Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[jslade]

I am about 20 miles north of Orlando

So am I. We're having beautiful weather today. Don't ask about last year.

[NautiNurse]

Welcome back! Hope you are rested. :o)

[AnAmericanMother]

They have delayed the presser by two hours...oh my goodness.

There is no time! She has got to fish or cut bait . . . refusing to decide is also a decision --

If I lived in NO, I would not be waiting for Nanny Government to tell me what to do. We would have the hurricane emergency kit, the kids, the pets, and the important papers already in the truck, and we would be out of there.

Some things are NOT worth fooling around with.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 17
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on August 27, 2005

 
reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that the central pressure of Katrina dropped to 940 mb at 0932z. 
Since then...the hurricane has started a concentric eyewall
cycle...with a filling of the eye and warming of the cloud tops in
satellite imagery.  The initial intensity remains at 100 kt based
mainly on satellite intensity estimates of 102 kt from TAFB and
AFWA...and 115 kt from SAB.  It should be noted that the maximum
flight-level winds reported by aircraft so far are 106 kt...which
are lower than would normally be expected for a 940 mb hurricane.

The initial motion is now 275/6.  Katrina is south of a deep-layer
ridge over the northern Gulf Coast.  This ridge is forecast to
weaken as a strong deep-layer trough develops over the central
United States...and a new deep-layer ridge forms over the Florida
Peninsula and the adjacent Atlantic.  This pattern change should
cause Katrina to turn northward during the next 72 hr and make
landfall over the northern Gulf Coast.  All track guidance agrees
on this scenario...although there remains some spread...
particularly from the NOGAPS and GFDN models which call for
landfall near Morgan City and Intracoastal City Louisiana
respectively.  The other guidance is clustered with landfall
between Grand Isle Louisiana and Pensacola Florida.  The official
forecast remains close to the model consensus...calling for
landfall in southeastern Louisiana in 48-60 hr.  The new track is
basically an update of the previous package.

 
Katrina should strengthen slowly for the first 12 hr or so as the
concentric eyewall completes and some residual northerly shear
affects the storm.  After that...it should strengthen in a light
shear environment over very warm water.  The intensity forecast
calls for the hurricane to reach 125 kt in 48 hr as a compromise
between the 120 kt GFDL...the 126 kt GFDN...the 127 kt SHIPS...and
the 132 kt FSU superensemble models.  However...it is not out of
the question that Katrina could reach category 5 status at some
point before landfall.  There is a possibility that southerly or
southwesterly shear could affect Katrina starting at 48 hr...and as
always happens in hurricane of this intensity additional concentric
eyewall cycles could occur.

 
The new forecast track and wind radii require a Hurricane Watch for
portions of southeastern Louisiana at this time...including
metropolitan New Orleans.  This watch will likely need to be
extended along the coast later today or tonight.

 
Forecaster Beven

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      27/1500z 24.5n  85.0w   100 kt
 12hr VT     28/0000z 24.6n  86.0w   105 kt
 24hr VT     28/1200z 25.3n  87.6w   115 kt
 36hr VT     29/0000z 26.7n  89.0w   120 kt
 48hr VT     29/1200z 28.6n  89.9w   125 kt
 72hr VT     30/1200z 33.0n  89.5w    60 kt...inland
 96hr VT     31/1200z 37.5n  86.0w    30 kt...inland
120hr VT     01/1200z 41.5n  80.0w    25 kt...extratropical

[LA Woman3]

I thought Monday as well.

[janetjanet998]

yeah..but it will be moving due north and "with the shear"...so the relitive shear may be low still
also the water gets warmer as you near the coast...camille bombed at when it hit the coast

[spectre]

I was reading up on potential a New Orleans disaster Hurricane results..just a snippet:

Maestri says imagine what happens if a huge storm hits just to the east of the city.

"The hurricane is spinning counter-clockwise, it's now got a wall of water in front of it some 30 to 40 feet high, as it approaches the levees that surround the city, it tops those levees," describes Maestri.

"The water comes over the top - and first the communities on the west side of the Mississippi river go under. Now Lake Ponchetrain— which is on the eastern side of the community—now that water from Lake Ponchetrain is now pushed on the population that is fleeing from the western side, and everybody's caught in the middle. The bowl now completely fills and we've got the entire community under water, some 20 to 30 feet under water."

Remember all those levees that the U.S. Army built around New Orleans, to hold smaller floods out of the bowl? Maestri says now those levees would doom the city, because they'll trap the water in.

"It's going to look like a massive shipwreck," says Maestri. "Everything that the water has carried in is going to be there. It's going to have to be cleaned out— alligators, moccasins and god knows what that lives in the surrounding swamps, has now been flushed -literally—into the metropolitan area. And they can't get out, because they're inside the bowl now.

No water to drink, no water to use for sanitation purposes. All of the sanitation plants are under water and of course, the material is floating free in the community.

The petrochemicals that are produced up and down the Mississippi river—much of that has floated into this bowl... The biggest toxic waste dump in the world now is the city of New Orleans because of what has happened."

(It's worse than I could have ever imagined)..sw

[Coldwater Creek]

I was just wondering the same myself. Why would anyone wait for the government to tell you to leave. In this day and age with all of the sophisticated information tools that we have access to, we should be able to decide for ourselves.

[NautiNurse]

NHC track has Katrina at the LA coast 7AM Monday.

[dennis1x]

camille bombed at when it hit the coast

true..but there is a long list of recent storms that have undergone significant, and somewhat unexplained, weakening in this area....opal..lily...ivan...dennis.... some studies have pointed to a lower heat content near the coast...very warm at the surface, but not deep.

[LA Woman3]

Blanco didn't sound too confident ,did she?

[jslade]

If not NO, then who???????

Somebody needs to bribe blam to turn on his magnet. Then get the hell outta Dodge.

[rang1995]

wherever it lands now expect this to play havoc on OIL and GAS prices

http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/lsesale/Visual1.pdf

[NautiNurse]

there is a long list of recent storms that have undergone significant, and somewhat unexplained, weakening in this area

Agree--Ivan and Dennis being the two most vivid memories.

[Dog Gone]

It's really hard to tell. Katrina can't get any further west than Vermillion Bay, but she could go as far east as Mobile. Until she starts a northwest turn it's really hard to plot a trajectory.

I think she'll be moving NE at landfall which makes it even harder to pinpoint, because any change in speed moves the target.

[Coldwater Creek]

No!!!!! Our kids are on the east side of Mobile. It is so selfish to want someone else's familiy to get it instead of mine. Forgive me.

[janetjanet998]

lets say mid cat 4 at landfall which would you rather have...
A. if it hits just east of the city they will be in the weaker side so lets say 120 winds..but get the massive surge flooding
B. if it goes just west the areas south(or the west bank) of the MS river will get the surge/ tidal flooding...and the city will be in the east part of the eye with CAT 4 winds
and in both cases you have flooding from rain

[Crawdad]

That's exactly what happened to my home town of Elba, AL back in 1990. Flooding from heavy rains broke the levee, which surrounds the entire town, on the north side of town and the place filled up like a bowl of cereal.

[NautiNurse]

Check out this post from the last thread. About 1/3 of oil rigs may be affected.

[janetjanet998]

both moved into the NE gulf where the warm water is much shallow and the waves brought up cooler water..plus the sea surface temps weren;t 91 degrees just off shore(more like 84)
there has never been a Cat 4/5 hit where at the FL panhadle becuase of the shallow water