Posted on 08/26/2005 8:03:22 PM PDT by janetjanet998
Therefore...the official forecast brings Katrina to 115 knots...or a category four on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The GFDL is more aggressive and calls for 124 knots and 922 mb. The FSU superensemble is even more aggressive bringing Katrina to 131 knots.
track info HERE
Exactly. Saturday into Sunday will be a big wake up call. The devastation to the rigs and refineries will be a double blow. I don't people realize the energy production in Southern LA. This could be quite devastating to the national economy. Let's pray it heads southwest into Mexico.
the models showing a big surge depend on the "perfect storm." It would have to move very slow just to the west of us to cause the worse damage. No doubt, it could be bad, time will tell. I am hopeful a miracle happens and it goes to an unpopulated area.
I have a newphew and a niece and their families in NO. I sure hope the city dodges this bullet again.
My house was built in 1901, so it's seen a few. I got faith. ( hey I'm a Saints fan, gotta have faith. That's all we got!) My brother works on the rigs but he's on his 2 weeks home right now. ( 2 weeks on, 2 weeks off) I'm sure if they haven't gotten them out yet, it will be in the morning.
From led-zeppelin.com:
When The Levee Breaks
(Bonham/Jones/Page/Plant/Memphis Minnie)
If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break, (X2)
When The Levee Breaks I'll have no place to stay.
Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan, (X2)
Got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home,
Oh, well, oh, well, oh, well.
Don't it make you feel bad
When you're tryin' to find your way home,
You don't know which way to go?
If you're goin' down South
They go no work to do,
If you don't know about Chicago.
Cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.
All last night sat on the levee and moaned, (X2)
Thinkin' about me baby and my happy home.
Going, going to Chicago... Going to Chicago... Sorry but I can't take you...
Going down... going down now... going down....
""then the death toll shall reach at least the HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS""
Rubbish
Chalmette is a huge refinery town. It's on the East side of New Orleans right down the river.
Recon shows pressure is falling VERY rapidly. 950 mb now. That would support a Cat 3 hurricane.
One model shows it going down to 917 mb. That would be an extremely dangerous hurricane.
More discussion about potential damage to New Orleans from Weather Underground here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=76&tstamp=200508&allcomments=1
We are going to have a strong cat 3 or possibly 4 storm tomorrow morning if this keeps up. It is already a 3 according to the lastest recon. 125 knot flight level winds is what I heard.
I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!!
Semper911, thanks for posting these links.
I see where Free Republic is mentioned on "00z hurricane models" thread at Wright Weather ;-)
Assessing the 00Z 27 Aug GFS run, it looks like New Orleans will get hit by 0800 29 Aug 05 w/70KTs sustained. By 2000 29 Aug 05, storm will be very tightly wrapped about 90 miles W of Hattiesburg w/40 Kts sustained (she'll be about 90 miles NW of Tupelo by 0800 Tue w/25Kts sustained). In this scenario, I'd expect this storm to be dropping tornados all over the place.
NGP seems to concurs with this, except landfall appears about 50 miles W of New Orleans (Morgan City, Lafeyette), and with about 55 KTs sustained and not as tightly wrapped (tornadoes shouldn't be as numerous).
they should be required to get underway and sail to calm waters before the hurricane is close enough to make landfall, if they do and by unfortunate accident are caught up in the storm, taxpayers pay, if they stay in port and the boats are made FUBAR by mother nature, then they are just SOL.
With the infrastructure improvements in New Orleans proper in the past 25-30 years, I wouldn't worry too much about the city itself--unless a "hand of God"type storm hit the city--and a lot more about the suburbs on the West bank (they are not as far below sea level as some areas of New Orleans, but have less protection from the waters breaking over the levee) as well as over in Kenner and Westwego, because they fall right along the Bonnet Carre Spillway which diverts flood waters and storm surge from the Mississippi river just northwest of New Orleans into Lake Ponchartrain (and because it's a salt water lake, killing much of the aquatic life in its path)..
My dad grew up in N.O. and told me about Betsy.
Hurricane betsy became a tropical depression over land, came out on the atlantic on the eastern seaboard and returned to cat 2 hurricane status and gave NYC trouble before fizzling out in the cold north atlantic.
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