Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Ellesu]

Thanks, I agree with Jeff. I hope they do not wait too late to start contraflow.

[numberonepal]

Nurses are good for that...

It's an honor to take it from a master.

[chemicalman]

Blanco sounds like a dense person. How she got into the position she's in, I have no idea.

[Ellesu]

Between noon and 2pm, Blanco will hold press conference with NO Mayor Nagin.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Thank you mam, may I have another...

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane watch in effect from Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River.

[NautiNurse]

They have delayed the presser by two hours...oh my goodness.

[Dog Gone]

Not sure. I just sat down at the computer. Trying to catch up on this thread and grab a bunch of information.

I'll say this, though. I have a really bad feeling about what's happening. The models are in alignment and when that occurs, the outcome is rarely much different.

It's not as if there's a chance New Orleans will be hit with a major hurricane. It's more like there's a chance it won't.

[LibSnubber]

"Blanco sounds like a dense person. How she got into the position she's in, I have no idea."

She and her husband are awful people. Even her hometown of Lafayette didn't vote for her. The people of New Orleans basically put her in office from what I remember.

[NautiNurse]

It's not as if there's a chance New Orleans will be hit with a major hurricane. It's more like there's a chance it won't.

Well said.

[Ellesu]

Kathleen Blabineaux Blank Check is as dumb as a post. JMO. The voters here never cease to amaze me.

[Coldwater Creek]

If not NO, then who???????

[Ellesu]

Radio said between noon and 2pm so don't know when. Blanco is slooooow.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 17
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on August 27, 2005

...Category three Katrina moving westward in the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico...expected to turn west-northwestward and strengthen...

 
at 10 am CDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of
the Pearl River...including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Ponchartrain.  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for other portions of the
northern Gulf Coast later today or tonight.  Interests in this area
should monitor the progress of Katrina.

 
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning in the Florida
Keys is discontinued from Key West eastward.  A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 24.5 north...longitude  85.0 west or about  405
miles... 655 km...southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
and about  200 miles... 325 km...west of Key West Florida.

 
Katrina is moving toward the west near  7 mph...11 km/hr.  A gradual
turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Katrina is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Katrina could become a category four hurricane.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  40 miles... 65 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.  The automated station at the Dry Tortugas
recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph with a gust to 55 mph.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  940 mb...27.76 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding along the southwestern coast of Florida should
subside today.

Katrina is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches
over western Cuba...and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected over
the Yucatan Peninsula.  Rainfall from Katrina should begin to push
into the central Gulf Coast late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

 
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...24.5 N... 85.0 W.  Movement
toward...west near  7 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...115 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 940 mb.

 

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

[janetjanet998]

new data/discusiion call for a CAT 5 possiblity..this just in
Katrina should strengthen slowly for the first 12 hr or so as the concentric eyewall completes and some residual northerly shear affects the storm. After that...it should strengthen in a light shear environment over very warm water. The intensity forecast calls for the hurricane to reach 125 kt in 48 hr as a compromise between the 120 kt GFDL...the 126 kt GFDN...the 127 kt SHIPS...and the 132 kt FSU superensemble models. However...it is not out of the question that Katrina could reach category 5 status at some point before landfall. There is a possibility that southerly or southwesterly shear could affect Katrina starting at 48 hr...and as always happens in hurricane of this intensity additional concentric eyewall cycles could occur.

[Coldwater Creek]

Thanks!!!!!!

[Rebelbase]

;-)

[dennis1x]

hopefully with the southerly shear forecast, and the history of weakening of north gulf coast storms just prior to landfall.....there is some hope....although she will peak out somewhere close to land and it will be a scary time.

[FarmerW]

Is it just me or does it seem to others that the MSM is moving really slowly on this? I just heard on the radio news about Fl. panhandle getting hit again.

[janetjanet998]

we are now only 54-58 hours from NO....take 2 hour off that at noon..its takes 60-72 hours to get everyone out....
its a large storms and rain and eind will get there way before landfall too
bottom line..they should have issued voluntary evac. last night so at least some would leave