaking Freely, Asia Times asked: Could the proposed Iranian oil bourse (IOB) become the catalyst for a significant blow to the influential position the US dollar enjoys?
- Francois Murphy, Reuters reported that Iran's top nuclear negotiator is to meet the head of the U.N. atomic watchdog on Friday.
- Tom Valasek, The Wall Street Journal thinks the one bright spot in the EU3 negotiations with Iran is: Europe and the U.S. rediscovered some of their old unity.
- Radio Free Europe reported that Iran said it sees no justification in continuing nuclear negotiations exclusively with Britain, France, and Germany.
- Nasser Karimi, The Miami Herald published Europe's response to Iran's proposal of expanding the number of nations involved with their negotiations.
- Middle East Newsline reported Britain donated armored vests to Iran's security forces.
- Reuters reported that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad convened his depleted team of ministers for their first meeting on Thursday after suffering the ignominy of seeing parliament rejects four of his cabinet picks.
- Amnesty International is calling on the Iranian authorities to prevent the execution of two teenagers in Iran.
- Amnesty International called for urgent action in the case of Iranian dissident Hojjatoleslam Ezimi Qedim, out of fear for safety/fear of torture or ill-treatment.
- Kamal Nazer Yasin, Eurasianet reported that Iranian President Mahmood Ahmadinejad’s cabinet selections indicate that Iran’s leadership is preparing for domestic challenges and a possible confrontation with the West.
- SMCCDI reported that several militiamen and armed individuals have died in a clash which happened near the northwestern City of Mian-do-Ab.
- Rooz Online reported that Ali Larijani, the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said: The US strategy today is to hold a stick high and force weaker states to commit suicide.
- Dow Jones Newswires reported that Iran appointed a new chief for the air force component of the country's elite Revolutionary Guards Thursday. Gen. Alireza Zahedi.
- Sean Penn, The San Francisco Chronicle, Day Four of his Five part series. Sean attends a demonstration in Tehran.
- The Christian Science Monitor reported that we are at a pivotal moment for 'axis of evil.'
- Islamic Republic News Agency reported that the Iran's Majlis deputies Wednesday gave votes of confidence to 17 ministers proposed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. See list.
- And finally, another Rooz Online Cartoon of Ahmadinejad.
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The United States will colonize some desert regions prior to becoming a "5th world country", and will have the support of about 200, 000,000 Americans.
Let the nuking begin.
Build their gallows high
Is the sky falling yet?
HA!
We'll have 3 new 'territories'... Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria... re-populated and striving for statehood!
Are there any economists out there that can weigh in?
I'm no economist, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.
The rest of the world, wouldn't like to see this happen
as it would mean a terrible revaluation for them too.
I only hope those who are hopeing for this get to truly
experience the result of their meddling.
Oil Expert Predicts Apocalypse, But Few are Listening
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1469580/posts
"All investors and credit holders would pull out of the USA market - including from Wall Street and American industries. Americans could no longer afford to buy things, so have zero market value for investors..."
I'm no economist...but
Do you know how incestuous the intertwined corporations are throughout the world? How much American multi's own of other multi's who own other multi's?
How much do other countries stand to lose if they dump? Insanity.
Iran can dream but this won't happen.
We can and do produce our own, own our own, and stockpile. We manufacture and own the financial arena.
How would Iran like it if we devalued our buck and replaced the whole shebang with gold? Might be interesting to see other fiats crash and the price of gold go skyrocketing. That would kill the economy of the entire world.
Or
Bifurcate the currancy and have one for that hemisphere and a new regional currancy for the South, Central and North American region.
Or
other things. War is one thing. Screwing the bankers is another and between the bankers and Islam, the bankers will always win. In fact, the bankers win...period.
Instant response...having not thought it through, but to offer alternate analysis:
Question: Wouldn't a devalued dollar - especially significant reduction - trigger massive purchases by companies and consumers in other countries? Wouldn't we be flooded with tourists? Both these would create employment -not eliminate it. (Purchasers of Chinese goods would switch their purchase orders to any U.S. manufacturer who could produce.)
Central banks and investors holding dollar based assets would initially buy up dollars to prevent just the catastrophe you describe.
The Oil Reserves stored in Louisiana would be released to initially offset the adjustment to the Euro.
The Federal Reserve would withdraw trillions of U.S. currency from circulation.
U.S. Government would release certificates to all individuals to use for obtaining food/necessities.
Illegal immigrants would all pack up and go home - where their own money was worth more. :o)
Just random thoughts. I DID take Economics in college. But as I recall it was Fall Semester thus football season.So I cut Friday classes and was hung over on Monday. Keep this in mind as you evaluate my expertise. Also, I DID stay in a Holiday Day Inn Express last night! :o)
Oh, one more thing: That gold bracelet you gave your wife for her birthday? You could live off the proceeds from the sale of it for a year!
Jeez!! I gotta type faster!! It hurts to have someone use my "Holiday Inn" joke first!! :o)
For the record, that was after WWI. Weimar Republic.
http://www.exitmundi.nl/Sunburn.htm
In case you didn't know, the Sun is in fact a huge nuclear power plant. It runs on hydrogen. The Sun transfers hydrogen atoms into helium by nuclear fusion. It's nothing like the puny hydrogen bombs humanity finds so impressive. Each second, no less than 400 million tons of hydrogen goes boom.
