LIVE THREAD: HURRICANE KATRINA (Cat 1)

NOAA-NHC ^ | 24 August 2005 | NOAA-NHC

[NautiNurse]

The twelfth tropical storm of the 2005 hurricane season is named Katrina. The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
TD 12 Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[STARWISE]

I would assume that to be Key Biscayne.

[onyx]

FNC just said that in some areas the storm has already dropped over ONE FOOT of rain. Imagine THAT.

[mhking]

FNC just said that in some areas the storm has already dropped over ONE FOOT of rain.

"Noah, how long can you tread water?"

[nwctwx]

If she comes off the coast looking anything like she is now, I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see a Cat3-4 off the coast of FL in the coming days.

[onyx]

There is a Key Biscayne, but I'm pretty sure there's a Bay Biscayne just a little north of Coral Gables.

[cajungirl]

At work today, nobody was even aware that this storm was coming. My daughter in Atlanta laughed at my concern over going there for the weekend. Nobody is up to speed on this storm.

[numberonepal]

Any bets on EWRC number?

[mhking]

Nobody is up to speed on this storm.

Snuck up on everybody...

[STARWISE]

Coral Gables borders Biscayne Bay .. but I didn't hear his comment.

[onyx]

LOL! I love gallows' humor. Not a laughing matter, but that's FUNNY.

[onyx]

95 mph winds at Biscayne Bay.

[STARWISE]

For broadband users ..

Read it and weep .. I pray these dry up!

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[shield]

Can you say HOUSTON, TEXAS...a major metro area...we had a small cat 3 in 1983 and the high rise buildings lost over a million dollars worth of class alone. These hugh, thick pieces of glass were falling all over downtown Houston...it was somethin'.... people lost electricity for 6 wks in some areas...

[Dog Gone]

Well, geez, I'm not positive of her forward speed at the moment, but that surely isn't as long as four hours until she hits the Gulf.

If they officially downgrade her to a tropical storm tonight, which she probably will be, it's only a five yard penalty with no loss of down, because she'll be back to hurricane status before I wake up tomorrow.

[lifacs]

8mph

[mhking]

If they officially downgrade her to a tropical storm tonight

Looking at the radar track, I don't know that they'll have time to downgrade her; she's moving too fast -- she'll be back over open water by the 3A update.

[SouthTexas]

she'll be back to hurricane status before I wake up tomorrow.

Probably long before, unless you get up REAL early.

[Libertarian444]

[Spiff]

The NOAA predicted storm track has been updated. The storm is taking a lightly more southerly route across the penninsula than expected. Here's the NOAA storm track overlayed on the Radar which is overlayed on the Google Earth composite Sat map. (2313 EDT)

[nwctwx]

Most models show very low shear environment once in the GOM. Unlike many GOM storms, there is no real trough to pull it apart scheduled to arrive anytime soon. She's basically meandering around between ridges.

If she comes in near AL/Pensacola, it's a good bet we see a major (cat3+) land falling hurricane. Further east could mean a weaker storm... tough to say though. I'm having a hard time forgetting what Dennis did in that region 1.5 months before it's normal to see such. Slow movement could lead to upwelling over the shallower waters, but the water in the gulf is warmer, and warmer deeper, than it was in July.