[nwctwx]

Most models show very low shear environment once in the GOM. Unlike many GOM storms, there is no real trough to pull it apart scheduled to arrive anytime soon. She's basically meandering around between ridges.

If she comes in near AL/Pensacola, it's a good bet we see a major (cat3+) land falling hurricane. Further east could mean a weaker storm... tough to say though. I'm having a hard time forgetting what Dennis did in that region 1.5 months before it's normal to see such. Slow movement could lead to upwelling over the shallower waters, but the water in the gulf is warmer, and warmer deeper, than it was in July.

[mhking]

but the water in the gulf is warmer, and warmer deeper, than it was in July

It's like a warm bathtub...