My nephew told me that the further north a hurricane goes the more east it wants to go. It is possible that it could shift east but the other influencing factors are causing it to go west. I have also heard that when a hurricane gets that big, it can overwhelm any other influences and goes where is wants to.
WARNING AMATEUR WEATHER FORECASTER says:
I believe it's the reverse as pertains to cause and effect. The simple fact is in almost every year since I've been living on the SE Gulf Coast the weather is so benign that there's little resistance to influence a hurricane to go one direction or another. Where I live, the window of time between mid August and Mid September is characterized by a pronounced absence of weather, just dead air. Any moron could correlate the fact there is nothing but stagnant water vapor hanging around the Gulf big unpredictable hurricanes will result.
Who knows where this sucker's going. I predict the weather service finally gets humbled on this one.
My understanding has been that a ridge of high pressure northwest of the storm is what has been keeping it from turning to the north, and that the whole forecast model depends on how fast it moves west. So far, it's been moving more slowly than predicted, which is why yesterday I mentioned the storm could very well end up further east than forecast although it took longer to swing north.
This is because the ultimate trough that the hurricane will follow northward would not move as far west. So, instead of a smooth arc toward the northwest, it'll track more of a west-then-north right angle.