Unfortunately, the amount of fuel inside the Sun is limited. You can't see it, but in fact, that huge light bulb in the sky we call `Sun' shrinks and cools down a tiny little bit every second. The Sun is `middle aged'. In another 5,000 million years, it will run out of hydrogen.
Long before, we will notice the consequences. On the one hand, the Sun will get brighter and warmer. On the other hand, as the Sun shrinks and becomes less heavy, its gravitational pull on the Earth will loosen. Consequently, the orbit of our planet and all other planets in the solar system will widen.
Okay, so an earthly year will be several weeks longer. But don't mistake, there's a downside here. It will get colder. And not just a little bit. Within `only' several billions of years, Earth will become an icy, permafrost planet, where it will be hard to survive.
Well, we're still lucky, really. When the Sun eventually runs out of hydrogen, the nuclear reactions inside the Sun's core will stop. There will be no explosive force pushing outwards from the heart of the Sun anymore. The Sun will collapse, pressed together by its own gravity.
Subsequently, temperatures inside the Sun will rise even more. And, lucky we, there will be another nuclear reaction sparking off. The Sun will start fusing helium into carbon and hydrogen this time. KABOOM! This will prevent the Sun from collapsing any further. Finally, we will have warmth again.
But wait, we're in trouble. A nuclear power plant that runs on helium gives off a hell of a lot more energy and heat than one run on hydrogen. The new, immense power of the Sun's core will literally blow up the Sun. The Sun will grow, eating up several planets: first Mercury, then Venus. And next on the menu, yes, Earth.
The absorbing 1961 movie The Day The Earth Caught Fire gives a pretty good picture of what it will be like. Sure, it will become quite hot. Rivers will evaporate, causing dense, hot fogs. The polar ice will melt, causing oceans to rise and entire countries to flood. But then, the sea will evaporate as well. Long before the solar surface reaches our planet, we will simply be barbecued to death. Sadly, there is no happy ending. Eventually, Earth will be swallowed by the growing Sun. Our planet will burn up in its ultra hot outer layers.
Of course, we still have some 5,000 million years to come up with a solution for this nasty problem. For one thing, we might evacuate, or even find a way to move our entire planet away from the Sun. But even then, it's highly unlikely we will enjoy the Sun as much as we once did. Since the Sun has expanded so much, its outer parts will cool down. The Sun's surface will become cool, deep red. It will be a Red Giant -- `giant' being just the right name for an object that just ate up our planet.
So there we are in our spaceship or wherever we are, glancing back at our red giant Sun. Will that be it? No, it won't. Even the helium-into-carbon reaction doesn't last forever. Eventually, after another 100 million years or so, the Sun runs out of helium as well. The nuclear reactions will stop again, and gravity will take over once more. The Sun's core will collapse further.
Red Giant: cooler than the Sun, and much, much bigger
But this time, a dramatic change will occur. The Sun simply won't have enough gravitational strength to hold itself together anymore. The Sun's outer layers will be pushed off into space. In other words: the Sun will explode.
There will be a big nebula of super hot solar gas, flinging off in all directions. A beautiful sight, but not for us poor things. For many millions of years in a row, it will be like we're on the grill of a barbecue once more -- spaceship or no spaceship. And there will be radiation. Lots of it.
Okay, so we decide to keep it cool and move our spaceship further away from the dying Sun.
Still, even that won't be it. After the solar gasses and all the radiation have passed by, we will find that our vexed Sun has become a White Dwarf: a tiny, insignificant dot in the sky, still hot, but since there's no longer any nuclear reactions going on inside, cooling down fast.
Should we move our spaceship back to the Sun to catch some warmth? Well, we'd better not. For one thing, the gravity of our deceased Sun will be way too big to cope with. White dwarfs are incredibly dense. Although our ex-Sun will only have the size of the Earth, it will still have the mass of a star. A cubic centimeter may weigh several tons. So, by the time we'd reach a distance where it's warm and comfortable, our spaceship would simply crash into it.
And, oh well, what's the point in visiting White Dwarfs anyway? In the end -- more millions of years later -- the Sun will be cooled down so much, it will no longer give off any warmth at all. It will be a dull, extinguished object called a Black Dwarf.
I'm gonna hide under the bed now.
"But wait, we're in trouble. A nuclear power plant that runs on helium gives off a hell of a lot more energy and heat than one run on hydrogen. The new, immense power of the Sun's core will literally blow up the Sun. The Sun will grow, eating up several planets: first Mercury, then Venus. And next on the menu, yes, Earth. "
Fusion of helium gives off less energy than fusion of hydrogen and needs a higher temperature to take place. The core temperature rises to where the helium fusion produces enough heat to keep the sun uncollapsed from gravitation. Helium runs out. Carbon is next. The fusions get more difficult due to the higher electric repulsion of two nuclei attempting fusion so the temperature must rise to overcome the potential barriers. The chain of fusions ends at iron, core temperatures are higher still. Without new nuclear energy release gravitational collapse takes over. Radiation pressure from the denser and more collapsed core drives the surface expansion into a red giant.
Simplistically put, without a need for dollars with which to buy oil, Central Banks that hold huge dollar reserves virtually for only this reason, will dump their American currency. An unavoidable consequence would be a 40% drop - at least - in the value of the Dollar.
Hold on here,
Wait just a darn minute
Where is the 'now is the time to buy gold' bunch?
Post 11.
but but... who will be left to operate the chair lifts at Aspens posh ski resorts for the Euro-wealthy weenies?
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