Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

What about these reporters headed to downtown NOLA for to cover the storm?

They are planning to be plucked from a high rise rooftop via chopper after the storm.

[NautiNurse]

Hey there--ltns

[Types_with_Fist]

They are so used to covering Florida Hurricanes. They obviously have no clue whatsoever what they are playing with.

[janetjanet998]

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2005
reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft... as well as the Key West WSR-88D...show that Katrina is still in a concentric eyewall cycle with the inner eyewall 9 N mi wide and the outer 45-50 N mi wide. The central pressure has risen as high as 950 mb...with the latest central pressure at 945 mb. The aircraft have found flight-level winds as high as 119 kt at 8000 ft in the outer eyewall...although measurements from the NOAA stepped frequency microwave radiometer suggest the surface winds in this area are still less than 100 kt. The initial intensity remains at 100 kt for this advisory. The initial motion remains 275/6. Katrina is south of a deep-layer ridge over the northern Gulf Coast. This ridge is forecast to weaken as a strong deep-layer trough develops over the central United States...and a new deep-layer ridge forms over the Florida Peninsula and the adjacent Atlantic. This pattern change should cause Katrina to turn northward during the next 72 hr and make landfall over the northern Gulf Coast. Track guidance remains in agreement with this scenario...although the GFS and GFDL have led an overall shift to the west toward southeast Louisiana. This
shift is not unanimous...however...as the UKMET has shifted to the east of its previous track. The new track is nudged just a little to the west of the previous track...along the west edge of the main cluster of guidance for the firs 24-36 hr and down the middle of that cluster thereafter. The track calls for landfall in southeast Louisiana in a little under 48 hr.
Katrina should strengthen as it comes out of the concentric eyewall cycle. The GFDL is now calling for a peak intensity of 131 kt... while the SHIPS model is calling for 130 kt and the FSU superensemble 128 kt. The intensity forecast will call for strengthening to 125 kt at landfall...and there remains a chance that Katrina could become a category five hurricane before landfall. There remains the possibility of another concentric eyewall cycle before landfall...which could throw off the intensity forecast a bit. The new forecast track and wind radii require a Hurricane Watch for and expanded portions of the northern Gulf Coast at this time. Hurricane warnings will likely be required later tonight for parts of the watch area. Forecaster Beven

[gov_bean_ counter]

Yeh, imagine a 130 pound rat (Hillary).

How did you manage to only weigh her a$$?

[Tarheel]

To say nothing about the fact that many of them w/b losing their lives.

[mwp99]

WDSU (New Orleans NBC) had a reporter outside the Saints practice facility telling us what their 3 options were for next weekend's preseason game in Oakland.

Like that matters.

[Interesting Times]

Hey there--ltns

Hey yourself, NN.

Ominous storm you have here...

[NautiNurse]

I'll tell you about my adventure getting home Thurs night one of these days...

[rwfromkansas]

landfall has been pushed later it looks like

[Dog Gone]

I realized that. I was mainly making that comment for the thread and because I brought it up in the first place.

I am on the edge of despair right now. I think we're going to see the destruction of a major American city in the next couple of days, along with irreplaceable historical sites. It will never be the same.

It's heartbreaking.

[LibSnubber]

"They are so used to covering Florida Hurricanes. They obviously have no clue whatsoever what they are playing with."

So true. It's not worth their lives.

[SE Mom]

Just got an e-mail from my friend- he is the director of the Southeastern VA hospitals- he just flew into NO to start the evac of all the VA hospitals in BR and NO....said it looks like it is going to be B A D...

[CajunConservative]

They could play in Tiger Stadium. They may get their new stadium after all.

[rwfromkansas]

As a reporter, I would be willing to almost anywhere, even in a hurricane.

But, not NO. If it got me fired, so be it.

[janetjanet998]

that 2pm was over new orleans..it will make make landfall or swampfall a few hours earlier

[NautiNurse]

he just flew into NO to start the evac of all the VA hospitals in BR and NO

BR too--whoa--that's a really tall order.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Fox News Channel: "The poor are effected hard, who can't afford a hotel room, which by the way are booked solid for 6 miles outside of New Orleans..."

More FNC quality at work. And of course no one has ever survived living out of their car for a couple of days...

[Types_with_Fist]

They are saying Cat4 and possibly Cat5 at landfall and still New Orleans is the target. The destruction of a major city is exactly what is possible if the city gets a direct hit. Most people just don't realize New Orleans' disposition and vulnerability.

Are you from the area too?

[trillabodilla]

link to map showing contra-flow of traffic exiting New Orleans beginning at 4:00 p.m. local time (now)

http://www.lsp.org/contraflowmap1.html