New NHC map shows it heading right over Lake Pontchartrain, which is the doom day scenario for New Orleans. The lake will flood into New Orleans and put it several feet under water if it hits as a strong 3 or above.
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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
They start with the Greek alphabet....Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, etc.
00
Wtnt42 knhc 270900
Tcdat2
Hurricane katrina discussion number 16
Nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
5 am edt sat aug 27 2005
The eye has become clearly discernible during the past few hours in
Goes-12 infrared imagery. Aircraft reconnaissance indicates the
Minimum central pressure is falling... Most recently measured at
945 mb. While such a low pressure is typical of some category four
Hurricanes... The maximum 700 mb flight level winds have not yet
Exceeded 104 kt which corresponds to about 95 kt at the surface.
Given the falling pressure... And dvorak intensity estimates
Ranging from 100 to 115 kt... The advisory intensity will be
Increased to 100 kt... Making katrina a category three hurricane.
The aircraft data and a few surface observations also indicate that
Katrina has grown in size... Which perhaps explains why the maximum
Winds have not yet caught up to the central pressure. The initial
And forecast wind radii have been expanded accordingly.
Wsr-88d radar imagery from key west... And the series of aircraft
Fixes... Indicate that katrina is wobbling about a heading just
South of due west... So the long-anticipated turn to the west might
Be starting. The dynamical models all forecast a
West-northwestward motion to begin later today... Followed by a
Gradual turn toward the northwest and north during the next 2-3
Days as the ridge to the northwest of katrina eases westward and a
Weakness develops over the northern gulf. The dynamical model
Consensus forecast of the track through the gulf of mexico had
Shifted westward during the past 24 hours of forecast cycles. The
Latest consensus track is only slightly west of the previous... So
It is possible that the westward shifting of the models is ending.
The new official forecast is right on top of the consensus track
And a bit to the west of the previous advisory. Due to the
Decreasing spread in the models... The confidence in the forecast
Track is increasing.
Katrina is located within an atmospheric environment that seemingly
Cannot get much more conducive for strengthening... Primarily due
To a very large upper-level anticyclone over the entire gulf of
Mexico. Not surprisingly... Upper-level outflow from the hurricane
Continues to become more established. This weak wind shear
Environment is forecast by the dynamical models to persist for
About the next three days until an upper-level trough moves into
Texas from the west. Therefore shear could begin to increase over
The hurricane near the time it makes landfall on the
Northern gulf coast... But it seems that will be too late to
Prevent katrina from maintaining major hurricane status at
Landfall. The ships guidance now shows strengthening to 123 kt...
And the official forecast now peaks at 120 kt over the northern
Gulf within the next couple of days.
The 12-foot seas radii have been expanded based upon data from noaa
Buoy 42003 and on ship data.
Forecaster knabb
Forecast positions and max winds
Initial 27/0900z 24.4n 84.4w 100 kt
12hr vt 27/1800z 24.5n 85.4w 105 kt
24hr vt 28/0600z 25.0n 87.0w 115 kt
36hr vt 28/1800z 26.0n 88.7w 120 kt
48hr vt 29/0600z 27.4n 89.9w 120 kt
72hr vt 30/0600z 31.5n 90.0w 75 kt...inland
96hr vt 31/0600z 36.0n 87.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr vt 01/0600z 40.0n 82.0w 25 kt...extratropical
"KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE."
"SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS."
Fixin to leave out myself shortly, see ya there.
Center pressure supports category IV wind speed. That is scary too. Off to bed for me. Maybe it will die by the time I get up as the last Gulf Storm that looked scary did. I doubt it.
Say hello to another huge jump in gas prices.
cool, maybe the beard will get drowned in the storm surge and maybe mother nature will take care of some of the Gitmo jihadis...
Have a good night/morning - over & out.
They pull the first names of the Democrat Senators, then go through their congressmen.
Cantore's surfaced again. He's in Biloxi
New NHC map shows it heading right over Lake Pontchartrain, which is the doom day scenario for New Orleans. The lake will flood into New Orleans and put it several feet under water if it hits as a strong 3 or above.
Agree. According to the MSM as of this AM, it is the Florida panhandle that is at still at greatest risk. Yet the latest computer models on this thread are showing a near direct strike on New Orleans.
If the MSM are still reporting that Florida's panhandle is at greatest risk rather than New Orleans, then they are dangerously derelict.
This storm hasn't done much of anything expected to date
%%%%%%
Last Wednesday I told friends that Katrina was headed for Texas. I wonder if I should volunteer as a psychic meteorologist? LOL!
Good morning, NN and other FReepers.
I am in Louisiana and going this morning to stock up on water, batteries, etc.
JUST IN CASE!
We live just a little bit north of Baton Rouge.
nothing new.....
Good idea.
****
Justin Case
My daughter has a friend who had knee surgery a little over a year ago. She says it hurts when the weather is going to change. Her dad is a NASA meteorologist. I told her that her weather forecasts will probably be more accurate than his.(Not a knock on him, just a thought about how far humans still have to go in weather forecasting)
Jeepers. The Big Easy better break out the hurricane repellent. Can their pumps handle a Cat 3 or 4?
000
WTNT32 KNHC 271146
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005
...KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 180 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 940 MB...27.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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