Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[spectre]

Neither..good point.

Crawdad, did your hometown ever recover??

sw

[AntiGuv]

I know that the latest official forecast still has Katrina passing directly over New Orleans, but haven't the computer models now clearly shifted to the east? Isn't it probable that the next forecast will predict landfall on the Mississippi-Alabama border?

[NautiNurse]

haven't the computer models now clearly shifted to the east?

Yes, and that is why everyone in the northern GOM should be watching this storm closely.

[Dog Gone]

I've messed with a bunch of computer simulations for New Orleans based on storm angles and intensity. Horrifying is too mild a word, but I don't have another one handy.

Here's what NOAA thinks will be the situation at St. Louis Cathedral in New Orleans after a Category 4 storm.

You can watch the Quicktime movie of it here

Some of the models suggest far worse than that.

[LA Woman3]

St. Charles Parish info....
If you need transportation out of the parish, call 985-383-5050. There will be buses leaving today at 5:00 PM.

[janetjanet998]

if you look at the map of GOM depth the deepest water is just south of LA and goes up to almost to the coast..versus the shallow shelf water in the NE gulf..
opal and lilly were both OCT storms with SST much lower and lots of cool/dry air around..no sign on that here in late aug..
SST temps are at their seasonal peak and 2-4 degrees above that even
with the great outflow....insanely warm SST of 88-91F..deep water..no dry air..and weak shear...no reason for this thing to weaken...best hope will be an eye wall replacement cycle at landfall
plus look at the size!!!
NO will start to feel the impact of this way before landfall

[NautiNurse]

Thank you very much for the local updates.

[Termite_Commander]

Does anybody here know any nifty voodoo chants we can use to make this storm die?

[Tuxedo]

I have an ASTM meeting to go to in NO in December.... think they'd get cleaned up by then? Wow.... it may finally happen...

[Crawdad]

It recovered and then flooded again in 1995, I believe. The Army Corps of Engineers just finished re-doing the levee last year. Government.

[silentknight]

Wright Weather

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/forumdisplay.php?s=&forumid=6

[silentknight]

Does anyone have any streaming television stations that WORK from New Orl?

[b4its2late]

Wow. You've got a lot of good stuff on this. Thanks for the links. Fortunately, in NY, I won't have to worry about her unless it's in the form of alot of rain next week.

[NautiNurse]

The NHC track still has a cone of uncertainty covering four states. The 11AM update removed the extreme western portion of Louisiana from the cone.

[NautiNurse]

mhking provided the streaming links noted above with the caveat they would not all be working all the time until the storm moves closer to landfall. He also assured us he will provide additional links later today.

Meanwhile, if you find additional sites, please let me know, and I'll add them to the next thread.

[sheikdetailfeather]

My nephew told me that the further north a hurricane goes the more east it wants to go. It is possible that it could shift east but the other influencing factors are causing it to go west. I have also heard that when a hurricane gets that big, it can overwhelm any other influences and goes where is wants to.

[spectre]

OMG. My thoughts are with the people in New Orleans. There is no way they are going to get everyone out, for many reasons.

People won't all leave..i.e, the homeless sleeping in alleyways , because I read that the French Quarter will cease to exist.

I hate being an alarmist, but OTOH, we have to face the facts.

sw

[Wilhelm Tell]

I'm posting this EVACUATION ROUTE info that Ellesu had posted earlier. I don't think this can be repeated too many times. This is a powerful hurricane and it will affect a wide area. Now is the time to get out.

http://www.lsp.org/lcadeg.html

[LA Woman3]

Thank you. They mentioned on the radio they are waiting to start the contraflow in New Orleans so that the lower parishes can get out first.

[StAnDeliver]

NOAA LA/MS Coastal Marine Data (buoy soundings)

The current water temp at Grand Isle is 88.3F.