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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: NautiNurse

Since I will be moving to Florida shortly, better get me on the Hurricane PING list.


381 posted on 08/26/2005 2:01:16 PM PDT by N. Theknow (Be a glowworm. A glowworm's never glum. How can you be grumpy when the sun shines out your bum?)
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To: Rebelbase
It's shifting for a western landfall


382 posted on 08/26/2005 2:02:26 PM PDT by Rebelbase ("Run Hillary Run" bumper stickers. Liberals place on rear bumper, conservatives put on front bumper)
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To: N. Theknow; Howlin; Gabz

Done


383 posted on 08/26/2005 2:03:00 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Rebelbase

That graph shows it has already made a turn, that has not happened, gonna go further west.


384 posted on 08/26/2005 2:05:08 PM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: Jrabbit

OK, I just dropped in for a visit. Why do you want this hurricane?


385 posted on 08/26/2005 2:05:12 PM PDT by ncpatriot
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To: highimpact

I predict a major panic-attack for the area sometime Sat.

I'll be leaving O'dark-30 Sunday with a full tank of gas, a full carton of cigarattes, and wearing sunglasses.


386 posted on 08/26/2005 2:05:23 PM PDT by baclava
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To: NautiNurse

This is a screenshot of the latest storm track from NOAA which is overlayed on the latest hi-res radar which is then overlayed on the Google Earth Sat map of the region. (1658 EDT).

387 posted on 08/26/2005 2:05:29 PM PDT by Spiff (Don't believe everything you think.)
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To: All; Rebelbase; Strategerist

most recent reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate the central pressure has dropped to 965 mb...but the
flight-level winds have only increased to 94 kt at 700 mb...which
is about an 85-kt surface wind. A 1701z dropsonde in the northeast
quadrant reported 85 kt surface winds. Therefore...the initial
intensity is held at 85 kt for this advisory...even though the
central pressure supports about 95-kt surface winds. The eyewall in
the northwest quadrant has remained open...probably due to dry air
entrainment...and this may partly explain the difference between
the observed winds and what the central pressure typically
supports.

The initial motion is west-southwestward...or 255 degress...at 07
kt. Katrina remains caught between the northeasterly flow on the
west side of an inverted trough over the western Caribbean Sea and
the northeasterly flow in the southeast quadrant of the subtropical
ridge located to the north and northwest of Katrina. Both the ridge
and trough are forecast to slowly weaken over the next 12-24 hours
...Which allow the hurricane to turn more westward...and most of
the NHC model guidance agrees on that scenario. After 24 hours...
the models are in general agreement on a shortwave trough currently
over the northern and Central Plains states to gradually dig
southeastward toward the central and western Gulf of Mexico and
erode the ridge...which allows Katrina to move northward by 72
hours. As a result...the models have shifted significantly westward
and are now in better agreement. This has resulted in the official
forecast track being shifted about 150 nmi west of the previous
track...on the east side of the guidance envelope. However...
projected landfall is still about 72 hours away...so further
modifications in the forecast track are possible.

Katrina is expected to be moving over the Gulf loop current after 36
hours...which when combined with decreasing vertical shear...should
allow the hurricane to reach category four status before landfall
occurs. This is consistent with the SHIPS and GFDL models...which
bring Katrina up to 118 kt. The FSU superensemble model is more
robust and brings Katrina up to 129 kt just before landfall.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/2100z 24.8n 82.9w 85 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 24.9n 83.9w 90 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 25.2n 85.1w 95 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 25.8n 86.4w 100 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 26.9n 87.7w 105 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 30.0n 88.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 35.0n 86.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 31/1800z 40.5n 79.0w 25 kt...dissipating inland


388 posted on 08/26/2005 2:05:50 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Diddle E. Squat; NautiNurse; dawn53; Gabz; All

Just got home and now watching the Weather Channel.

Tornado in Marathon, FL?

Still at 100 mph and hanging over the Keys.

Katrina expected to become a major hurricane.


389 posted on 08/26/2005 2:06:06 PM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: eastforker

Discussion is out...

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt2.html

...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE GULF LOOP CURRENT AFTER 36 HOURS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITHDECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH BRING KATRINA UP TO 118 KT. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS MORE ROBUST AND BRINGS KATRINA UP TO 129 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.</br>


390 posted on 08/26/2005 2:06:35 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist

I was surprised to see them up the landfall forecast to cat4. I mean, the conditions look darn good... but they are usually conservative.


391 posted on 08/26/2005 2:08:55 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Spiff

That's an awesome image. Afraid it's going to cause our dial-up FReeper friends to have seizures though. Please post link next time! :o)


392 posted on 08/26/2005 2:10:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: CTGOPPER

Didn't Bastardi claim that Dennis would hit New Orleans?


393 posted on 08/26/2005 2:11:22 PM PDT by Tall_Texan (Visit Club Gitmo - The World's Only Air-Conditioned Gulag.)
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To: ncpatriot

I just want her rain.....no wind or tornados. It is incredibly dry here.....and hot and miserable


394 posted on 08/26/2005 2:11:35 PM PDT by Jrabbit
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To: Strategerist

This is gonna be nasty, where ever it hits.


395 posted on 08/26/2005 2:12:04 PM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: Tall_Texan
One of these times, he's bound to be right! =P
396 posted on 08/26/2005 2:13:19 PM PDT by Termite_Commander (Warning: Cynical Right-winger Ahead)
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To: Tall_Texan

Bastardi claimed Dennis would hit New Orleans, and that Emily would hit Texas.

And as best I can tell, yesterday he was talking about a quick sharp turn up into the Florida peninsula for Katrina.


397 posted on 08/26/2005 2:13:39 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: ncpatriot

We really need the rain.


398 posted on 08/26/2005 2:14:11 PM PDT by Aggie Mama
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To: nwctwx

oy....

not good...

I think if that eyewall closes up we may see a very rapid intensification rate.

Maybe there will be some big time eyewall cycles that will knock the intensity down some, but.....


399 posted on 08/26/2005 2:14:26 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (It's called having class.....)
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To: Diddle E. Squat
Bastardi is a drama queen with worse prediction accuracy than Terry McAuliffe.

You and that little birdie...speaking of Bastardi...he predicted the last cane a NC hit...it hit Mexico...LOL

400 posted on 08/26/2005 2:15:26 PM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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