[dennis1x]

camille bombed at when it hit the coast

true..but there is a long list of recent storms that have undergone significant, and somewhat unexplained, weakening in this area....opal..lily...ivan...dennis.... some studies have pointed to a lower heat content near the coast...very warm at the surface, but not deep.

[NautiNurse]

there is a long list of recent storms that have undergone significant, and somewhat unexplained, weakening in this area

Agree--Ivan and Dennis being the two most vivid memories.

[janetjanet998]

if you look at the map of GOM depth the deepest water is just south of LA and goes up to almost to the coast..versus the shallow shelf water in the NE gulf..
opal and lilly were both OCT storms with SST much lower and lots of cool/dry air around..no sign on that here in late aug..
SST temps are at their seasonal peak and 2-4 degrees above that even
with the great outflow....insanely warm SST of 88-91F..deep water..no dry air..and weak shear...no reason for this thing to weaken...best hope will be an eye wall replacement cycle at landfall
plus look at the size!!!
NO will start to feel the impact of this way before landfall