Posted on 08/27/2005 12:43:32 PM PDT by DoctorZIn
Alan Peters: The name “Alan Peters” is a nom de plume for a writer who was for many years involved in intelligence and security matters in Iran. He had significant access inside Iran at high levels during the rule of the Shah, until early 1979.The news item below hidden among so many other stories, fails to call enough attention to perhaps the very worst that could happen seemingly to be about to happen.
Oil might soon no longer be linked to the US Dollar and move to the Euro.
As many of you know, a primary "oil" consideration for going to war in Iraq was to try to prevent this happening. Not - as the Cindy Sheehans or liberal Democrats with kitchen table knowledge of world politics and economy trumpeted - to put money into the pockets of Bush's cronies or Halliburton. To protect tens of millions of Americans from internal disaster within our own shores.
If the trend from the Dollar to the Euro happens too abruptly, we in the USA can look to having some 200 MILLION Americans starving in the streets within a short time frame. No exaggeration! Do the math! <
And unlike the Great Depression of the 1920's there will be nobody, nor any organization capable of setting up soup kitchensfor them. Even slow transition, as it appears to be evolving, will almost certainly turn us economically into an insular fifth world country with inflation somewhere along the lines of Argentina. Central Banks of our friendliest nations will be unable to absorb the dollars flooding the market without buyers, to maintain a value for our currency - which they no longer need anyway.
Simplistically put, without a need for dollars with which to buy oil, Central Banks that hold huge dollar reserves virtually for only this reason, will dump their American currency. An unavoidable consequence would be a 40% drop - at least - in the value of the Dollar.
The USA could then no longer afford, nor be able to service our national debt. Do the math with this parameter, too.
All investors and credit holders would pull out of the USA market - including from Wall Street and American industries. Americans could no longer afford to buy things, so have zero market value for investors.
The price of oil for the USA would be more expensive than ever since the "dollar tax" mentioned in the article below would be reversed and America would have to pay a "Euro conversion Tax" to import oil. The cost of everything in America would spiral upward similar to what happened in Germany after World War II, where you needed a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread!
Today, instead of Adolf Hitler, read Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejat, the new President of Iran and history repeating itself.
Note: the huge resistance of France and Germany to removing Saddam Hussein, apart from the oil for food corruption, was in the short sighted hope of encouraging this transition. Iraq was already planning to unlink oil prices from the Dollar to the Euro. Russia, with huge oil reserves of its own, was more than happy to be complicit in the extra revenue from this change and some oil producing countries had already begun selling some of their capacity in Euros.
All this began on the Clinton administration watch but the time frame was such that he would be out of office by the time it hit, so he refused to deal with it. When oil-savvy Bush and Cheney took over, they saw the disaster on the horizon and took steps - no matter how unpopular - to try to deal with it. The most critical challenge was to be able to dissuade all the other OPEC countries from dropping the Dollar and adopting the Euro.
Iraq has been a warning shot across their bows - but Iran has now tilted the playing field in the opposite direction, adding nuclear weaponry as a potential enforcement threat of their plans to destabilize the USA economy (a constant dream of Al-Qaeda, too) without caring, considering their iron fist control of their own population, that a domino effect would ensue and the rest of the world economy could easily collapse.
Holding huge oil and gas reserves with which to barter, (money could become almost worthless) Iran stands to come out smelling of roses as the world crashes. Plus nuclear energy established inside the country would reduce their own dependence on fossil fuels and make them even more powerful. Possibly along with China and India, reaching superpower status.
How sad, in the face of real challenges, that the Cindy Sheehans, the almost abjectly ignorant or self-satisfied politicians in both parties, can only think within their tiny mental boxes and attack the Bush administration for selfish, local, kitchen table level reasons, when we are facing an all obliterating, global, economical Tsunami which jeopardizes our very existence and survival.
I may be off in the urgency of time frames I posit but not in the inevitable overall direction in which we hurtle to disaster- unless we do something about it. That something requires lethal action toward Iran without thought of liberal or European hand-wringing.
The duty and responsibility of the President of the United States is to protect his nation, his people and ensure their survival and well-being. Inactivity against the Iranian Hitler situation will only result in more millions of Americans dying or in distress than there a Iranians in Iran. Pick a side in this equation based on logic, not "in a perfect world" scenario that Ahmadi-Nejat openly scoffs at and denigrates as Western weakness. For now he is right, we are.
Alan Peters
Orange County, CaliforniaDoctorZin:
Would any of our readers who are economists or commodity experts want to respond to this? I would love to hear from you.
- General Paul Vallely, Executive Intelligence Review reported that he knew that Osama bin Laden was in Iran, and that Iran already has nuclear weapons. A Must Read!
- Toni Straka, Speaking Freely, Asia Times asked: Could the proposed Iranian oil bourse (IOB) become the catalyst for a significant blow to the influential position the US dollar enjoys?
