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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Thanks, I agree with Jeff. I hope they do not wait too late to start contraflow.
It's an honor to take it from a master.
Blanco sounds like a dense person. How she got into the position she's in, I have no idea.
Between noon and 2pm, Blanco will hold press conference with NO Mayor Nagin.
Hurricane watch in effect from Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River.
They have delayed the presser by two hours...oh my goodness.
I'll say this, though. I have a really bad feeling about what's happening. The models are in alignment and when that occurs, the outcome is rarely much different.
It's not as if there's a chance New Orleans will be hit with a major hurricane. It's more like there's a chance it won't.
"Blanco sounds like a dense person. How she got into the position she's in, I have no idea."
She and her husband are awful people. Even her hometown of Lafayette didn't vote for her. The people of New Orleans basically put her in office from what I remember.
Well said.
Kathleen Blabineaux Blank Check is as dumb as a post. JMO. The voters here never cease to amaze me.
If not NO, then who???????
Radio said between noon and 2pm so don't know when. Blanco is slooooow.
...Category three Katrina moving westward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...expected to turn west-northwestward and strengthen...
at 10 am CDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River...including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for other portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today or tonight. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Katrina.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning in the Florida Keys is discontinued from Key West eastward. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located near latitude 24.5 north...longitude 85.0 west or about 405 miles... 655 km...southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 200 miles... 325 km...west of Key West Florida.
Katrina is moving toward the west near 7 mph...11 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher gusts. Katrina is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and Katrina could become a category four hurricane.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles... 65 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km. The automated station at the Dry Tortugas recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph with a gust to 55 mph.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb...27.76 inches.
Storm surge flooding along the southwestern coast of Florida should subside today.
Katrina is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over western Cuba...and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected over the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall from Katrina should begin to push into the central Gulf Coast late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...24.5 N... 85.0 W. Movement toward...west near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 940 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Beven
Thanks!!!!!!
;-)
hopefully with the southerly shear forecast, and the history of weakening of north gulf coast storms just prior to landfall.....there is some hope....although she will peak out somewhere close to land and it will be a scary time.
Is it just me or does it seem to others that the MSM is moving really slowly on this? I just heard on the radio news about Fl. panhandle getting hit again.
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