- Francois Murphy, Reuters reported that Iran's top nuclear negotiator is to meet the head of the U.N. atomic watchdog on Friday.
- Tom Valasek, The Wall Street Journal thinks the one bright spot in the EU3 negotiations with Iran is: Europe and the U.S. rediscovered some of their old unity.
- Radio Free Europe reported that Iran said it sees no justification in continuing nuclear negotiations exclusively with Britain, France, and Germany.
- Nasser Karimi, The Miami Herald published Europe's response to Iran's proposal of expanding the number of nations involved with their negotiations.
- Middle East Newsline reported Britain donated armored vests to Iran's security forces.
- Reuters reported that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad convened his depleted team of ministers for their first meeting on Thursday after suffering the ignominy of seeing parliament rejects four of his cabinet picks.
- Amnesty International is calling on the Iranian authorities to prevent the execution of two teenagers in Iran.
- Amnesty International called for urgent action in the case of Iranian dissident Hojjatoleslam Ezimi Qedim, out of fear for safety/fear of torture or ill-treatment.
- Kamal Nazer Yasin, Eurasianet reported that Iranian President Mahmood Ahmadinejad’s cabinet selections indicate that Iran’s leadership is preparing for domestic challenges and a possible confrontation with the West.
- SMCCDI reported that several militiamen and armed individuals have died in a clash which happened near the northwestern City of Mian-do-Ab.
- Rooz Online reported that Ali Larijani, the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said: The US strategy today is to hold a stick high and force weaker states to commit suicide.
- Dow Jones Newswires reported that Iran appointed a new chief for the air force component of the country's elite Revolutionary Guards Thursday. Gen. Alireza Zahedi.
- Sean Penn, The San Francisco Chronicle, Day Four of his Five part series. Sean attends a demonstration in Tehran.
- The Christian Science Monitor reported that we are at a pivotal moment for 'axis of evil.'
- Islamic Republic News Agency reported that the Iran's Majlis deputies Wednesday gave votes of confidence to 17 ministers proposed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. See list.
- And finally, another Rooz Online Cartoon of Ahmadinejad.
To read today’s thread click here.
Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!
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There was talk in the mid 90's of switching from the Dollar to the Euro, that is a fact.
Oil is traded in England, I forgot the town, the main body of oil trading, and right now, due to the influence of England and their reluctance to surrender to the EU their sovereignty, that is holding this all back.
BUT, if this is ever changed....
If it happened, though, Europe stands to gain all the more.
Right now, the Euro is valued higher than the dollar, always did.
With the cost of oil being traded in Euros and not dollars, that means that our money loses face value becauseit is no longer needed to buy oil with.
That would make the Euro the strongest currency in the world, and our national influence reduced to that of a military mercenary.
China is taking over manufacturing jobs, imagine what would happen if the value of the dollar plummted, how much more quicker would manufacturing leave the US just to keep making a profit on sales?
Maybe, but think of this:
How do countries invest? They buy bonds in other governments, right?
Many countries invest in the US, right? They have corporate headquarters here, right? Foreign owned, but located here, right?
All that money they invested in AMERICAN dollars just went down the drain. If the value of the dollar went down, then the return on their investments goes down.
What happens when a stock goes down in price? People sell, right?
Those govt bonds that other countries invested in just lost 50% of their value, do you think they will keep them or sell when they can?
How will we pay of BILLIONS of dollars in govt bonds? They will print money.
How do you pay for money you print? You cant. It is a false float.
Also, when foreign goods raise in price, our own buying power drops. It will mean a slow return to the US of some jobs that already left overseas, but, too many companies sent their machines overseas to make goods, not just ideas.
Also, the buying up of dollars that are rapidly plummeting in value is a lose/lose situation. It would be like buying up Confederate dollars in 1864...
Doubtful this would happen. There would be a better chance of the U.S. using nuclear blackmail to stay afloat.
GeneralBob, check this news out. I'm concerned.
Thanks, DoctorZin. I'm still reading.
Judging by the adamant way in which Russia rejected the referral of Iran to the Security Council last week, how China is hesitant to do so, and how wishwashy India is being, I'd say that they're all thinking long term regarding Iran, this oil bourse, and the standing of the US dollar, which is against the ropes.
China, in some ways, might be tacitly *begging* the US to attack Iran just so China would have a chance to 'annex' Taiwan once and for all.
Everything pivots on Iran, where the US/UK/Israel are essentially on one side, and the rest of the world is on the other.
Thus the stakes do not ultimately bother neocons. As did Hitler by invading Poland, the neocons will also "go for broke" and bet the house by attacking Iran, and any power that backs it.
"In my life, I have always gone for broke." - Hitler to Goebbels, after being warned against invading Poland by his own army generals.
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